Alright, we're going to try to make it easy for both you and us, and put all our latest "early voting" data in one place--here--and then keep it as up to date as possible. NOTE: We've updated all this information in a later post HERE through polls released on Nov. 2.Note 1: For our purposes, "early voting" is any process--absentee ballot, mail voting, in-person unrestricted early voting--whereby a voter may cast his/her ballot before election day. In 2004, roughly 20% of voters nationwide voted early. Experts predict an even higher percentage this year--as much as 25-33%.
Note 2: according to George Mason University Prof. McDonald's excellent blog on the topic, in 2004 a majority of early voters were Republicans. This year, the trend is going the other way, especially in battleground states.
Georgia Early Voting
Obama 52% (+6)
McCain 46%
GEORGIA EARLY VOTING DATA (thru 10/29/08)
Early votes: 1,572,293
Percent white: 60.6%
Percent black: 35.1% (Blacks make up 29% of Ga. registered voters)
Percent women: 56.3%
Percent men: 40.5%
Florida Early Voting
Roper (Oct. 22-26) (43.5%)
Obama 45%
McCain 38%
Quinnipiac (Oct. 22-26) (?% of sample)
Obama 58% (+24)
McCain 34%
LA Times/Bloomberg (Oct. 25-27) (21% of sample)
Obama 45%
McCain 49% (+4)
(as of 10/16) (13% of SUSA sample)
Obama 45
McCain 53% (+8)
Quinnipiac (10/16-10/21) (?% of sample)
Obama 48% (+4)
McCain 44%
St. Petersburg Times poll: no data, but text describing findings (poll taken Oct. 20-22) says "McCain and Obama were tied among people who already had voted."
FLORIDA EARLY VOTING DATA (thru 10/29/08)
Early votes: 2,872,459 (includes absentee votes)
Percent Democrat: 46.0% (Note: the data is trending more Democratic with each update)
Percent Republican: 38.2%
2008 early vote as % of 2004 total vote: 37.6%
Illinois Early Voting
Big 10 Battleground (10/19-10/22) (2.1% of sample)
Obama 83% (+67)
McCain 17%
Indiana Early Voting
Big 10 Battleground (10/19-10/22) (1.9% of sample)
Obama 100% (+100)
McCain 0%
Iowa Early Voting
Maine Early Voting
Michigan Early Voting
Big 10 Battleground (10/19-10/22) (1% of sample)
Obama 60% (+20)
McCain 40%
Minnesota Early Voting
Big 10 Battleground (10/19-10/22) (.6% of sample)
Obama 33%
McCain 66% (+33)
New Hampshire Early Voting
New Mexico Early Voting
Obama 60% (+23)
McCain 37%
North Carolina Early Voting
Public Policy Polling (as of 10/26) (33% of survey)
Obama 63% (+27)
McCain 36%
(as of 10/20) (14% of SUSA sample)
Obama 59% (+23)
McCain 36%
(as of 10/20) (4% of CIVITAS sample (volunteered))
Obama 64% (+32)
McCain 32%
NORTH CAROLINA EARLY VOTING DATA (thru 10/29/08)
Early votes: 1,847,860
Percent white: 69.0%
Percent black: 27.1% (Note: blacks are 21% of NC registered voters)
Percent Democrat: 53.3%
Percent Republican: 29.2
Percent Women: 56.4%
Percent Men: 42.7%
2008 early vote as % of 2004 total vote: 52%
2008 early vote as % of all registered voters: 30%
Note: the data, while still quite favorable to Obama, is trending the other way. On Oct. 23, blacks made up 28.7% of the early vote; now they make up 27.1% of the early vote. The percentage of Democrats has similarly declined. However, with as much as 40-50% of all voters having voted, African-Americans still make up a disproportionate number of voters, good news for Obama.
Ohio Early Voting
SUSA (as of 10/13) (12% of sample)
Obama 57% (+18)
McCain 39%
Quinnipiac (10/16-10/21) (?% of sample)
Obama 71% (+51)
McCain 20%
Big 10 Battleground (10/19-10/22) (2.7% of sample)
Obama 66% (+33)
McCain 33%
Oregon Early Voting
SUSA (10/25) (50% of sample)
Obama 62% (+28)
McCain 34%
(In the hard fought Senate race, Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley leads incumbent Republican Gordon Smith in the early voting by 51%-41%)
Pennsylvania Early Voting
Roper (Oct. 22-26) (12% of sample)
Obama 65 (+43)
McCain 22
Texas Early Voting
El Paso Times (10/24) (100% of sample) [Note: this is a poll only of El Paso voters, taken as they left early voting sites.]
Obama 69% (+46)
McCain 23%
Virginia Early Voting
Roper (Oct. 22-26) (12.5% of sample)
Obama 67% (+44)
McCain 23%
SUSA (10/26) (9% of sample)
Obama 67%
McCain 30%
Wisconsin Early Voting
SUSA (as of 10/19) (11% of sample)
Obama 52% (+15)
McCain 37%
Big 10 Battleground (10/19-10/22) (1.3% of sample)
Obama 63% (+26)
McCain 37%
Wyoming Early Voting
(as of 10/20) (14% of SUSA sample)
Obama 41%
McCain 55% (+14)
6 comments:
Kind of scary about Florida, isn't it? Wonder who is voting early, age wise, there. N.
Florida will turn around. As we surmised, the voters picked up in the SUSA survey had voted absentee. Florida opened its in-person early voting stations yesterday and every indication is that Democrats far outnumbered Republicans. The next SUSA poll of Florida should be more informative.
FYI
Broward and Miami-Dade counties publish daily stats of early voters. The state of Florida, on the other hand, does not appear to be make anything available. Anyone find a honest source of data?
NC State Bd of Elections publishes a daily summary. Definite tilt Democratic. While there are McCain posters out, absence of Obama; people are quietly voting Democratic.
So why don't you have South Carolina's early registration? As of Friday, when we voted, it was 100,000 more that had voted this year than four years ago. Where we voted, locally, had 10,000 more than the 16,000 last time, up to 26,000. Many of us think South Carolina might go democratic, particularly if Obama came here -- which, admittedly, looks dubious.
We'd love to include SC--give us a data source. So far, we have not found anything like the useful data that NC, GA, FL, and LA publish, nor have we found a reliable secondary source.
I'm still betting Georgia and SC will go Democratic. Wish you had more information on them.
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