Could Dems Pick Up Lott's Mississippi Senate Seat?

Some interesting political maneuvering going on in Mississippi.

Senate Minority Leader Trent Lott has said he'll resign his seat before the end of this year, apparently so he can wait only one year, instead of two as required by a new law taking effect Jan. 1, to begin a lucrative lobbying career.

Yet, the timing of Lott's resignation may have a big impact on who his successor is. Under Mississippi law, if a Senate seat becomes vacant in a year of state or congressional elections, the Governor appoints a temporary successor until the next general election. So, if Lott were to resign Jan. 1, the temporary appointee would be in office until the November '08 general election, at which the state's Republicans are likely to turn out for the presidential contest.

But, if the vacancy occurs in an off-election year, the special election to fill the vacant seat must occur 90 days after the vacancy. If Lott resigns on December 31--to take advantage of the shorter lobbying hiatus--a question arises as to whether the special election to fill his seat must be 90 days later, i.e., at the end of March.

The answer is not crystal clear. There were statewide elections in Mississippi this year, but they are over. Our sources tell us that Mississippi's Attorney General, Jim Hood--a Democrat--is prepared to issue an opinion stating if Lott resigns in 2007, the special election must be 90 days later. Mississippi Democrats think that would help their candidate. Ultimately, the issue might have to be decided in the state's Supreme Court, however.

That said, the only really viable Democratic candidate for Lott's seat would be former state Attorney General Mike Moore, who made a national name for himself going after tobacco companies in the 1990's. (That's him, pictured above.)

Now it gets really interesting--stay with us. Yesterday we discussed the legal troubles of Mississippi trial lawyer extraordinaire Dickie Scruggs. Scruggs is the brother-in-law of Trent Lott (their wives are sisters). Scruggs was also the lawyer who prosecuted Mike Moore's tobacco case in Mississippi. And, Scruggs has been involved with the current AG--Hood--in Katrina litigation. There have been a number of ethical charges made against Scruggs in connection with both--apart from the bribery indictment that may ultimately fell Scruggs.

So Scruggs' legal problems may cast a shadow on any Mike Moore campaign, or on Hood's efforts to get an early special election.

One other thing about Moore's potential candidacy: quite a few of the state AG's who vigorously pursued tobacco litigation have sought to use the attendant publicity to propel them to higher office, with a notable LACK of success. In Minnesota, AG Skip Humphrey ran for governor and lost. His chief outside trial lawyer, Mike Ciresi, ran for Senate in Minnesota and lost. He's running again, and we hope he loses in the primary to Al Franken.

In Massachusetts, AG Scott Harshbarger ran for governor and lost. And in Washington state, former AG Christine Gregoire ran in an overwhelmingly blue state during an election year in which Democrats trounced Republicans, yet she won by the tiniest of margins in a cliffhanger recount.

We have a theory on why these tobacco AG's and their allies have fared so poorly: while core Democrats love them, smokers--that's about 25% of the population--don't. Smokers don't make a lot of noise as a political group; they tend to be more blue collar than the general population and probably turn out to vote in somewhat lower numbers, but they do vote. We think most smokers viewed these AG's as political opportunists, who succeeded only in raising the cost of cigarettes without in any way benefitting or helping the smokers who were the supposed object of their crusade.

States have not spent the hundreds of billions of dollars they earned in the global tobacco settlements to help smokers quit, or compensate them for disease. Instead, they've generally put the money into their general funds, to build roads, sewers, etc.

Call smokers the silent smoking minority, but we think they have quietly influenced--in a negative way--the political aspirations of those tobacco AG's. We wonder whether Moore, who does remain a popular political figure in Mississippi, will suffer a similar fate if he decides to run.