Latest Polls For Texas and Ohio Show Clinton Staving Off Obama

Holy Democratic Primaries, Batman, it's going to be really interesting tomorrow night in Texas and Ohio.

For the past two weeks, Obama steadily chipped away at Hillary's lead in both "must-win" states (for Clinton), seeming to take the lead in Texas and narrow the gap considerably in Ohio.

But the last round of pre-vote polling (actually, in Texas the voting has been going on at quite a pace for the past couple of weeks already) appears to show Hillary getting a mini-bounce back!

Was it her surprise appearance on Saturday Night Live? Or is it just that Democrats aren't ready for this battle to end?

Whatever the reason, here's what the polls show as of this evening, with the voting set to finish tomorrow.

TEXAS

Rasmussen has Obama up by 1 point, 47%-46%, which is down from his 4 point lead a few days ago in the Rasmussen poll. (It's dangerous to compare across polls, due to different methodologies, but useful to track across the same poll over a period of days.)

But Insider Advantage gives Hillary a five point lead, 49%-44%, again a slight reversal from just a few days ago, when this poll had Hillary up by four points. (Yes, we know--not statistically significant!) Interestingly, this poll says Hillary has a pretty sizeable lead among those who have already voted, 55%-43%. If that's accurate, Obama has a pretty big hole to climb out of tomorrow.

In the Public Policy Polling survey, Hillary has a six point lead, 50%-44%.

On the plus side for Obama, Survey USA has him up by one point, 49%-48%, which is closer than the 4 point lead Obama had in the last round of this poll. Survey USA also reported results of its survey of those who have already voted, and it was much closer than with Insider Advantage, with Clinton leading 50%-48% (which is smaller than the lead she had among those who had already voted a few days ago in this poll).

Finally, Reuters/Zogby's "tracking" poll has Obama up by 3 points, 49%-46%, which is roughly where he's been in this poll for a few days.

Bottom line: after catching Hillary and passing her in many various polls by mid- to late last week, Obama has stalled and perhaps slipped back a bit in Texas. This one will be very close.

Keep in mind, however, Obama's slight advantage with delegates due to the "Texas two-step"--there is also a caucus tomorrow night in Texas--and the way delegates are allocated that somewhat disfavors the Hispanic southwest part of the state. So Obama could lose the popular vote and still win the delegate count.

Ohio

In Ohio, Hillary is maintaining a small lead in most polls, having stabilized after a brief free-fall from her double digit lead a couple weeks ago. Here's the latest:

Rasmussen has Hillary up 6, 50%-44%.

Suffolk University has Hillary up by 12, 52%-40%.

Public Policy Polling has Hillary up by 9, 51%-42%.

Survey USA has Hillary up by 10, 54%-44%. Among the 16% in the poll sample who had already voted, Hillary was leading 56%-43%.

Quinnipiac gives Hillary a 4 point lead, 49-45%, which is her smallest lead yet in this poll.

Finally, Reuters/Zogby is the only poll giving Obama a lead in Ohio, 47%-45%. If Obama does win in Ohio, give these guys credit. But they've been a bit of an outlier in polls in other primaries, so don't hold your breath.

Based on these polls, Senator Clinton should win a small, but comfortable victory over Senator Obama, but as we've seen this election year, anything can happen!

Polls, Polls and More March 4 Polls; And More Delegates, Too

Since we've been keeping you up to date on polls on the Texas Democratic primary and Ohio Democratic primary all week, we might as well keep it up.

Here's the latest out of Texas, which shows Obama consolidating his small lead:

Reuters/Zogby (which we think has had a spotty record this primary season) has Obama up by six points, 48%-42%.

Fox News has Obama up 48%-45%.

Of the last eight polls out of Texas (conducted Feb. 22-28), only one had Hillary up, one had a tie and the rest gave Obama a small lead.

Of course, if you go back to New Hampshire, you'll see a similar pattern, so don't get too excited yet.

Then there's the so-called "Texas two-step": Texans don't only vote in a primary next Tuesday, they also caucus. Why, we're not sure, but about a third of the Texas delegates are up for grabs in the caucus and Obama may have an advantage there. He also has an advantage in the way the primary delegates are divvied up (we won't go into the details, but essentially, Hispanic south Texas, where Hillary is favored, will have disproportionately few delegates).

Bottom line: no matter what, Obama should rack up more delegates than Hillary in Texas.

In Ohio, we have three new polls, showing the race tight, but still leaning Hillary's way:

Rasmussen has it as a two point margin for Senator Clinton, 47%-45%.

Reuters/Zogby also has it a two point ballgame for Hillary, 44%-42%.

But Fox News gives Hillary a bigger margin, 8 points, at 46%-38%. Seems like a lot of undecideds there (and in Reuters) so it could break either way.

While we're here, we noted that in the RealClearPolitics.com delegate count, Barack Obama jumped from about 1279 delegates yesterday to 1384 today (and Hillary also went up, by about 95 delegates). Since there were no nominating contests between today and yesterday, we're wondering where all those new delegates came from! We wish RCP (and other outlets with delegate counts) would footnote their tallies, or provide a brief blurb when updates are made, to let us know where the newbies came from.

Texas Democratic Primary Polls: Texas Hold-em!

Whether you're a fan of Hillary or a fan of Obama, there's good news for you in today's polls of the Texas Democratic primary:

According to Rasmussen, it's Obama in the lead, 48%-44%.

According to Insider Advantage, it's Hillary in the lead, 47%-43%.

That's another way of saying it's a dead heat.

Clinton seems to have finally stabilized in Texas after giving up a double digit lead of just a couple weeks ago. She has a slight advantage because, as we noted a couple days ago, a significant portion of the state has ALREADY voted, and she held a 51-46% lead amongst those early voters (as of three days ago).

Speaking of polls, there is another Pennsylvania poll out today confirming that Hillary's once nearly 20 point lead there has evaporated. Rasmussen gives her a mere 4 point lead, in line with the six point lead she had in yesterday's Quinnipiac poll.

Obamania Spreads Through Texas, Threatens Ohio

It looks increasingly like March 4 will be the end of the road for Hillary Clinton. As soon as Obama wrapped up Wisconsin a week ago, he turned his attention--and that of his enormously enthusiastic campaign--on Texas and Ohio.

As has been the case in state after state, give Obama a few days to get his massive and inspiring rallies going, and he soon has voters converting to his candidacy.

It appears that's exactly what's happening in Texas and Ohio. New polls in both states today continue to show Obama surging, with an outright lead in Texas and rapidly narrowing the gap in Ohio.

Here's the latest: Survey USA has Obama up 4 points in Texas, leading Hillary by 49%-45%. This is the same lead Obama had in a CNN poll released yesterday. One interesting stat in the Survey USA poll: about 25% of the respondents in that poll who indicated they were likely to vote in the Democratic primary have ALREADY voted--among those voters, Clinton leads 51%-46%. Given how large Clinton's lead was just a couple weeks ago, those are NOT encouraging numbers for Camp Hillary, as they likely indicate the best she could possibly hope to achieve in a "must win" state. (This poll also shows that while Obama still trails amongst Hispanic voters, the gap is closing fast.)

[For more on the massive turnout in early voting in Texas, particularly amongst Democrats, see "Early Voters Swarm In Texas," from the Dallas Morning News.]

There is also a new American Research Group poll out for Texas, which has Obama up by 8 points, 50%-42%.

Today is also the first time that Obama has led Texas in the RealClearPolitics.com moving average of polls.

In short, barring a game-changer, Obama is now quite likely to take Texas.

In Ohio, Clinton still leads, but her lead is shrinking. With a week to go, we wouldn't put it out of Obama's reach to carry Ohio, especially given that polls in Wisconsin showed a close race, but in the end Obama walloped Hillary there. A new Rasmussen poll in Ohio has Hillary up by 5 points, 48%-43%. That's down from 17% two weeks ago and 8% a week ago. Imagine what it's like watching these poll numbers if you're in the Clinton campaign--it's really unbelievable.

We think it will all be over for the Democrats on March 4, and thank goodness--the deadlocked convention scenarios we were pondering were quite ugly. That said, we truly feel bad for Hillary, and while we like Obama a lot, we still think there's a significant element of risk in his nomination.

March 4 Poll Roundup: Obama UP in Texas, Vermont; Trailing in Ohio, Rhode Island

Are we seeing the beginning of the end for Hillary Clinton's campaign? A slew of new polls are out today and yesterday for the "must win" Democratic primaries on March 4.

The most significant is in Texas, where a new CNN poll has put Barack Obama in the lead for the first time, 50% to Hillary's 46% (a week ago, Hillary was up by 2 points in this poll). A Rasmussen poll has Hillary up by one point (47-46), but confirms Obama momentum in Texas--two weeks ago, Hillary was up 16 points in this poll, and a week ago she was up 3 points.

At this point, it looks like Obama will either win Texas or make it so close that Hillary will get no delegate advantage.

The news for Senator Clinton is better in Ohio, where two new polls show her maintaining a comfortable lead, at least for now: The Ohio Poll has Hillary up 47%-39%, while Quinnipiac has Clinton leading 51%-40%. In the latter poll, however, Obama had trailed by 19 points a week and half ago.

The other two, less visible, primaries on March 4 look to be a split: in Vermont, the Rasmussen poll has Obama way out in front (as expected there), leading 57%-33%. In Rhode Island, however, Hillary is up by almost as lopsided a margin, 53%-38% according to Rasmussen.

Perhaps the Clinton team should've included Rhode Island, instead of Texas, in it's "firewall."

So what happens if Hillary at least breaks Obama's long winning streak by taking Ohio and RI, but losing Texas and Vermont? In our view, the loss of Texas should mean it's all over--and many "superdelegates" may join in that assessment. But we think the Clinton campaign will hang on for the Pennsylvania primary, which seems like an eon away--not until late April.

New Texas, Ohio Polls Show Very Tight Race Between Clinton and Obama

Some more new polls out of Texas and Ohio show Obama continuing to gain ground, especially in the Lone Star state:

Texas: ABC/Wash. Post--Clinton 48% v Obama 47%

Texas: Rasmussen--Clinton 47% v Obama 44%

Ohio: ABC/Wash. Post--Clinton 50% v Obama 43% (this is Clinton's narrowest lead so far in Ohio)

By the way, even if Hillary were to win by these margins, she'd barely cut into Obama's delegate lead (indeed, he could lose Texas by a point or two but score MORE delegates due to some quirks in the Texas system).

March 4 Is Do or Deadlock For Democrats

With Barack Obama's surprisingly lopsided victory in Wisconsin last night, coupled with his expected runaway in Hawaii, the die is cast for a decisive showdown on March 4.

That day will be a bit like the Florida primary was for the Republicans: had anyone but McCain won Florida--whether it had been Romney, Giuliani or Huckabee--the GOP race would have been up in the air for at least another month, maybe longer.

On March 4, Democrats will go to the polls in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont. Barring some major gaffe between now and then, Obama should take Vermont with ease. Hillary has declared Texas and Ohio to be her "firewall," and Rhode Island--looking a lot like Massachusetts--should lean her way as well.

If Hillary wins Texas and Ohio, she will have stopped Obama's increasing momentum--10 straight victories--cold, and she'd probably earn enough delegates from those two large states to close the gap Obama has opened up.

The problem for Democrats is this: if Hillary wins both Texas and Ohio, it doesn't mean she's got the nomination wrapped up. Far from it. Instead, it would be more like what would've happened if Giuliani had won in Florida: it sets up a virtual guarantee of a deadlocked convention.

You see, after March 4, apart from Pennsylvania, many of the remaining contests favor Obama. Neither Hillary nor Obama could come anywhere close to the nomination on pledged delegates alone, and with Hillary's prospects still alive, there'd be no stampede of superdelegates to either candidate. Indeed, the most likely scenario would be a waiting game as approximately 200 undecided superdelegates courted both sides while furious back-room maneuvering occurred all summer.

In contrast, if Obama wins both Texas and Ohio, he's got the nomination. No, he won't be over the top in delegates, anymore-so than McCain was after Florida. But at that point Obama is unstoppable: superdelegates can't afford to pledge to Hillary; her money dries up; and party elders begin the game of trying to get her to gracefully bow out.

What if Obama and Clinton split Ohio and Texas? At that point, Hillary is pretty badly wounded (especially if she also loses Rhode Island), but she probably presses on, at least for awhile, until Pennsylvania. (In the meantime, Obama would likely win the Wyoming caucuses on March 8 and the Mississippi primary on March 11, but after that there's nothing at all until Pennsylvania on April 22). [Note: we would've had Florida and Michigan in this period if they hadn't unwisely moved their contests up; they could've been the decisive contests.]

In short, the only way Obama really becomes the "presumptive" nominee is if he wins both Texas and Ohio. Otherwise, this race is bound to go on into late April, perhaps much longer.

The good news, for Obama fans, is this: polls show both Texas and Ohio tightening considerably, even before Obama's route in Wisconsin. Perhaps more importantly, Obama has two weeks--a luxurious amount of time in the crowded, hectic campaign calendar of this year--to personally stump through both states. So far, the enthusiasm of his rallies has been infectious wherever he's gone. We think he has an excellent chance of winning Texas and a decent chance in Ohio, so Democrats' worst nightmare--a deadlocked convention--may yet be avoided.

CNN Texas Poll: Obama Within Two of Hillary

A CNN poll released today has Obama gaining rapidly on Hillary Clinton in the Texas Democratic primary, with Hillary leading by only 2%.

As we've said earlier today, if Obama wins Wisconsin tomorrow and then goes on to take either Texas or Ohio, he may be unstoppable--he still won't get enough pledged delegates to go over the top, but his lead over Hillary may be enough to dry up her remaining support.

It doesn't hurt Obama that in poll after poll now of head-to-head match-ups with McCain, Hillary loses while Obama wins. (Here at the Curmudgeon, however, we'd caution you to discount those polls heavily--they are virtually meaningless at this stage of the campaign.)

Will Hillary's Texas/Ohio "Firewall" Hold?

Hillary Clinton's campaign is counting on the March 4 primaries in two big states--Texas and Ohio--to form a "firewall" to stop Obama's recent string of victories, including anticipated wins in Hawaii and Wisconsin next Tuesday.

Obama is sure to carry his birthstate of Hawaii; Wisconsin is a closer matter, but he does lead in polls there.

We wonder about the "firewall" strategy. The last time we heard someone using that strategy, it was Rudy Giuliani, in Florida. We all know how well that worked out: after spending $65 million and leading in national polls by as much as 20 points, Rudy G. managed all of one delegate to the GOP convention.

There is a difference between Hillary's firewall and Rudy's. Giuliani's was a dumb strategy all along, doomed to failure--he couldn't just drop out of the media spotlight for six weeks at the beginning of the formal voting season and just pop back up in Florida as if nothing had happened in the interim. In contrast, Hillary is locked into a tight battle with Obama, and, far from being invisible, she is actively campaigning in the key states. Also, for the Dems, it's a two-candidate race now, not the multi-man scrum Giuliani was facing, and with the GOP race essentially over, the entire spotlight is now on Hillary and Obama.

Still, when you announce that certain states are "must win"--which the firewall strategy essentially does--you set yourself up for a fall (and you don't get much credit when you do win). So what of Ohio and Texas?

We think Clinton will do well in Ohio--she has a large lead in polls there (roughly 20 points), and that's notwithstanding Obama's recent string of victories. Ohio has plenty of blue collar Democrats and that's where Hillary's core strength is. Hillary's lead in Ohio won't change much if Obama also wins Hawaii and Wisconsin since the Mainstream Media is already projecting those as Obama victories anyway. To be sure, Ohio will tighten, in part because Obama will start campaigning there and his rallies are truly impressive.

Texas could be a different story. Three Texas polls came out in the last day or so, with two showing Hillary up by just a few points and one giving her a 16 point advantage. We think Texas Democrats, like Democrats in many other "red" states (like our Commonwealth of Virginny here) are tired of losing in presidential elections and want a winner--in their state--and see Obama as having that potential. In any event, Hillary's lead with Hispanic voters has been shrinking. We think Obama can close the gap in Texas. And really, since Clinton has said she has to win there, all Obama has to do is make it close.

Suppose Hillary does win Ohio--handily--and Texas in a squeaker? Well, there are other contests on March 4--Rhode Island and Vermont--where Obama may do well (we're not so sure about Rhode Island after what happened in Massachusetts), so he probably won't be shut out that day. And right after March 4 are the Wyoming caucuses and Mississippi primary, where Obama will be heavily favored.

At most, Hillary could get enough delegates out of Ohio and Texas to close the growing gap with Obama. By the same token, even if Obama wins Texas and makes Ohio close, he'll still be far from victory in delegates, although it might be a strong enough psychological blow to knock Clinton out of the race, or to destroy her fundraising base.

And we wouldn't rule out Obama sweeping on March 4, or coming close: many Democratic voters have to be wondering now how this is all going to end. Right now, Obama is leading in delegates and popular votes. Are some of those voters going to say to themselves, "look, all things being equal, I'd prefer Hillary; but we just can't have a deadlock and let the Republicans walk away with this; Obama is acceptable--I'm going to vote for him." If Obama can figure out a way to pitch that subtly, he could carry the day.

Having said all of the foregoing, we agree with a Clinton strategist with whom we spoke in the past few days about the firewall strategy: what other choice does Hillary have?