The Punditocracy Has It Wrong On The GOP Race

Now that we've digested last night's results and surveyed the punditocracy this morning, we have a few more thoughts on the Republican side of the presidential race.

1. While Democrats get a bit of a breather, the Republican field will continue at an all-out sprint. That's because in the next contest--Michigan (next Tuesday, January 15)--Obama and Edwards boycotted the ballot, so it really doesn't count for Democrats, whereas Republicans have a fully contested race (well, at least between McCain, Romney and Huckabee). Then Republicans have both Nevada and South Carolina on Saturday, January 19, but Democrats don't have SC until January 26. Florida is on January 26 for both parties, and then Super Duper Tuesday.

2. The pundits are being very unfair to Mitt Romney. Contrary to conventional wisdom, Romney does not have to win Michigan. He probably cannot afford to come in third there, but a strong second wouldn't finish him. We don't like Romney, but the claim that he's somehow finished is hogwash. At this point, the GOP race looks like a four-man field (if you count Giuliani--more on that below). In that field, Romney has one win--Wyoming--and two strong second places. McCain has a win, a fourth place and a tie for fourth (in Wyoming). Huckabee has a win, a third place and a tie for fourth (in Wyoming).

Romney leads in delegates, he has money and a national organization. All of that counts in a race that looks to go the distance. To anoint McCain at this point is silly, especially when NO Republican polls above 25% in national polls.

Romney is also well-positioned to win Nevada. The press may decide that some races are more important than others, but in such a crowded field, winning "inconsequential" races and coming in second in others is not a bad strategy. Wouldn't ol' Fred Thompson wish he was in Romney's shoes. If Romney wins Nevada and comes in second in Michigan, then he's got two firsts and three seconds and still the most delegates.

Romney's campaign does need to start managing expectations and make clear he's in for the long haul. And, if I was in Giuliani's campaign, I'd have the same message, otherwise McCain could look like a runaway winner before Florida.

3. While the pundits declare Romney dead, they're giving Giuliani a free pass for a suspect strategy. The fact is that Giuliani was the second highest spender in New Hampshire, after Romney, and he came in a very distant fourth. You can say that's because he didn't compete, but it would be false--he did compete, but then when it was clear he wasn't doing well, he took his ball and went home.

Likewise, Rudy spent a fair amount of energy on Iowa. Now he's retreated to Florida, but the press shouldn't let him off so easily. In any event, Rudy's Florida strategy is fatally flawed. In the most recent Florida poll, released yesterday from Insider Advantage, Rudy leads Huckabee and McCain by five points (24% to 19% for each of Huck and Mac).

Let's say that holds up and Rudy wins Florida by five--a big if, since the numbers will change in response to the upcoming contests that don't include Rudy. Big deal. That's hardly a resounding bounce into the February 5 mega-primaries. If you look at who's voting on Feb. 5, you see that all four candidates (and even Thompson if he's so inclined) have states they are likely to carry and states where they're likely to do poorly. It's not likely anyone could come out of Super Duper Tuesday with more than 40% of the delegates awarded that day--unless a couple guys drop out before then.

On the downside for Rudy, if he loses Florida, the pundits will say he's finished. (They'll be wrong, too.) As long as Rudy, Huck, Mitt and Mac keep going at this, it's anybody's game--or maybe no one's. And for that very reason, we think they'll keep at it.

4. There is one scenario for a "roll-up" by McCain. He wins Michigan and Romney drops out. McCain then gets Nevada and comes in second in SC and goes into Florida as a fairly clear front-runner and trounces Rudy. He might then have enough momentum on Super Duper Tuesday to knock out Huckabee.

5. Fred Thompson is done. He never had a strategy, or any passion. He could, however, stay in and try to collect Tennessee's delegates on February 5 and use that as a stake in case there is a deadlocked convention.