As usual in the middle of a week less than one month from the first nominating contest, things are busy out there on the campaign trail.
Here's some of the more interesting items:
Fred Thompson's Last Move?
Fred Thompson has practically closed up shop in New Hampshire (where he stands at a whopping 1% in one recent poll) and announced he's going to spend the rest of the campaign in Iowa. In effect, the Fredster--who's chip pile in Word Series of Poker Politics has been dwindling fast--is going "all in" for Iowa.
The rationale for this move is that Thompson is the second choice of many Huckabee supporters in Iowa, so if Huckabee stumbles--or Romney manages to destroy him (see below) then Thompson will be the beneficiary.
Don't hold your breath. We long ago derided Thompson's campaign for having no strategy, and now it's getting a little late. In Iowa polls right now, the tall Tennessean is basically tied with Giuliani in third place, well behind both Huckabee and Romney. He might be able to squeeze out a third place finish, but we wouldn't be surprised if his supporters instead moved over to Huckabee in the end. Thompson should have listened to us: several weeks ago, we said he should move his entire operation to SC and stake the campaign there.
By putting all his chips on Iowa, it looks like Fred is positioning himself to be the first man out of the race (although he should do no more than "suspend" his campaign--just in case the GOP ends up deadlocked and looks for a "compromise" candidate).
Romney Goes After Huckabee With Negatory TV
Governor Huckabee has it right: in a "desperate" move, the Romney campaign has now launched a full-scale attack ad on the Huckster, going after his position on immigration.
Not only is the move desperate, it won't work. Voters in Iowa already know about Huckabee's position on immigration and they're fine with it--he's moved up in the polls, not down.
Romney is also attacking Huckabee on the tax front. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black--Romney, as Governor of Taxachusetts, also had quite a record of raising taxes. Here's a nice little hatchet job on Romney from the New Hampshire Union Leader--which is supporting McCain--written by former Republican acting governor of Massachusetts, Jane Swift. Not so subtly titled "If Republicans Nominate Flip-Flop Romney, They'll Lose," this Swift-boat piece talks about the $700 million per year in increased corporate taxes and fees that Romney oversaw as governator.
[The online comments to Swift's op-ed are as interesting as the commentary itself--overwhelmingly Romney oriented, they look like something organized by the Mittster's campaign. Something worth an enterprising blogger looking into.]
In any event, genteel Iowans are likely to react negatively to Romney's negativity, and those evangelicals will simply dig in their heels for Huckabee.
Speaking of Huckabee, you can already catch online the New York Times Magazine's forthcoming (this Sunday) lengthy profile of the Huck-man--"The Huckabee Factor." It's an interesting piece, with, of course, the Times looking to damn Huckabee with faint praise and sink him with not-so-charming revelations.
But don't think Huckabee's not a legitimate threat to Democrats in November. True, the Drudge Report yesterday claimed that Democrats were "holding fire" on Huckabee, viewing him as "easy kill" in the general election, but don't be so sure of that. (Indeed, other reports said the Drudge piece actually came from Team Romney, which would be no surprise at all--a lot of signs are pointing to Romney's operation as the slickest and dirtiest of all.) We'd bet the Republicans said the same thing about little known Jimmy Carter in 1976. If you don't think Huckabee's dangerous, just look what he did to Romney is just four weeks (with Romney's mishandling of his rise adding fuel to the fire).
Oprah Helps Obama Bounce In South Carolina
On the Democratic side, Obama continues to rise as Hillary slips. This one will devolve into an intense, two-person race, and it may all hinge on Super Duper Tuesday--February 5. (Although we hope the race will still be contested a week later, on Feb. 12, when Virginians get to vote.)
After appearing with Oprah Winfrey before a huge crowd of 30,000 at Carolina stadium in Columbia this past weekend, Obama has jumped into the lead in a SC poll, leading 28-22.
Look for Mr. Hillary--that's Bill--to make more SC appearances. He's about as popular as Oprah among the state's African-Americans, and while he won't draw a crowd of 30,000, he'll nonetheless get voters' attention in the state.
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