Monday, October 20, 2008

Comprehensive Guide To Early Voting Trends, Exit Polls And Demographic Data

Alright, we're going to try to make it easy for both you and us, and put all our latest "early voting" data in one place--here--and then keep it as up to date as possible. NOTE: We've updated all this information in a later post HERE through polls released on Nov. 2.



Note 1: For our purposes, "early voting" is any process--absentee ballot, mail voting, in-person unrestricted early voting--whereby a voter may cast his/her ballot before election day. In 2004, roughly 20% of voters nationwide voted early. Experts predict an even higher percentage this year--as much as 25-33%.


Note 2: according to George Mason University Prof. McDonald's excellent blog on the topic, in 2004 a majority of early voters were Republicans. This year, the trend is going the other way, especially in battleground states.


National Early Voting
Fox News (10/28-10/29) (22% of sample)
Obama 52%
McCain 43%
Hotline/Diageo (10/27-10/29) (19% of sample)
Obama 55% (+19)
McCain 36%
Economist (Oct. 25-27) (23% of sample)
Obama 59%
McCain 41%
ABC/Wash. Post (Oct. 26-29) (11% of sample)
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
Harris (Oct. 20-27) (12% of sample)
Obama 51% (+9)
McCain 42%
Gallup (Oct. 25-28) (18% of sample)
Obama 53% (+10)
McCain 43%
Diageo/Hotline (Oct. 25-28) (17% of sample reports having already voted; no breakdown of how they voted.)
Gallup (Oct. 19-21) (9% of sample)
Percentages not available. Gallup says "while equal percentages of Obama and McCain voters have voted early, there are more of the former than of the latter, meaning that early voting generally reflects the same Obama lead evident in the overall sample." In other words, Obama leads in the early voting, but by no greater margin than he leads in the polls in general.
Also, here's a memo from the Obama campaign with it's own data breakdown for some key states, comparing 2008 early voting turnout by party with the numbers from 2004.
Pew (Oct. 23-26) A national Pew survey of roughly 1500 voters found that 15% had already voted, but did not provide a breakdown of who they voted for.
Colorado Early Voting
Marist (Oct. 27-28) (44% of sample)
Obama 59% (+18)
McCain 41%
Roper (Oct. 22-26) (59% of sample)
Obama 57 (+23)
McCain 34



Georgia Early Voting
(as of 10/12) (18% of SUSA sample)
Obama 52% (+6)
McCain 46%


GEORGIA EARLY VOTING DATA (thru 10/29/08)
Early votes: 1,572,293
Percent white: 60.6%
Percent black: 35.1% (Blacks make up 29% of Ga. registered voters)
Percent women: 56.3%
Percent men: 40.5%
2008 early vote as % of 2004 total vote: 47.6%







Florida Early Voting

Roper (Oct. 22-26) (43.5%)

Obama 45%

McCain 38%

Quinnipiac (Oct. 22-26) (?% of sample)

Obama 58% (+24)

McCain 34%

LA Times/Bloomberg (Oct. 25-27) (21% of sample)

Obama 45%

McCain 49% (+4)

(as of 10/16) (13% of SUSA sample)
Obama 45
McCain 53% (+8)

Quinnipiac (10/16-10/21) (?% of sample)

Obama 48% (+4)

McCain 44%

St. Petersburg Times poll: no data, but text describing findings (poll taken Oct. 20-22) says "McCain and Obama were tied among people who already had voted."


FLORIDA EARLY VOTING DATA (thru 10/29/08)
Early votes: 2,872,459 (includes absentee votes)
Percent Democrat: 46.0% (Note: the data is trending more Democratic with each update)
Percent Republican: 38.2%

2008 early vote as % of 2004 total vote: 37.6%

Illinois Early Voting

Big 10 Battleground (10/19-10/22) (2.1% of sample)

Obama 83% (+67)

McCain 17%

Indiana Early Voting

Big 10 Battleground (10/19-10/22) (1.9% of sample)

Obama 100% (+100)

McCain 0%





Iowa Early Voting
SUSA(as of 10/9) (14% of sample)
Obama 65% (+34)
McCain 31%
Big 10 Battleground (10/19-10/22) (3.4% of sample)
Obama 70% (+40)
McCain 30%
Louisiana Early Voting
Demographic Data (thru 10/28):
Total casting early votes: 266,880
Democrats: 58.5%
Republicans: 28.45%
Black: 36.3% (Note: African-Americans make up 30.4% of La. registered voters)
White: 60.8%
Men: 43.5%
Women: 56.5%
Early voters as % of 2004 election: 13.6%



Maine Early Voting
(as of 10/21) (14% of SUSA sample)
Obama 61% (+27)
McCain 34%

Michigan Early Voting

Big 10 Battleground (10/19-10/22) (1% of sample)

Obama 60% (+20)

McCain 40%

Minnesota Early Voting

Big 10 Battleground (10/19-10/22) (.6% of sample)

Obama 33%

McCain 66% (+33)

Nevada Early Voting
Roper (Oct. 22-26) (51% of sample)
Obama 56 (+23)
McCain 33


New Hampshire Early Voting
Roper (Oct. 22-26) (10%)
Obama 52 (+18)
McCain 34


New Mexico Early Voting
(as of 10/13) (10% of SUSA sample)
Obama 60% (+23)
McCain 37%







North Carolina Early Voting
Roper (10/22-10/26) (39% of survey)
Obama 59% (+26)
McCain 33%

Public Policy Polling (as of 10/26) (33% of survey)

Obama 63% (+27)

McCain 36%

(as of 10/20) (14% of SUSA sample)
Obama 59% (+23)
McCain 36%


(as of 10/20) (4% of CIVITAS sample (volunteered))
Obama 64% (+32)
McCain 32%

NORTH CAROLINA EARLY VOTING DATA (thru 10/29/08)
Early votes: 1,847,860
Percent white: 69.0%
Percent black: 27.1% (Note: blacks are 21% of NC registered voters)
Percent Democrat: 53.3%
Percent Republican: 29.2
Percent Women: 56.4%
Percent Men: 42.7%

2008 early vote as % of 2004 total vote: 52%

2008 early vote as % of all registered voters: 30%

Note: the data, while still quite favorable to Obama, is trending the other way. On Oct. 23, blacks made up 28.7% of the early vote; now they make up 27.1% of the early vote. The percentage of Democrats has similarly declined. However, with as much as 40-50% of all voters having voted, African-Americans still make up a disproportionate number of voters, good news for Obama.



Ohio Early Voting
Roper (10/22-26) (29% of sample)
Obama 56% (+28)
McCain 28%
Quinnipiac (10/22-26) (? of sample)
Obama 57% (+16)
McCain 41%
SUSA (as of 10/27) (22% of sample)
Obama 56% (+17)
McCain 39%
LA Times/Bloomberg (10/25-10/27) (21% of sample)
Obama 57% (+22)
McCain 35%

SUSA (as of 10/13) (12% of sample)
Obama 57% (+18)
McCain 39%

Quinnipiac (10/16-10/21) (?% of sample)

Obama 71% (+51)

McCain 20%

Big 10 Battleground (10/19-10/22) (2.7% of sample)

Obama 66% (+33)

McCain 33%

Oregon Early Voting

SUSA (10/25) (50% of sample)

Obama 62% (+28)

McCain 34%

(In the hard fought Senate race, Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley leads incumbent Republican Gordon Smith in the early voting by 51%-41%)

Pennsylvania Early Voting

Roper (Oct. 22-26) (12% of sample)

Obama 65 (+43)

McCain 22

Texas Early Voting

El Paso Times (10/24) (100% of sample) [Note: this is a poll only of El Paso voters, taken as they left early voting sites.]

Obama 69% (+46)

McCain 23%

Virginia Early Voting

Roper (Oct. 22-26) (12.5% of sample)

Obama 67% (+44)

McCain 23%

SUSA (10/26) (9% of sample)

Obama 67%

McCain 30%

Washington Early Voting
SUSA (10/28)(54% of sample)
Obama 59% (+22)
McCain 37%


Wisconsin Early Voting

SUSA (as of 10/19) (11% of sample)
Obama 52% (+15)
McCain 37%

Big 10 Battleground (10/19-10/22) (1.3% of sample)

Obama 63% (+26)

McCain 37%







Wyoming Early Voting

(as of 10/20) (14% of SUSA sample)
Obama 41%
McCain 55% (+14)






7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Kind of scary about Florida, isn't it? Wonder who is voting early, age wise, there. N.

X Curmudgeon said...

Florida will turn around. As we surmised, the voters picked up in the SUSA survey had voted absentee. Florida opened its in-person early voting stations yesterday and every indication is that Democrats far outnumbered Republicans. The next SUSA poll of Florida should be more informative.

Anonymous said...

FYI

Broward and Miami-Dade counties publish daily stats of early voters. The state of Florida, on the other hand, does not appear to be make anything available. Anyone find a honest source of data?

NC State Bd of Elections publishes a daily summary. Definite tilt Democratic. While there are McCain posters out, absence of Obama; people are quietly voting Democratic.

Anonymous said...

So why don't you have South Carolina's early registration? As of Friday, when we voted, it was 100,000 more that had voted this year than four years ago. Where we voted, locally, had 10,000 more than the 16,000 last time, up to 26,000. Many of us think South Carolina might go democratic, particularly if Obama came here -- which, admittedly, looks dubious.

X Curmudgeon said...

We'd love to include SC--give us a data source. So far, we have not found anything like the useful data that NC, GA, FL, and LA publish, nor have we found a reliable secondary source.

political gal said...

I'm still betting Georgia and SC will go Democratic. Wish you had more information on them.

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