For Democrats, Super-Duper Tuesday is pretty simple: Hillary or Obama. Each will get delegates in every state because there are no winner-take-all contests.
Obama will carry Illinois pretty handily while Hillary takes New York with ease. Apart from those states, most will be pretty close if polls are any indication.
Hillary seems to have a bit of an edge, but what about the McCain factor?
For many Democrats, it was hard to believe, until just a few days ago, that McCain could really emerge as the GOP nominee. That does change the calculus: McCain has tremendous support among independents and moderates, precisely because he isn't afraid to tell Rush Limbaugh and his ilk to go to hell.
McCain is, in fact, quite conservative, but thanks to the holier-than-thou wing of the Republican Party, he comes across as a moderate. And the media does like him, quite a bit, so they cut him a break when it comes to private asides that could cause him trouble.
So, if you're a Democrat and you're facing McCain in November, what do you do? There's a good case to be made for nominating Obama: he's a good contrast to McCain--much younger, has appeal to independents, energizes young people, presents the face of change.
But then there's also a good case for Hillary: energizes women, fights hard, hits back, has more experience on national security issues. She also presents a face of change--c'mon, the first woman President?
We're still undecided, but we're concerned. A lot of people, including a lot of independents, really don't like Hillary. Most people do like Obama, and probably still will even after the Republican slime machine gets going in earnest. But Obama is still pretty new at this, and he could trip up, although it's been a grueling campaign so far and he still looks just as clean and fresh as when Biden shot himself in the foot with a similar remark.
We'll wait and see what happens on Tuesday. We think it will still be very close when the dust settles, and then the Curmudgeon will have to make up his mind, since the Virginia primary will, at that point, be only a week away (Feb. 12).
2 comments:
McCain doesn't stand a chance with the Democrats this year, imho. I'm one of those independents of which you speak, and there is no chance that a show-off between McCain and Obama/Hillary will not inevitably be war/anti-war.
McCain has a steady record as a neo-conservative, and a lot of the independents, even if they are right-leaning, are not necessarily pro-war. I think that will be the key issue if Mccain gets the nomination. Frankly, I don't see any reason other than his military record for why he is garnering so much support. He is admittedly weak on the economy, and in the debates he consistantly tries to pull things back to Iraq and the surge. He comes off as a war-mongrel, and nothing he does is going to save that image.
I despise Hillary with the best of them, but I despise the thought of more men and women dying overseas even more. I will vote for Obama in the primaries, b/c he is a great uniting force. However, if Hillary gets the nomination, I will have to hold my nose in November and vote for her.
Katie, I hope you're right!
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