Peaking Too Soon?

It's official: Obama and Huckabee are Iowa leaders according to the media consensus. And their opponents appear to concede the point: Hillary is attacking Obama broadly now, while Romney, in desperation, prepares to give a major speech on his faith.

The problem is that once the media pack come to agreement like this, it's time to reconsider. Remember when Howard Dean had Iowa locked up, only to lose to Kerry, who had been written off?

Or McCain nailing Bush in New Hampshire, only to have Bush mug him in South Carolina. And so on.

The question of the day: have Huckabee and Obama peaked too soon? Or maybe we should first ask if they have peaked yet.

Let's start with whether they've peaked. Huckabee has surged from the single digits to the upper 20's percentage-wise in Iowa. We doubt any Republican in this crowed field can do better than 35 percent, and that will be a stretch. Huckabee's probably about near his peak in Iowa, although he's still rising in the rest of the country.

Obama probably hasn't peaked yet in the smaller Democratic field. Most Democrats actually like Obama, Hillary, Edwards and the rest of the field. They're more focused on who can win and govern effectively, and they're torn. It will be a tough general election, and Hillary is battle-tested. But she is polarizing and may not play as well to independents. Many Dems are giving Obama a fresh look from the standpoint of "change" and "something new." We think Obama can climb a bit higher in Iowa, but he will have to be tough--Hillary ain't going to take this lying down.

Now, have they peaked too early?

The guy who peaked too soon is Romney. He was looking good as little as two weeks ago, but now he's in trouble. Huckabee looks pretty solid in Iowa: he has the highest percentage in polls who say they've completely made up their minds, and he has the highest percentage of supporters who have previously attended a caucus. If the Huckster can maintain his sense of humor and charm for four more weeks without a gaffe--not that easy, mind you--he'll win.

The other thing Huckabee has going for him in a five-way contest is the old issue of "who do I want to play in the play-offs?" Giuliani, it appears, would rather use Huckabee to eliminate Romney, then deal with the Arkansan. McCain also stands to benefit in New Hampshire if Huckabee wins Iowa, having a better chance to steal votes from an imploding Romney.

What of Obama? No question, this is going to be a bare-knuckle fight. Clinton doesn't have to win Iowa, but she can't afford to come in third or lose by a wide margin. Furthermore, there's the expectations game: if the media says Obama is going to win, and he doesn't, he's in trouble. Indeed, if Hillary can come back in the next month and, through organizational strength and ad money, win Iowa, she should easily be propelled to the nomination.

Our fearless forecast: Huckabee wins Iowa by 5-10 percentage points over Romney, who barely fends off Giuliani. Obama edges out Hillary, but by less than the pundits had forecast, resulting in a tactical victory for Clinton. And yes, we reserve the right to change our forecast, as early as tomorrow!

The good news for Huckabee--his supporters seem more firmly entrenched for him, and they are more experienced caucus-goers, so he has a good chance of retaining his support.