Thursday, October 30, 2008

Early Voting Polls and Demographic Data: All Here!

Over the past two weeks, we've been carefully compiling data on early voting: demographic data on early voters, as well as polls that separately break out the preferences of respondents who've already voted--akin to (but not nearly as scientific as) election day exit polls.

(Note: Updates on 11/4: Survey USA poll of Florida; Harris, Rasmussen national polls.)

(Note: Updates on 11/3 include: PPP polls from FL, GA, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, NC, OH, PA, Nevada, VA: Quinnipiac polls from FL and OH; Survey USA from GA, OH, WA; National polls from ABC/Wash. Post, NBC/WSJ, FOX & Hotline)

We've put them all here--we now have more than 80 early voting exit polls, with more showing up every day.

Note that for our purposes "early voting" is any process--absentee ballot, mail voting, in-person unrestricted early voting--whereby a voter may cast his/her ballot before election day. In 2004, roughly 20% of voters nationwide voted early. Experts predict an even higher percentage this year--as much as 25-33%.

We've gotten some of our demographic information from George Mason University Prof. McDonald's excellent blog on the topic, which you can also check out for additional information on other states. According to McDonald, a majority of early voters in 2004 were Republicans. This year, the trend is going the other way, especially in battleground states.

Here's what we have so far, which is updated daily, divided between national polls and state polls. For each poll, we give you the pollster, with a link to the pollster's data, the dates the survey was taken, and the percentage of the overall survey sample that reported having voted early. We then give you the preferences of the EARLY VOTERS in that poll. We've tried to keep them in chronological order, with the most recent poll listed first.




National Early Voting

Harris Poll (10/30-11/3) (29% of sample)
Obama 55%
McCain 40%

Rasmussen (11/1-11/3) (36% of sample)
"those [early] voters favored Obama by a double-digit margin."


ABC/Wash. Post (10/31-11/2) (33% of sample)
Obama 58% (18%)
McCain 40%

Fox News (11/1-11/2) (29% of sample)
Obama 48% (+1)
McCain 47%

NBC/Wall Street Journal (11/1-11/2) (30% of sample)
No breakdown of early voters. Text says: "The early voters' views reflect to overall electorate's." Obama leads by 8 points, 51%-43% in the overall poll.


Diageo/Hotline (10/31/11/2) (27% of sample)
Obama 51% (+5)
McCain 46%

CBS/NYT (10/29-10/31) (20% of sample)
Obama 57% (+19)
McCain 38%
NOTE: The Final CBS poll, taken 10/31-11/2, included 24% who had already voted, but CBS did not provide a separate breakdown of who they voted for.

Diageo/Hotline (10/30-11/1) (27% of sample)
Obama 51% (+5)
McCain 46%


Pew (10/30-11/1) (26% of sample)
Results of already voted not reported separately


Democracy Corps (10/30-11/2) (22% of sample)
Results of already voted not reported separately


ABC/Wash. Post (10/29-10/31) (16% of sample)
Results of already voted not reported separately


Zogby (10/30-11/1) (?% of sample)
Obama 56% (+17)
McCain 39%


Gallup (10/30-11/2) (28% of sample)
No data, but Gallup says the results "skew toward Obama"


Gallup (10/27-10/29) (21% of sample)
Obama 55% (+15)
McCain 40%


CBS/NYTimes (10/25-10/29) (17% of sample)
Obama 55% (+20)
McCain 35%


Fox News (10/28-10/29) (22% of sample)
Obama 52% (+9)
McCain 43%


Hotline/Diageo (10/27-10/29) (19% of sample)
Obama 55% (+19)
McCain 36%


Economist (Oct. 25-27) (23% of sample)
Obama 59% (+18)
McCain 41%


ABC/Wash. Post (Oct. 26-29) (11% of sample)
Obama 59% (+19)
McCain 40%


Harris (Oct. 20-27) (12% of sample)
Obama 51% (+9)
McCain 42%


Gallup (Oct. 25-28) (18% of sample)
Obama 53% (+10)
McCain 43%


Diageo/Hotline (Oct. 25-28) (17% of sample reports having already voted; no breakdown of how they voted.)


Pew (Oct. 23-26) A national Pew survey of roughly 1500 voters found that 15% had already voted, but did not provide a breakdown of who they voted for.


Also, here's a memo from the Obama campaign with it's own data breakdown for some key states, comparing 2008 early voting turnout by party with the numbers from 2004.


California Early Voting


SUSA (10/29-10/31)) (38% of sample)
Obama 57% (+19)
McCain 38%



Colorado Early Voting



Public Policy Polling (Oct. 28-30) (65% of sample)
Obama 58% (+17)
McCain 41%


Marist (Oct. 27-28) (44% of sample)
Obama 59% (+18)
McCain 41%



Roper (Oct. 22-26) (59% of sample)
Obama 57 (+23)
McCain 34



Georgia Early Voting


SUSA (10/30-11/2) (56% of sample)
Obama 50% (+2)
McCain 48%


Public Policy Polling (10/31-11/2) (57% of sample)
Obama 52 (+5)
McCain 47

Research 2000 (10/28-10/30) (12% of sample)
Obama 55 (+15)
McCain 40


SUSA (as of 10/12) (18% of sample)
Obama 52% (+6)
McCain 46%


GEORGIA EARLY VOTING DEMOGRAPHIC DATA (FINAL DATA)
Early votes: 2,020,839
Percent white: 60.4%
Percent black: 34.9% (Blacks make up 29% of Ga. registered voters)
Percent women: 56.2%
Percent men: 40.6%
2008 early vote as % of 2004 total vote: 61%


Florida Early Voting

SUSA (10/31-11/3) (58% of sample)
Obama 58% (+18)
McCain 40%
Public Policy Polling (10/31-11/2) (56% of sample)
Obama 56% (+13)
McCain 43%


Quinnipiac (10/27-11/2) (?% of sample)
Obama 51% (+13)
McCain 38%


Datamar (Nov. 2) (60% of sample)
Datamar (Oct. 31) (51% of sample)
No breakdown of early voters versus all voters



Roper (Oct. 22-26) (43.5%)
Obama 45% (+7)
McCain 38%


Quinnipiac (Oct. 22-26) (?% of sample)
Obama 58% (+24)
McCain 34%


LA Times/Bloomberg (Oct. 25-27) (21% of sample)
Obama 45%
McCain 49% (+4)


SUSA (as of 10/16) (13% of sample)
Obama 45
McCain 53% (+8)


Quinnipiac (10/16-10/21) (?% of sample)
Obama 48% (+4)
McCain 44%


St. Petersburg Times poll: no data, but text describing findings (poll taken Oct. 20-22) says "McCain and Obama were tied among people who already had voted."


FLORIDA EARLY VOTING DEMOGRAPHIC DATA (thru 11/2/08)
Early votes: 4,272,280
Percent Democrat: 45.7%
Percent Republican: 37.2%
2008 early vote as % of 2004 total vote: 56%


Illinois Early Voting


Big 10 Battleground (10/19-10/22) (2.1% of sample)
Obama 83% (+67)
McCain 17%


Indiana Early Voting

Public Policy Polling (10/31-11/2)(22% of sample)
Obama 64% (+29)
McCain 35%
SUSA (10/29-10/30) (17% of sample)
Obama 64% (+32)
McCain 32%


Big 10 Battleground (10/19-10/22) (1.9% of sample)
Obama 100% (+100)
McCain 0%

Iowa Early Voting


SUSA (as of 10/29) (32% of sample)
Obama 69% (+40)
McCain 29%


SUSA(as of 10/9) (14% of sample)
Obama 65% (+34)
McCain 31%


Big 10 Battleground (10/19-10/22) (3.4% of sample)
Obama 70% (+40)
McCain 30%


Kentucky Early Voting


Research 2000 (Oct. 27-29) (16% of sample)
Obama 44
McCain 52 (+8)
Note: in the same early voting sample, GOP incumbent Mitch McConnell is losing to his Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford 56%-44%.


Louisiana Early Voting



LOUSIANA EARLY VOTING DEMOGRAPHIC DATA (thru 10/28):
Total casting early votes: 266,880
Democrats: 58.5%
Republicans: 28.45%
Black: 36.3% (Note: African-Americans make up 30.4% of La. registered voters)
White: 60.8%
Men: 43.5%
Women: 56.5%
Early voters as % of 2004 election: 13.6%


Maine Early Voting



SUSA (as of 10/21) (14% of sample)
Obama 61% (+27)
McCain 34%


Michigan Early Voting


Public Policy Polling (Oct. 28-30) (29% of sample)
Obama 60% (+20)
McCain 40%


Big 10 Battleground (10/19-10/22) (1% of sample)
Obama 60% (+20)
McCain 40%

Minnesota Early Voting

Research 2000 (10/27-10/29) (16% of sample)
Obama 58%
McCain 34%


Public Policy Polling (10/28-10/30) (9% of sample)
Obama 59% (+20)
McCain 39%


Big 10 Battleground (10/19-10/22) (.6% of sample)
Obama 33%
McCain 66% (+33)


Mississippi Early Voting



Research 2000 (10/27-10/29) (16% of sample)
Obama 49% (+4)
McCain 45


Missouri Early Voting

Public Policy Polling (10/31-11/2) (12% of sample)
Obama 56% (+13)
McCain 43%


Montana Early Voting


Public Policy Polling (10/31-11/2) (38% of sample)
Obama 61% (+26)
McCain 35%

Nevada Early Voting

Public Policy Polling (10/31-11/2) (71% of sample!)
Obama 57%
McCain 43%

Roper (Oct. 22-26) (51% of sample)
Obama 56 (+23)
McCain 33


New Hampshire Early Voting


Roper (Oct. 22-26) (10%)
Obama 52 (+18)
McCain 34


New Mexico Early Voting


Public Policy Polling (10/28-10/30) (56%)

Obama 64% (+28)
McCain 36%


SUSA (as of 10/13) (10% of sample)
Obama 60% (+23)
McCain 37%


North Carolina Early Voting

Survey USA (10/30-11/2) (57% of sample)
Obama 56% (+15)
McCain 41%
Note: Dem. challenger Kay Hagan leads GOP incumbent Elizabeth Dole by 58%-39%.
Public Policy Polling (10/31-11/2) (63% of sample)
Obama 55% (+10)
McCain 45%
Note: Dem. challenger Kay Hagan leads GOP incumbent Dole by 56-41.

Research 2000 (Oct. 28-30) (19% of sample)
Obama 52% (+12)
McCain 40 %


Civitas (10/27-10/29) (39% of survey)
Obama 58% (+19)
McCain 39%


Roper (10/22-10/26) (39% of survey)
Obama 59% (+26)
McCain 33%


Public Policy Polling (as of 10/26) (33% of survey)
Obama 63% (+27)
McCain 36%


SUSA (as of 10/20) (14% of sample)
Obama 59% (+23)
McCain 36%


CIVITAS (as of 10/20) (4% of sample (volunteered))
Obama 64% (+32)
McCain 32%


NORTH CAROLINA EARLY VOTING DEMOGRAPHIC DATA (thru 10/31/08)


Early votes: 2,597,650
Percent white: 69.1%
Percent black: 26.6 (Note: blacks are 21% of NC registered voters)
Percent Democrat: 51.5%
Percent Republican: 30.1%
Percent Women: 56.4%
Percent Men: 42.8%
2008 early vote as % of 2004 total vote: 73%
2008 early vote as % of all registered voters: 42%
Note: Early voting in NC has now closed. This appears to be the final data.


Ohio Early Voting

SUSA (10/30-11/2) (36% of sample)
Obama 60% (+24)
McCain 36%


Public Policy Polling (10/31-11/1) (30% of sample)
Obama 65% (+31)
McCain 34%

Quinnipiac (10/27-11/2) (?% of sample)
Obama 64% (+38)
McCain 26%


Columbus Dispatch (10/22-10/31) (?% of sample)
Obama 56% (+14)
McCain 42%

Roper (10/22-26) (29% of sample)
Obama 56% (+28)
McCain 28%


Quinnipiac (10/22-26) (? of sample)
Obama 57% (+16)
McCain 41%


SUSA (as of 10/27) (22% of sample)
Obama 56% (+17)
McCain 39%


LA Times/Bloomberg (10/25-10/27) (21% of sample)
Obama 57% (+22)
McCain 35%


SUSA (as of 10/13) (12% of sample)
Obama 57% (+18)
McCain 39%


Quinnipiac (10/16-10/21) (?% of sample)
Obama 71% (+51)
McCain 20%


Big 10 Battleground (10/19-10/22) (2.7% of sample)
Obama 66% (+33)
McCain 33%


Oregon Early Voting


Research 2000 (10/27-10/29) (39% of sample)
Obama 60% (+27)
McCain 33%


Public Policy Polling (Oct. 28-30) (59% of sample)
Obama 64% (+29)
McCain 35%


SUSA (10/25) (50% of sample)
Obama 62% (+28)
McCain 34%
(In the hard fought Senate race, Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley leads incumbent Republican Gordon Smith in the early voting by 51%-41%)


Pennsylvania Early Voting


Public Policy Polling (5% of sample)
Obama 62% (+24)
McCain 38%


Roper (Oct. 22-26) (12% of sample)
Obama 65 (+43)
McCain 22


Texas Early Voting


El Paso Times (10/24) (100% of sample) [Note: this is a poll only of El Paso voters, taken as they left early voting sites.]
Obama 69% (+46)
McCain 23%


Virginia Early Voting


Public Policy Polling (16% of sample)
Obama 63% (+27)
McCain 36%


Roper (Oct. 22-26) (12.5% of sample)
Obama 67% (+44)
McCain 23%


SUSA (10/26) (9% of sample)
Obama 67%
McCain 30%



Washington Early Voting
SUSA (10/31-11/2) (72%)
Obama 58% (+19)
McCain 39%
SUSA (10/28)(54% of sample)
Obama 59% (+22)
McCain 37%


West Virginia Early Voting


Public Policy Polling (10/28-10/30) (17% of sample)
Obama 50% (+1)
McCain 49%


Wisconsin Early Voting


SUSA (as of 10/29)(19% of sample)
Obama 61% (+27)
McCain 34%


SUSA (as of 10/19) (11% of sample)
Obama 52% (+15)
McCain 37%


Big 10 Battleground (10/19-10/22) (1.3% of sample)
Obama 63% (+26)
McCain 37%


Wyoming Early Voting


SUSA (as of 10/20) (14% of sample)
Obama 41%
McCain 55% (+14)

14 comments:

CA Pol Junkie said...

The Florida poll results are interesting in how they follow the party breakdowns we've been watching. The initial surge of Republican absentee ballots was followed by sustained Democratic early voting. Thanks for compiling all this data!

fallout said...

Those numbers for Montana are almost as skewed as I have noticed: every single person I know who has voted early (~30 people) has voted Obama. Almost all of them have voted Schweitzer and most voted for Baucus.

Anonymous said...

As soon as I heard the Fox News numbers on early voters this evening (indicating 48%-47% in favor of Obama), I raced over to this site to see how Fox managed to massage the numbers to get such a close result. I've reviewed the internals and still don't see where Fox came up with that. Am I missing something?

X Curmudgeon said...

We haven't figured out Fox's result yet, either. Maybe they did a lot of calls to Utah?

Given Obama's overall 7 point lead in Fox's poll, their result for early voters is even more unusual.

All we can say is look at the other national polls and you see a different story.

Mark said...

Many thanks for doing this!

Anonymous said...

Thanks for making sense out of none sense or foxsense! Introducting President Barack Obama and the first family, the beautiful first Lady Michelle and gorgeous first daughters..:)... Dreams Do Come True..:)... Dr. King we are finally at the mountain top and we too can see...HOPE!

Anon Anon said...

I never understood the US system. Al Gore had most of the votes yet seemed to lose. Its much simpler in Ireland! Proportional representation. Person with the most votes wins. I guess a state the size of Texas is geographicaly larger than Irealnd witha population that's only slightly smaller, so it may not work that well with a large population like that America as a whole. Yeah I hope Obama wins, but if he changes the tax laws and makes companies situated in Ireland like Intel and Dell pay their taxes in the US, ireland's screwed!!! Obama is better for America and the world though.

Anonymous said...

Thank you. Better than the big media outlets!! Well done!

Anonymous said...

Thank you for your hard work. It helps us to figure these date out.
Bob

Jacob said...

nice post

Electric Bikes said...

Atleast you guys didnt get a hung parliament like the UK just did.

Will be interesting to see how long this coalition government lasts.

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