Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Pennsylvania Narrowing A Bit

A couple polls from Pennsylvania suggest that the Democratic primary race there is narrowing a bit.

Rasmussen has Hillary up by only 5 points, 47%-42%, whereas Survey USA gives Clinton a more comfortable 12 point lead, 53%-41%.

We're not too impressed. The polling in Ohio showed a similar narrowing before Hillary blew Obama away on primary day. Apparently Obama has been spending a lot on television in the Keystone State of late. Our observation in this campaign has been that television hasn't made much of a change in voters' attitudes.

We still expect Hillary to win Pennsylvania fairly comfortably, but then lose North Carolina by a similar margin. (Polls in NC give Obama a 15-18 point edge.)

If it works out that way, Hillary will barely gain anything on Obama, so we'll be right where we are now.

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