Thursday, January 03, 2008

Iowa Polls: Huckabee and ????

Let's see if the Iowa polls are worth anything. On the GOP side, they clearly predict Huckabee by a small margin, with ARG, Zogby, Insider Advantage and the Des Moines Register all giving the Arkansan a 5-6 point advantage over Romney in their final polls.

So it's up to Romney to prove the polls are meaningless--as they may well be. It's very tricky predicting who will actually show up.

On the Democratic side, the polls are not consistent enough to make a prediction based on them, especially since it's a three candidate race, instead of two as on the Republican side. Of the final six polls, two have Hillary in the lead, four have Obama in the lead, and of those three have Hillary in third place. So the only issue will be whether any of the polls get it right, and hence get bragging rights.

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