Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Early Voting Update: October 29

Xcurmudgeon has the most comprehensive collection of early voting demographic data and exit poll data of any blog around.

For twice daily updated comprehensive list of states with early voting data, including results of more than 30 polls that include the preferences of voters who have ALREADY VOTED in this election, click HERE.

At 3:00 pm today we updated our data with results from more than 10 new polls with breakouts of early voting preferences.

Here are the highlights:

Ohio: two new polls, on top of two yesterday, give us a pretty good picture of Ohio early voters. In a Roper poll, Obama led 56%-28% among early voters, who made up nearly 30% of the sample. The margin was a bit smaller in a Quinnipiac poll, but still heavily favored Obama, 57%-41%. These results are consistent with yesterday's polls. For all the Ohio results, including links to each poll, click HERE.

Florida: two new polls here as well. In the Roper poll, Obama leads among early voters by 45%-38%. In that poll, more than 40% of the sample reported having already voted. We do have concerns about the large number of respondents who refused to answer as to who they voted for, however (14%). In the Quinnipiac poll, Obama leads by a larger margin, 58%-34%. Quinnipiac, however, did not say what percentage of its respondents had already voted. The Quinnipiac result is much more favorable for Obama than other polls of Florida--some of which have had McCain leading the early voting--so we view it as a possible outlier. For all the Florida results so far, as well as some demographic information (where the trend is in favor of Obama as more early voters vote in-person), click HERE.

Colorado: In Colorado, early voting already accounts for as much as 40-50% of the expected vote. In the Roper poll, 59% of the sample (!) reported already voting, and they went for Obama by 57%-34%. It this poll is accurate, then it may be all but over in Colorado, as McCain would have to win more than 60% of the remaining vote to pull out a win! More details here.

Nevada: Another state where as much as half the electorate may have already voted. In the Roper poll, 51% of respondents said they'd already voted and they went heavily for Obama, by 56%-33%. Again, that would make for a huge mountain for McCain to climb with remaining voters. HERE for details.

North Carolina: This is a battleground state thought to be pretty close. We now have quite a few exit polls that confirm what the demographic data show on early voters--they heavily favor Obama. In NC, it will all come down to overall turnout and turnout among African-Americans. In the Roper poll, 39% of the survey had already voted--consistent with statistics reported by the State Board of Elections--and Obama leads among those early voters by 59%-33%. This is consistent with two other polls. Details HERE.

We also have new data (from Survey USA) for the state of Washington, where more than half of voters have already cast their ballots. As expected, Obama is leading by a wide margin, 59%-37%.

And, we have additional data from Roper for New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia--all states with only traditional absentee balloting, so with smaller samples of voters who've already voted. In each of those states, Obama has a huge lead over McCain among those absentee voters. Details here.

Finally, we've updated demographic data from some southern states showing a huge African-American turnout among early voters and suggesting that Obama may well take Georgia if the trend continues.

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