Should we even bother with the polls in Michigan after what happened in New Hampshire?
Well, the New Hampshire polls were pretty accurate with the GOP side of the race, so let's give it a try.
Six polls have been released in Michigan covering interviews conducted January 9 or later. Of those, three give Romney the lead and three give McCain the lead, with the largest lead for Romney at 8% and the largest for McCain at 7%. Huckabee is in third, about 9 points back.
(For a complete tabulation of the Michigan polls, go here.)
That means Michigan is a toss-up. A lot hangs in the balance: if McCain wins, his momentum could be enough to run the table in SC, Florida and Super Duper Tuesday. If Romney wins, however, it knocks McCain down a peg, gets the Mittster back into the race, keeps SC up in the air (leaning Huckabee) and even gives Giuliani a shot in Florida.
McCain could even come in third in Michigan--Huckabee's numbers may be a bit better than the polls, because his people will turnout. We think Romney is enjoying a mini-surge of support in Michigan, and it's not clear that independents, who McCain needs, will really turn out.
And, if Romney wins Michigan, he could end up with a very good week, as he has a good shot at Nevada with it's large Mormon population.
Looks to be another interesting week.