The Double Deadlock Scenario

Last night's result in the Democratic race in New Hampshire, with Hillary making a "comeback," raises a new spectre--the Double Deadlock scenario.

[As an aside, we have to wonder about the media's role in painting these "victories" and "defeats." If the polls had shown Hillary with the lead that they instead attributed--falsely--to Obama, then Hillary's three point victory would have been portrayed much differently, maybe even as Obama exceeding expectations. The delegate count puts it where it should be: a tie.]

For months now, we've speculated about the possibility of a Republican deadlock, i.e., no one in the field having a majority of delegates before the convention. That possibility remains quite real, with four viable candidates, none of whom draws better than 25% support in national polls. If those four stay in the race and divide the delegates along their poll lines, no one will have a majority.

But we haven't discussed the possibility of a Democratic deadlock as well, the conventional wisdom being that the Dem race would quickly come down to two candidates. But we now have to consider the possibility. The Democratic Party awards delegates much more proportionally than the Republicans. The result is that although Hillary won yesterday, she and Obama got the same number of delegates. Likewise, in Iowa, Obama won, but got only one more delegate than Hillary.

And, in both races, Edwards won a few delegates. Edwards says he going to stay in it for the long haul, and he may very well do so. If that's the case and he gets 15-20% of the delegates while Hillary and Obama go back and forth, then the Dems could end up in a deadlock, too.

We wouldn't put it past Edwards to be a spoiler, with his huge ego. And we wouldn't put it past Democratic voters to consistently give him 15-20% of the vote--he appeals to the "angry" Democrats who believe his schpiel that the world's woes are caused by corporate greed.

We don't think a deadlock would be good for either party. A double deadlock might even things out, but it would encourage third party candidacies and lead to an endless summer of speculation and hand wringing. The odds of a deadlock on the Democratic side are still pretty low, but if neither Hillary nor Barack comes out of February 5 with a clear advantage, the odds go up.

Meanwhile, just think of the irony here: everyone moved their nominating contests up this year because they wanted their votes to "count," to be "meaningful." And yet it now turns out that the LATE nominating states may have the more meaningful say.