Deadlocked GOP Convention?

Regular readers of the Curmudgeon will recall that many months ago we speculated on the possibility of Republicans going into their national convention with no candidate having the nomination locked up.

Of course, for us political types, that would indeed be juicy. (The 1880 GOP Convention at right--they're about as diverse today as then.)

A fellow pundit has now done us the favor of sketching out some math showing how it could happen. See "Convention Wisdom: A Minneapolis floor fight is not so far-fetched." David Fredoso, of the National Review, proceeds from the assumption that Rudy G. is still the man to beat, and so gives Giuliani the benefit of the doubt in counting up delegates. Still, he notes that there are many delegates that the G-man clearly won't get, and that the rules for allocating delegates even in some states Giuliani is likely to carry will leave him short.

The math is interesting. It probably doesn't do justice to Huckabee, but it's still hard to tell whether the Huckster is a flash in the pan (remember Howard Dean?) or the real deal.

Even the possibility of a deadlocked convention could have an interesting effect on the GOP race. Consider this: even marginal candidates after the first few races may stay in, rather than drop out, figuring that in the event of a deadlock, anything could happen. It also gives a candidate some leverage in negotiations.

Did you ever wonder how Earl Warren came to be Eisenhower's nominee for Chief Justice of the Supreme Court? It wasn't because Ike was a big fan of Warren. Rather, Warren, a former governor of California, also ran for the GOP presidential nomination in 1952 and won just enough delegates that he could put Ike over the top, ahead of Taft. (Or vice versa.) So a deal was done--Eisenhower became President and Earl Warren went on the Supreme Court.

So, even if McCain and Thompson don't do particularly well in the primaries, they can pick up some delegates here and there--their home states of Arizona and Tennessee, for example--and maybe be a kingmaker at the convention. Or a compromise nominee.

Of course, you don't even have to have been a candidate in the primaries to be picked in a deadlocked convention, so someone like Newt Gingrich could end up the nominee after all.

All of which is why it would be so much FUN!