Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Obama Can Run Out The Clock

With Guam, North Carolina and Indiana looming, it looks like Obama will be able to run out the clock on Hillary.

As we bounce along through the nomination turbulence, both Obama and Hillary are picking up 1-2 superdelegates per day. Obama can easily afford to match Hillary 1-for-1 in this process, which is about what he's been doing of late.

By next Wednesday, it's likely that Obama will have roughly 1840-1850 delegates. (Right now he has 1732; he should pick up about 68-70 in NC; 32-34 in Indiana; 2-4 in Guam; and another 10 or so superdelegates.) That would put him within 175-185 delegates of the nomination, with a lead over Hillary of 140+ delegates.

The math gets pretty compelling at that point. And no superdelegate wants to jump on board too late. So despite all the Wright wringing, look for this thing to wind down before too long.

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