Iowa Is Fun, But New Hampshire's The Real Deal

We'll certainly enjoy the spectacle unfolding tonight in Iowa, and will no doubt put up a post or two late tonight on what it all means with New Hampshire just five days away.

But we can already tell you this much: it doesn't mean all that much. Indeed, it would be kind of neat if Huckabee and Edwards won tonight, just to prove the point, because we doubt either could get the nomination even if they do win.

New Hampshire is where the real action is, as David Broder points out in today's Washington Post. (See "Wait For New Hampshire.") In the past 30 years, Iowa has rarely picked the eventual nominee when there's a wide open contest in either party, whereas New Hampshire has often been on the mark.

Still, momentum out of Iowa will count for something going into New Hampshire.

And, it really doesn't pay to simply skip Iowa because--Rudy Giuliani, are you listening?--then you're name is out of play at a time of immense media interest. Does Rudy G. REALLY think he's getting more mileage out of some appearance in Florida that's getting NO coverage, while the Florida media, along with everyone else, is reporting on what's happening in Iowa (and then New Hampshire)?

If anything, the real indictment against Giuliani from this whole process is that he lacks the judgment to hire good people, and the competence to vet their advice. If that sounds like a familiar problem that our current President has had for at least the past seven years, then you realize just how scary a Rudy presidency could be.