Getting The SC Results Right

The Clinton gang is doing it's best to spin Hillary's crushing defeat in South Carolina this weekend at the hands of Barack Obama.

The big knock is that Obama allegedly failed to attract white voters because he got only 25% of the white vote in SC. What's important, however, is that undecided white voters broke almost entirely for Obama--he had only 10% in polls a couple days before the primary.

It's also significant that Obama got 25% of the white vote in a state where he was running against TWO very strong white candidates--Hillary, who ran well with white women in a primary where an amazing 61% of voters were women; and John Edwards, a semi-native son, who ran well in the upstate and among white men. The way we see it, Obama in fact demonstrated a breadth of support in the Palmetto state.

The Curmudgeon household seems to be a microcosm of the greater political universe: Mrs. Curmudgeon supports Hillary; the Curmudgeon kids love Obama; and the Curmudgeon is still undecided. However, the Clintons' spinning and posturing is making us start to lean toward Obama. (On the other hand, the Clintons' hard-fighting and clear desire to win makes us think Hillary will be tough enough to stand up to all the mud, crap and sleaze the GOP will throw at any Democratic candidate.)

A couple other thoughts on SC: turnout in the GOP primary--which was close to the end, and a hard-fought four-way battle--was lower than in 2000, despite a larger population; in contrast, Democrats had a record turnout, notwithstanding polls showing it probably wasn't that close. Now we're not saying SC will be blue in November--it won't, unless the Republicans nominate Giuliani (and even then I wouldn't bet real money on it). But Democrats are clearly enthusiastic.

Finally, the gender gap that is emerging is quite astounding. Democrats can look at the fact that 61% of their primary voters were women and say that's good, but it shows they have a problem with men. This is nothing new, but the gap appears to be growing.

On to Florida.