Huckabee, Obama, Continue To Come On Strong

More polls, with more good news for Huckabee and Obama, and bad news for Thompson, Giuliani, Romney and Clinton.

Republicans--More Huckabee!

First, SC, where two new polls have nearly identical numbers, both with Huckabee leading for the first time. Rasmussen has Huckabee at 25%, followed by Romney and Thompson at 18%; Insider Advantage has the Huckster at 23%, followed by Thompson and Giuliani at 17% and Romney at 14%.

It was just a few weeks ago that we marvelled at how Romney had seized the lead in SC--a lead, that had it held up with victories in Iowa and New Hampshire could easily have propelled the Mittster to the nomination. Now Huckabee has the lead, and he'll probably keep it unless he gets derailed by Arkansas parole flap. Thompson is second in both polls, but barely. If he doesn't outright win SC, his campaign is done.

In Iowa, Strategic Vision is the latest poll, and it confirms that Huckabee is on top with four weeks to go. Romney trails close behind, so his big religious speech, combined with fallout to Huckabee from the Arkansas parole controversy, could put him back on top.

In New Hampshire, Romney is maintaining a comfortable lead and Huckabee has moved less than just about anywhere else. We don't see Romney losing the Granite State.

But in Florida, where Giuliani has staked his campaign, Huckabee is coming on strong, rising to second place in the recent Survey USA poll, with 18% to Rudy's 32%. The problem for Giuliani is that if Thompson melts down--we think he could be gone by SC--Huckabee stands to gain further and could do quite well in Florida. We've said all along that Giuliani's strategy is flawed, and we stand by our claim. If Giuliani comes in third, or worse, in the first five contests--Iowa, NH, Michigan, Nevada and SC--as is quite possible, his support in Florida will dwindle too and he could be in big trouble.

One other word on Huckabee. Some pundits are now positing that the Baptist preacher from Arkansas could be, in one's words, the Democrats' "worst nightmare" (that would be from Chris Cilizza in the Washington Post). We're not prepared yet to worry about Huckabee in the general election. Granted, he would do well in the Deep South, where Dems have little chance; and, he'd be eaten alive in the industrial Northeast and on the Left Coast, which remain true blue. How would he do in the battleground states? We think his lack of foreign policy experience, his overt religiosity, his very right-wing social views and some of his whackier proposals, like his crazy "voluntary" flat tax plan (we call it the Alternative Maximum Tax) would do him in.

The Democrats--More Obama

Obama's surge continues unabated, with Hillary's leads in states following Iowa starting to slip. We won't go into all the data--suffice it to say that Hillary has dropped in NH and SC (but not Florida, yet).

The question is what will happen when this becomes a two-candidate race? Will Democrats across the country embrace Obama, or will they be risk-averse and stick with Hillary. Still hard to say. Would it still be possible, after the recent nastiness, to have a Hillary/Obama ticket? Many Democrats would like that one quite a bit.

In a separate post, we will address shortly what many view as the key "difference" between Hillary and Obama--her tendency to polarize versus his claim to be able to bring on an era of new politics.