Once again, it's that time of year when the "experts" try to forecast hurricane activity for the coming season.
One of those experts, who's been at it for a number of years, is Colorado State meteorologist William Gray. His forecast for this season, which starts in June: "a well above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2008" with "an above-average probability of United States major hurricane landfall." The details are here.
Okay, but don't rush out to Home Depot for plywood, bottled water, a generator and a chain saw just yet.
These were the same guys who told us the past two years that we would also have "above-average" hurricane seasons, only to have us end up (thankfully) with well BELOW the average for Atlantic tropical activity. Nor did they hit the mark--or even come close--in 2005 when we had a whopper of a season that broke numerous records and included Katrina.
No doubt, just by the luck of the draw, these guys will eventually come close. After all, there's really only three forecasts: below average, average and above average. Surely, after two below average years, the chances of a more active season this year are pretty good. But then, you hardly needed an "expert"--especially one who's been notably unreliable in the past--to tell you that.