After the punditocracy said Romney would be dead if he lost Iowa and New Hampshire, his zombie has returned to capture Michigan.After the punditocracy said McCain would run all the way to the nomination after capturing New Hampshire, his stumble in Motor City could prove fatal.
Next up is South Carolina, where a win by Huckabee--or heaven forbid, Freddie Thompson (is he still running?)--would further scramble the race going into Florida and Super Tuesday.
Giuliani's people are no doubt cheering--they're like one of those football teams that can't get into the playoffs on it's own, but instead has to have another team (in this case, McCain) lose. But it hardly vindicates Giuliani's strategy. He could yet win Florida--by a small margin--but that will only set up a very messy day on February 5, with the likelihood that all five major candidates (if Thompson makes it that far) would capture at least one state (Thompson=Tennessee), with Huckabee, Romney, McCain and Giuliani all getting three or four apiece.
Romney's win puts the GOP back--potentially--on a path to deadlock. There's still another way: if McCain earns a convincing victory in South Carolina Saturday, then pulls out any kind of win in Florida, he should get the nomination. The only way McCain gets there, however, is for his friend Fred T. to take just enough votes away from Huckabee to open the door.
Will South Carolina, which derailed the Straight Talk Express in 2000, be the spark that propels McCain to the nomination? Or will the Palmetto State once again be the last station stop? We'll know in a few days.
Meanwhile, it's not all that clear where Romney goes from here. He certainly can win Massachusetts and Utah on Super Tuesday, maybe Nevada this Saturday. But how does he get the delegates to win? We don't see it.
2 comments:
Well, I think Romney's win tonight might be his only win for a while.
Giuliani is the real winner tonight. His strategy has a real chance of working. 3 Primaries, 3 different winners.
One man's prediction: McCain will not win South Carolina, I don't care what the polls say. Republican voters down there are very agitated at McCain for supporting amnesty. So, we're looking at either Huckabee or Thompson, probably Huckabee.
Giuliani has spent more money and more time in FL than any other candidate. His voter outreach there is phenomenal and he's got an extensive absentee ballot program. So another shift of the winds in favor of Huckabee from SC let's say may bump people up in the polls, but Giuliani will win in FL.
Then, you have the big states. Mass, NY, California, NJ and other populous states all give Giuliani a huge advantage. If I'm Giuliani's campaign manager, I'm having a well deserved beer right now.
We agree that Romney's not likely to win again before Super Tuesday (although he might pull out a victory in Nevada).
As for Giuliani, yes, he's still alive--had McCain won tonight, he'd be toast. But Giuliani is hardly healthy. He's staked too much on Florida, but we'll give him Florida.
Then what happens? You list Mass. as one of those populous states, but that one's going to Romney. We'll give Rudy NJ and NY for sure, maybe Connecticut. Yet, that's just three out of 22 states voting on Feb. 5. California is critical, but we don't see Rudy having any advantage there, especially if he's out of money.
Stay tuned. Later this week we'll do an in depth review of Super Duper Tuesday and where the delegates are likely to go.
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