Right Said Fred?

We didn't watch the silly Des Moines Register Republican debate yesterday afternoon (nor the Democratic one today)--really, how many "debates" do we need? And if we're going to have them, why not when someone will watch, and why not a format that makes sense?

Anyway, it seems all the pundits who DID watch say Fred Thompson "won." (That may be more a reflection on how badly he'd done before--he exceeded everyone's by now low expectations, kind of like "W" in his last debate with Kerry.)

So, with his new exclusive focus on Iowa and his big win in a terrible debate (format-wise) that practically no one watched, will Fred make a surge and peak at just the right time?

No. Team Fred (which must be secretly being advised by all-time loser Bob Shrum) says their strategy is to come in third in Iowa. Thompson supporter Mary Matalin says the Fredster just needs a "solid third" and adviser Rich Galen says "we don't even have to come in second." (For more, see Byron York in National Review.)

Wow, now that's shooting for the stars--third place in Iowa. Talk about setting the bar low.

Let's see. Right now, Fred is polling last--in SIXTH place--in New Hampshire. What if he loses to Duncan Hunter there? And he's plummeted in the most recent ARG national poll to a mere 6%.

Then after New Hampshire there's Michigan and Nevada, where Fred does no better than fourth in the polls. Even in the first Southern primary--SC--he's polling third. It's hard to see how a third place finish in Iowa will propel Thompson anywhere special.

Now, if he somehow managed to pull off SECOND in Iowa, well, then--we might start giving the guy a chance.

We will say this. We remember a cold December night in 2003, at a Kerry fundraiser, where all of us were down in the dumps, basically saying, "this is it, too bad." Things do change--less than two months later, Kerry trumped Dean in Iowa and the rest was history (thanks to Shrum). So we'll give Fred 20-1.