We just finished reviewing at least a dozen articles analyzing the results from yesterday's Republican contests in Nevada and South Carolina, and we while we shouldn't be surprised, not a one mentioned that both Lousiana and Hawaii are holding closed party caucuses next Tuesday.
We looked around on RealClearPolitics.com, and there's no mention there either. Maybe we're just dreaming.
McCain is not likely to do well in closed caucuses--his strength has been among independents and moderates in open primaries. Romney, on the other hand, has done a good job of courting the party faithful in the Wyoming and Nevada caucuses, but in both he had a lot of help from Mormons.
To us here, it will be quite interesting to see how the candidates do in these two diverse caucus states, because they are, in a sense, like the Super Duper Tuesday states: contests where no one candidate can focus his resources.
If McCain does win in either Louisiana (less likely) or Hawaii (more moderate) then it's a terrific sign for him that he truly is consolidating front-runner status. If Romney--or someone else--wins those states, then it goes to show that McCain still has a big problem in trying to secure his party's nomination, no matter what the Media wants you to believe.
We won't update our analysis of the Super Duper Tuesday contests until after the Hawaii/Louisiana caucuses. We have, however, seen one poll result that gives McCain some very good news and suggests he could do much better than our initial predictions: in Connecticut, McCain commands a huge lead in a Hartford Courant poll, with 39% to Giuliani's 16% and Romney's 13%. While that sounds great--after all, Giuliani and Romney are from the two neighboring states--we have to remember that Connecticut is Joe Lieberman territory, a state where most Republicans are moderates or independents.
Our final thought: will Thompson drop out and endorse his friend John McCain? We doubt it. Thompson is doing McCain more good by running than by dropping out. Thompson might endorse the Straight Talker, but his supporters are unlikely to vote for McCain. More likely, they'll peel off to Romney and Huckabee, making McCain weaker. Indeed, it is quite clear that but for Thompson in SC, Huckabee would've beat McCain. So look for Thompson to limp along.
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4 comments:
Hey, your website is great, we are political junkies and have it bookmarked.
Anyway, can you tell me where you got your info on the LA and HI caucuses? From what we have found (here: http://mikeforpresident.wordpress.com/2008/01/14/louisiana-caucus-january-22/ for LA) the LA caucus is to choose delegates, who are uncommitted until the Presidential Preference Primary on Feb 9th. My understanding was that HI did something similar, with a week-long delegate-choosing process.
Maybe I am missing something, the whole is pretty confusing to me as it is...
- Katie.
I would say you have nailed the question. We'll find out in Florida. I'm not quite as down on Giuliani as you have been particularly since no other candidate has been able to stop McCain from winning. As a result, Giuliani has become the defacto 'stop-McCain candidate' and there are many folks interested in doing just that. The reasons have been expressed over and over again, but I would sum it all up by saying McCain has simply poked Republicans in the eye too many times. Now, as you and others have pointed out, M and G pull votes from the same pool, so who gets them in a closed primary will be interesting to see indeed.
Katie--
Thanks for your comment--so sorry we're taking so long to get back to you; we've been on the road this weekend. Anyway, your comment made the Curmudgeon take a closer look at both Louisiana and Hawaii, and we definitely need to add some further explanation. Actually, we can kind of see why the media is ignoring them--they are incredibly complicated affairs, borne of Republican paranoia about "outsiders" influencing their processes. We will add something shortly on this to help clarify.
Keep the comments coming!
Curm - one might argue that it is outsiders who have given McCain his wins thus far...perhaps justifying some of that paranoia.
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