How Rudy Giuliani Blew The Race

Reading through today's commentary on the presidential race, we were struck by two statistics that neatly illustrate how Rudy Giuliani and his campaign "brain"trust have blown the race through pure incompetence.

The first is from the Project For Excellence In Journalism's index of media exposure for the major candidates during the past week, in which Giuliani got far less free media exposure than McCain, Romney or Huckabee, or even John Edwards, copping just about 5% of the stories.

It's been like that for Giuliani for several weeks now--as if he put a self-imposed media blackout on his campaign. For someone running out of money, that's not a smart thing to do.

The second is from a detailed Pew poll (highlighted in a blog post from Jay Cost at Real Clear Politics showing that Giuliani has a 67% net favorable rating among supporters of John McCain. Just so you know, that's extremely high and basically indicates that McCain voters are also favorably disposed to Giuliani.

If McCain wins it all, it will because Giuliani refused to confront him in the early contests, thereby letting McCain drain away Rudy's base of support. At this point, Rudy must attack McCain in Florida and hit him hard if he wants any chance of succeeding. He can't just be a "me too" to McCain--he'll have to show the voting constituency that they share that Rudy is the better choice.

Rudy wouldn't be in this predicament, however, if he hadn't shied from the fight. He badly needs for either Huckabee (or Thompson, however unlikely that is) to beat McCain in SC. At the same time, Thompson is dragging Huckabee down--they, too, share a lot of the same base--and opening the way for McCain, although it will be a close one.

One last comment, this one on Thompson: his people are saying the Fredster needs a "strong" showing in SC, which they explain as second place. Second place? That's so lame. What would that prove? Only that Fred can't win anywhere, except maybe Tennessee. He needs to win in SC. He should have recognized that all along and built a strategy around it, but instead he's just bumbled around the country.

Right Said Fred?

We didn't watch the silly Des Moines Register Republican debate yesterday afternoon (nor the Democratic one today)--really, how many "debates" do we need? And if we're going to have them, why not when someone will watch, and why not a format that makes sense?

Anyway, it seems all the pundits who DID watch say Fred Thompson "won." (That may be more a reflection on how badly he'd done before--he exceeded everyone's by now low expectations, kind of like "W" in his last debate with Kerry.)

So, with his new exclusive focus on Iowa and his big win in a terrible debate (format-wise) that practically no one watched, will Fred make a surge and peak at just the right time?

No. Team Fred (which must be secretly being advised by all-time loser Bob Shrum) says their strategy is to come in third in Iowa. Thompson supporter Mary Matalin says the Fredster just needs a "solid third" and adviser Rich Galen says "we don't even have to come in second." (For more, see Byron York in National Review.)

Wow, now that's shooting for the stars--third place in Iowa. Talk about setting the bar low.

Let's see. Right now, Fred is polling last--in SIXTH place--in New Hampshire. What if he loses to Duncan Hunter there? And he's plummeted in the most recent ARG national poll to a mere 6%.

Then after New Hampshire there's Michigan and Nevada, where Fred does no better than fourth in the polls. Even in the first Southern primary--SC--he's polling third. It's hard to see how a third place finish in Iowa will propel Thompson anywhere special.

Now, if he somehow managed to pull off SECOND in Iowa, well, then--we might start giving the guy a chance.

We will say this. We remember a cold December night in 2003, at a Kerry fundraiser, where all of us were down in the dumps, basically saying, "this is it, too bad." Things do change--less than two months later, Kerry trumped Dean in Iowa and the rest was history (thanks to Shrum). So we'll give Fred 20-1.

Fred Thompson--Sign of Life?

Earlier today, we posted about Fred Thompson's seeming lack of strategy (kind of like the Redskins in the fourth quarter).

Two follow-ups: (1) we noted that Uncle Freddie was polling in second in Nevada, but that the most recent poll there was a month old. Now Zogby is out with a new poll in Nevada, in which Thompson has slipped to a distant third. (Meanwhile, Ron Paul has jumped to 7%.) More evidence that Thompson is going nowhere.

(2) Thompson is reputably rumored to be picking up the endorsement of the National Right To Life Committee tomorrow. The NRLC is probably the most prominent anti-abortion group in the country, so maybe that will breathe some life into the Thompson campaign.

Fred Thompson's Disappointing Fundraising Numbers: Is He Toast Already?

The Politico is reporting that Fred Thompson's June fundraising total of just $3 million is raising speculation that his nascent campaign is already in trouble.

In Fred's Funds Raise Fear of Flop, Politico correspondent Mike Allen reports:

"[M]any Republicans have turned queasy as Thompson has ousted part of his original brain trust and repeatedly delayed his official announcement, which is now planned for shortly after Labor Day, in the first two weeks of September.

Some are already saying a prospective Thompson run is a flop. “I just don’t see it anymore,” said a key Republican who had been extremely enthusiastic about a Thompson candidacy.

"That number [his $3 million in fundraising] is really underwhelming. There were indications it could be double that. They've been saying that people were waiting for Fred, and the money was going to pour in. He looks like he's already losing momentum."

My, my. Fred was to be the GOP's salvation, and now he's already yesterday's news. Will the Republicans really nominate Rudy Giuliani?

Thompson Entry Temporarily Riles GOP Side of Race

Actor/Senator Fred Thompson's signal that he will run for the GOP presidential nomination was surely not unexpected, but it does cement one more piece of the 2008 electoral puzzle.

We previously predicted that both Thompson and, later this year, Newt Gingrich, will run on the Republican side, while we continue to believe that Thompson's Tennessee colleague Al Gore will not run on the Democratic side.

Thompson will get a temporary boost in the polls from making it clear he really intends to run. Right now, he polls at about 10 percent nationally amongst likely Republican primary voters and caucus goers, and at about 7-9 percent in Iowa and New Hampshire, and the low teens in South Carolina and Florida. We think he'll go as high as 15 percent nationally in some polls, and he may break out in South Carolina and/or Florida as a top two candidate.

But then, folks will get to know more about him and he'll fade back into the high single digits. Thompson's biggest problem is laziness. Not lazy like the Curmudgeon, who likes to play a round of golf every now and then, and thinks of blogging as "work", but lazy compared to the other candidates who are running.

Thompson has hinted that he'll run a more national campaign, utilizing the internet, rather than engaging in the exhausting process of "retail" politics in places like Iowa and New Hampshire. He also shows some disdain for flying about doing fundraisers, which just happens to be a great way to motivate your supporters. In other words, Thompson wants to sit around HQ and direct his campaign, rather than hang out in the field. We doubt that's a recipe for success, but who knows--with the primary schedule so front-loaded, maybe it will work.

Republicans will also see that Thompson isn't Ronald Reagan (indeed, Ronald Reagan wasn't Ronald Reagan, just like JFK wasn't JFK--they get bigger in death) and he really isn't all that different from the other candidates. Nor is he likely to break out in national head-to-head polls as someone who can beat the leading Democrats.

Right now, the Republicans remind us of where the Dems were in 2003--facing a mushy field of uninspiring candidates, with the mainstream trying to pick someone who could win, while the not insignificant fringe looks for someone given to the cause.

Once Gingrich joins the race this fall, it will be even more muddled, to the point that we wonder if this will be the first year since 1952 when Republicans show up at their national convention without a nominee locked into place. That would certainly be exciting--indeed, in '52 Ike made a deal with California Governor Earl Warren to get his delegates, which put Ike over the top and put Warren in as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. Practically anything can happen at a deadlocked convention. (It could happen on the Dem side, too, but we'd lay greater odds, at least for now, on the GOP side.)