Big Step Forward For Bloomberg Indie Run

Next week, as Iowa voters go to the caucus, former Oklahoma Senator David Boren--now President of the University of Oklahoma--will host an important meeting of leading Democrats and Republicans interested in forming a bipartisan independent bid for the Presidency.

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg will be there, along with such center of the road political luminaries as Sam Nunn, Chuck Robb, Chuck Hegel, John Danforth and Christine Todd Whitman.

For much more detail, see David Broder's story in today's Washington Post--"Bipartisan Group Eyes Independent Bid." This could be an extremely important meeting, potentially sealing the launch of a major indie run by Bloomberg, which we have predicted for some time will come to pass. As Broder puts it, the list of major political heavyweights from both parties who have agreed to attend the meeting "suggests that the group could muster the financial and political firepower to make the threat of such a candidacy real."

A Bloomberg run could really change the political calculus come November. While we'd have to rate the chances of Bloomberg winning the Presidency as a long shot, he has potentially a better opportunity to win in 2008 than any independent candidate since WWII.

What factors are more likely to make Mayor Mike run, and to give him a greater chance of winning?

1. If the Democrats nominate either Hillary Clinton or John Edwards, the likelihood of a Bloomberg run goes up. Hillary is viewed as a divisive figure with high negatives, while Edwards' "two nations" populist appeal is hardly a theme for unity. Both candidates would be viewed with deep suspicion by independents and opposite party moderates. In contrast, Barack Obama projects bipartisan themes with appeal to independents--his nomination reduces the likelihood of a Bloomberg run.

2. If the Republicans nominate Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, or Rudy Giuliani, Bloomberg is also more likely to run. If the GOP goes with McCain, then Bloomberg may stand down, especially if it's McCain versus Obama.

3. If it's Giuliani or Romney versus Hillary, we think a Bloomberg run is certain--and deserved. Such a race would be extraordinarily bitter and divisive, a big turn-off to most independents, and would leave an opening for Bloomberg large enough to win.

Still, Bloomberg would have to think long and hard about it. Absent winning, his candidacy would likely change the complexion of the race, probably helping the Democrat, but not necessarily so. Furthermore, if he were to get enough electoral votes to prevent either major party candidate from obtaining a majority, he'd throw the race into the House of Representatives, where Democrats currently hold sway--and likely will after this coming election.

Bloomberg may still see value in running, even if he can't win. If he runs on a theme of unity and bipartisanship, he may force both major party candidates to similarly embrace such themes and run more toward the center, which would not be such a bad thing at all. One caveat for Mr. Bloomberg: if he's paying any attention to the current race, he knows the process has the effect of making everyone look small and flawed. Surely the billionaire has some skeletons in his own closet that he might just as soon keep in the dark.

Our bet: Bloomberg will run. BUT if Obama is the Democratic nominee, then we put the odds at less than 50-50.