Finally, the long hiatus in the primary election season is over. Pennsylvania votes tomorrow, with Hillary Clinton highly likely to win comfortably (we expect something like 55%-45% or better for Hillary, despite polls suggesting it is closer).Then come Guam caucuses on May 3 followed by North Carolina and Indiana on May 6, with Indiana probably the only remaining contest with any real suspense in it. (Obama has a huge lead in NC.)
After that, it's a quick run through West Virginia (Hillary will win), Kentucky (Hillary will win), Oregon (Obama will win), Puerto Rico (Hillary), Montana (Obama) and South Dakota (Obama), with it all done by June 3.
And guess what? At that point Obama should have a lead of at least 100 delegates and he should be within less than 100 delegates of clinching the nomination (one pretty persuasive projection we saw put him within 70 delegates by June 3). So by that point the remaining uncommitted superdelegates will be under intense pressure to commit, especially to Obama if it looks like he's inevitable by then.
It's the home stretch of the marathon (or the marathon leg of the triathalon?). Obama has a decent lead. Hillary is hoping he'll stumble and trip. We're comfortable letting it play out into the middle of June--we see very little likelihood at this point that the race will be undecided all the way to the late August convention.
Let the final sprint begin!
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