Wither The GOP?

After Iowa, Rudy Giuliani pronounced himself happy and satisfied with his strategy of skipping the state. And skipping New Hampshire, and South Carolina, and Michigan, Nevada and Wyoming too.

Here's Giuliani's best, and really only, hope. After Huckabee's win in Iowa, McCain takes New Hampshire. But then, just as everyone writes him off, Romney takes Michigan after McCain and Huckabee cancel each other out. Then, another close one in South Carolina between those three.

So, by the time Florida rolls around, there's no frontrunner (presumably, by then, Thompson has dropped out and endorsed McCain, which he almost did yesterday until he eked out third place in Iowa). Then, in the Giuliani playbook, Rudy wins Florida.

Ok, we could see that happening. But we can't see the part where that propels the Rudester to victory on February 5. At best, Giuliani would "win" by a small margin in a fractured field in Florida, leading the press to make what looked like a three-man race into a four-man race.

Then along comes February 5. All that would happen is a horribly divided Republican party remains . . . horribly divided. Each candidate wins a few states and some delegates, but no one emerges as the leader. At that point, the GOP is looking at a deadlock going into it's September convention, an ugly scenario if ever there was one. And no great way to break the deadlock.

There's another plausible scenario. McCain wins New Hampshire with a decent margin, say the same as Huck's over Mitt in Iowa. Thompson drops out and endorses McCain (not that these endorsements matter--the supporters scatter to the winds). Romney, having shot his wad, stumbles through to Michigan, but loses to McCain again, while Huckabee has a respectable showing (Michigan has a pretty large evangelical base). So Romney's done and drops out.

Now it goes to South Carolina, with Huckabee versus McCain. Either one could win in this scenario--the point is, it's now a two man race. They go on to Florida, where Giuliani has been waiting patiently. But wait--he can't afford to lose, not even by one vote. And suddenly all those former supporters of Fred and Mitt are turned loose. Are they going to jump on an uncertain Rudy bandwagon? Dubious.

Ok, so Rudy's lost Florida. He limps into Super-Duper Tuesday, wins New York and New Jersey, but nothing else, while McCain and Huckabee divide the other states. It's now a two-man race. And after a good show, Huckabee loses out to McCain, who turns around and makes Huckabee (who's otherwise unemployed) his veep pick.

That's not a bad outcome for the GOP--actually, a pretty viable ticket, with at least a shot at winning in November.