Happy Election Year!

It's a bit weird sitting here in a New Year, nursing a hangover, uninspired by the football bowl fare, and staring at the Iowa caucuses JUST TWO DAYS AWAY.

Let's hope that the political parties fix this insanity before the 2012 election.

Normally, we'd take New Year's Day off, but with Iowa looming and New Hampshire just a week away, we'll give you a quick update:

Democrats

On the Democratic side, Hillary, Obama and Edwards are basically tied. Polls can only get you so far in a caucus state--the outcome will depend on turnout, particularly, who gets their voters out Thursday night. Hillary's campaign is well-organized, which could give it an edge, but we think all three campaigns will do well. (And Democrats will turn out in twice the numbers of Republicans--consistently, in campaign coverage, you see that the Democratic rallies are far bigger than those of the Republicans in the state.)

We expect the three front-runners to end up very close to each other, with roughly 30% apiece. If Hillary wins, even by 1%, it's a victory for her. If she comes in third, trailing by 5% or more, it's a loss. Obama is fine if he wins or comes in a close second to Hillary. Edwards MUST win or he's probably done--he's staked his whole campaign on Iowa for the past four years. He'll declare some kind of victory if he trails Obama, but still beats Hillary, but it won't be enough to get him any traction in New Hampshire or South Carolina.

Speaking of New Hampshire, a poll came out today that could be very good news for Hillary in the Granite State: it has Hillary up 14 points over Obama at 36% to 22%, with Edwards far behind at 14%.

Republicans

On the GOP side, it looks like Huckabee has stabilized with a small lead over Romney, but again, it will all depend on the ground game. Romney has the organization, but Huckabee's followers have the fervor, so we'll see which wins out. The rest of the field is competing simply to come in third.

A big win for Huckabee would be beating Romney by anything greater than 5%. A big win for Romney would similary be beating Huckabee by 5% or more. Anything closer is basically a tie, although at this point Romney probably gets a boost by anything that can be called a "win" in Iowa, even if by the slimmest of margins.

The rest of the guys are competing for third place. McCain would get a good boost going into New Hampshire with a third place showing, with bonus points for anything better than 15%. Thompson MUST get third to have any chance of going on--and we don't think he'll get it. Giuliani really needs to avoid an embarassing sixth place finish. And, we wouldn't rule out Ron Paul pulling off a bit of shocker by coming in third himself--he has a dedicated corps and they just might pull it off.

For some of the Republican candidates, the Iowa results will be important going into New Hampshire. Romney desperately needs the win in Iowa to shore up his slipping candidacy in NH--indeed, a new poll there has McCain leading Romney 31%-25%. Likewise, McCain would benefit from a third place finish in Iowa, but he doesn't really need it. The rest of the field isn't really competitive in New Hampshire, although Ron Paul could, again, pull off third place in New Hampshire, which would be a big embarrassment to Giuliani and Thompson. Meanwhile, if Huckabee could pull off third in New Hampshire, it would give him some help going into South Carolina.

One other thing: what if Romney, per his campaign plan, does pull off wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, no matter how small the margins? He would be well on his way, but to where? David Brooks has a good column in today's NYT, "Road To Nowhere," positing that Romney's selection by the GOP would be a disaster for the party. We think that's right. It's an interesting analysis that pegs Romney pretty well.