Don't Count Out Hillary Or Romney, Even If Both Lose New Hampshire (As Expected)

That was fast--the New Hampshire primary is tomorrow already. And just like that, pundits and politicos are prognosticating that Obama will be the Democratic nominee, and that Mitt Romney's campaign will be finished if, as expected, the NH winners are Obama and McCain.

Not so fast.

We fully expect another Obama victory. The man is on a HOT streak. He may even win by 10 points or more. And that will give him considerable momentum--enough, at the least, to run the table through Nevada, Michigan and South Carolina.

But don't count Hillary out. She's got the money, she's got the party mainstream, she's got the ambition, and she's got the drive to keep at it. Remember when McCain was done? Hillary will be able to stick it out through February 5 and the Super Duper Tuesday primaries.

In the meantime, Obama will become the frontrunner, and that stubborn little pest John Edwards will fade away. As the frontrunner, Obama will undergo a different kind of scrutiny. Suddenly, the smallest little mis-step, the gentlest of gaffes, will make the news.

Further, a lot of Democrats not quite yet swept up in Obamania will have to ask themselves, "what do we really know about this guy?" There will be revelations. Obama's bound to slip up--maybe not big time, but something. And the expectations for him will be oh so much higher.

If we were betting real money right now, we'd have to give Obama the edge--he's got momentum and lot else going for him. He really does look Kennedy-esqe. But we wouldn't bet the house--Hillary's got the resources and she could still win the nomination.

Likewise, many in the commentariat are saying that Romney is finished if he doesn't win New Hampshire. Certainly, we'd agree, he's wounded. But he's not dead yet.

Like Hillary, Romney has the resources to continue to compete up through Super Duper Tuesday. And it's a bit much to write him off so quickly in a five-man field. After all, Romney would have won two second place finishes in hotly contested races. Yes, he was the leader for some time in both Iowa and New Hampshire, but he never came close to leading in national polls.

More to the point, there's no reason for Romney to concede anything to the rest of the field. McCain could emerge from New Hampshire as the "front-runner," but a fellow standing at 20% in national polls who is unpopular with a significant percentage of Republicans is hardly running away with it. McCain could win Michigan--with Romney again in second (or Huckabee)--but then Huckabee will probably take South Carolina, and any of them could take Nevada.

That then sets up the showdown in Florida to see if Rudy can vindicate his strategy. If Rudy wins, then there's no clear front-runner. Even if McCain gets a narrow victory, with say 30% of the Florida vote, that's hardly a ringing endorsement.

Romney should stay in through Super Duper Tuesday. So should Thompson. There's a good chance that no one emerges from that contest with a clear lead: Rudy gets NY, NJ, Connecticut; Romney gets Utah, Massachusetts; Thompson could get Tennessee; Huckabee gets Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, maybe Missouri, Oklahoma; McCain wins Arizona and a few other western states and maybe Minnesota. California is up for grabs.

So now everyone's got some delegates and the rest of the race is a muddle. Romney goes to the convention with enough delegates to make an impact and anything can happen over a long summer of bargaining and bickering. He could still end up the nominee.

It's true that Romney's original strategy for winning--sweep Iowa and NH--would be in tatters, but it wouldn't mean he couldn't win it all.

Meanwhile, maybe such a mess will convince at least Republican Party leaders that they REALLY need to do something about the crazy nominating calendar!