Thursday, January 17, 2008

The Republican Nomination Process Phantoms: Louisiana, Hawaii and Maine

Funny thing about the presidential nominating contests: the Mainstream Media anoints some contests as important and others as insignificant.

Remember the Republican caucuses in Wyoming after Iowa? Mitt Romney won, but the MSM deemed it not important. You can bet this, however: if McCain, Giuliani, Romney and Huckabee all make it past Feb. 5 with sufficient wins to be viable, those Wyoming delegates could be crucial.


The MSM is also ignoring some other upcoming Republican contests that could end up being important in a four-way race: Lousiana, which holds its caucuses on January 22--next Tuesday--with 47 delegates at stake (twice as many as SC); Hawaii, where 20 delegates will be up for grabs on January 25 (before Florida), and Maine, with 21 delegates awarded on February 1.


That same MSM is also playing down the Nevada caucus (34 delegates) on the GOP side this weekend, while playing up the South Carolina primary.


Believe us, it's a mistake for the media to ignore these contests. For some reason, the punditocracy thinks it's a normal election year, and all they can focus on is the "horse race." They keep thinking that whoever wins the next contest will quickly lap the field and sew up the nomination.


That's not how it's working out, however. Indeed, for all the criticism heaped on Romney for losing Iowa and then New Hampshire, Romney is the only candidate so far to compete in EVERY contest, and that could be a terrific strategy in a delegate slog.


The chattering class seems to think it's fine for a candidate to take a bye on a particular race where he's weak, then show up where he's strong. If the NFL worked that way, no one would play the Patriots.


It's not clear who will try to contest for Louisiana, Hawaii and Maine--we suspect Romney will, McCain should, Huckabee oughta in La. at least, and if Giuliani doesn't then, well, he's a wimp. And the MSM should give these states (who did not buck party rules to get in early) their share of coverage.


One thing you can count on: the Curmudgeon will be there (figuratively) for you. (In case you're wondering, the Dems don't have contests in those states until after Feb. 5.)


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