Will Bob Barr Hurt--or Help--McCain?

Former very conservative GOP Georgia congressman Bob Barr has announced his intention to run for President on the Libertarian Party ticket.

At least one pundit is out there wondering if Barr's run will hurt John McCain by giving disaffected Republican conservatives an alternative to the heresies of the straight-talking Senator from Arizona. (See "Barr Fight" in The American Spectator.)

But maybe Barr ends up HELPING McCain. (This all assumes that Barr obtains the Libertarian Party nomination, which is no sure thing--for our purposes here, however, let's assume he gets it.)

Yes, it's true that many in the conservative wing of the GOP don't really like McCain, viewing him as far too moderate and accommodationist. But let's face it, once the Democrats nominate either Hillary or Obama, McCain will look plenty conservative. Are there really that many Republicans who will throw away their votes--especially in key swing states--on the Libertarian nominee?

On the other hand, many independent voters like McCain precisely because he's not afraid to thumb his nose at GOP idealogues. To attract those voters, it may be useful to McCain to have someone running to his right, just to remind them of his more moderate views. The battle this Fall will certainly be in the middle, not on the fringes, especially in battleground states like Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado.

We're not saying Barr's candidacy doesn't pose risks for McCain. Certainly, if he's forced to tack right, it will hurt him. Furthermore, if Barr's candidacy were to inspire some other fairly well-known conservatives (say a Tom Tancredo) to mount independent campaigns, the effect could be significant. McCain's strategists will be well aware of the Nader effect in 2000, where Nader's votes exceeded the margin of Al Gore's "defeat" in Florida.

If nothing else, we welcome Barr's entry into the race because it gives us political bloggers yet one more item to speculate upon rampantly.