With still quite awhile to go (more than three weeks--an eternity in this political season), the Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary race is definitely getting tighter.
A couple weeks ago, Hillary Clinton maintained a comfy double digit lead over Barack Obama in all the Pennsylvania polls. That's no longer true. The five most recent polls have Hillary's lead down to less than 6 points, on average:
Insider Advantage: Hillary 45% Obama 42%
Public Policy Polling: Obama 45% Hillary 43%
Rasmussen: Hillary 47% Obama 42%
Insider Advantage: Hillary 53% Obama 41%
Quinnipiac: Hillary 50% Obama 41%
Nonetheless, once burned, twice shy. Polls before Ohio and Texas showed a dramatic narrowing, with Obama leading in Texas, only to have Hillary comfortably take both primaries that day.
Still, it's a dangerous moment for Hillary. She's expected to win Pennsylvania. If she doesn't, it will be a major blow to her campaign, especially if followed by a likely loss in North Carolina a couple weeks ago. [The Curmudgeon's brother and sister, living in Raleigh, NC, are still stunned that their votes will actually matter at such a late date.]
One possible motivation for swing/undecided voters to break toward Obama: to end this impasse and avoid a convention mess.
As we said, however, there's still a long way to go until April 22!
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
1 comment:
Very interesting and informative information on your blog - a great aid in summarizing current events. I'd like to hear what you have to say about Jimmy Carter meeting with Arab Moslem terrorists.
Post a Comment