With still quite awhile to go (more than three weeks--an eternity in this political season), the Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary race is definitely getting tighter.
A couple weeks ago, Hillary Clinton maintained a comfy double digit lead over Barack Obama in all the Pennsylvania polls. That's no longer true. The five most recent polls have Hillary's lead down to less than 6 points, on average:
Insider Advantage: Hillary 45% Obama 42%
Public Policy Polling: Obama 45% Hillary 43%
Rasmussen: Hillary 47% Obama 42%
Insider Advantage: Hillary 53% Obama 41%
Quinnipiac: Hillary 50% Obama 41%
Nonetheless, once burned, twice shy. Polls before Ohio and Texas showed a dramatic narrowing, with Obama leading in Texas, only to have Hillary comfortably take both primaries that day.
Still, it's a dangerous moment for Hillary. She's expected to win Pennsylvania. If she doesn't, it will be a major blow to her campaign, especially if followed by a likely loss in North Carolina a couple weeks ago. [The Curmudgeon's brother and sister, living in Raleigh, NC, are still stunned that their votes will actually matter at such a late date.]
One possible motivation for swing/undecided voters to break toward Obama: to end this impasse and avoid a convention mess.
As we said, however, there's still a long way to go until April 22!
Showing posts with label Pennsylvania Democratic Primary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pennsylvania Democratic Primary. Show all posts
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Texas Democratic Primary Polls: Texas Hold-em!
Whether you're a fan of Hillary or a fan of Obama, there's good news for you in today's polls of the Texas Democratic primary:
According to Rasmussen, it's Obama in the lead, 48%-44%.
According to Insider Advantage, it's Hillary in the lead, 47%-43%.
That's another way of saying it's a dead heat.
Clinton seems to have finally stabilized in Texas after giving up a double digit lead of just a couple weeks ago. She has a slight advantage because, as we noted a couple days ago, a significant portion of the state has ALREADY voted, and she held a 51-46% lead amongst those early voters (as of three days ago).
Speaking of polls, there is another Pennsylvania poll out today confirming that Hillary's once nearly 20 point lead there has evaporated. Rasmussen gives her a mere 4 point lead, in line with the six point lead she had in yesterday's Quinnipiac poll.
According to Rasmussen, it's Obama in the lead, 48%-44%.
According to Insider Advantage, it's Hillary in the lead, 47%-43%.
That's another way of saying it's a dead heat.
Clinton seems to have finally stabilized in Texas after giving up a double digit lead of just a couple weeks ago. She has a slight advantage because, as we noted a couple days ago, a significant portion of the state has ALREADY voted, and she held a 51-46% lead amongst those early voters (as of three days ago).
Speaking of polls, there is another Pennsylvania poll out today confirming that Hillary's once nearly 20 point lead there has evaporated. Rasmussen gives her a mere 4 point lead, in line with the six point lead she had in yesterday's Quinnipiac poll.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Tightens Up, Too
Not only has Obama passed Clinton in Texas and nearly caught her in Ohio, but Clinton's one nearly double-digit lead in Pennsylvania (an April primary) has nearly evaporated as well.
According to a Quinnipiac poll, Obama has cut Hillary's lead in Pennsylvania from 16 points not too long ago to just 6 points--49%-43%.
We're ready to begin the general election campaign, but out of respect for Senator Clinton, we'll wait until next Wednesday.
According to a Quinnipiac poll, Obama has cut Hillary's lead in Pennsylvania from 16 points not too long ago to just 6 points--49%-43%.
We're ready to begin the general election campaign, but out of respect for Senator Clinton, we'll wait until next Wednesday.
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