Latest Polls For Texas and Ohio Show Clinton Staving Off Obama

Holy Democratic Primaries, Batman, it's going to be really interesting tomorrow night in Texas and Ohio.

For the past two weeks, Obama steadily chipped away at Hillary's lead in both "must-win" states (for Clinton), seeming to take the lead in Texas and narrow the gap considerably in Ohio.

But the last round of pre-vote polling (actually, in Texas the voting has been going on at quite a pace for the past couple of weeks already) appears to show Hillary getting a mini-bounce back!

Was it her surprise appearance on Saturday Night Live? Or is it just that Democrats aren't ready for this battle to end?

Whatever the reason, here's what the polls show as of this evening, with the voting set to finish tomorrow.

TEXAS

Rasmussen has Obama up by 1 point, 47%-46%, which is down from his 4 point lead a few days ago in the Rasmussen poll. (It's dangerous to compare across polls, due to different methodologies, but useful to track across the same poll over a period of days.)

But Insider Advantage gives Hillary a five point lead, 49%-44%, again a slight reversal from just a few days ago, when this poll had Hillary up by four points. (Yes, we know--not statistically significant!) Interestingly, this poll says Hillary has a pretty sizeable lead among those who have already voted, 55%-43%. If that's accurate, Obama has a pretty big hole to climb out of tomorrow.

In the Public Policy Polling survey, Hillary has a six point lead, 50%-44%.

On the plus side for Obama, Survey USA has him up by one point, 49%-48%, which is closer than the 4 point lead Obama had in the last round of this poll. Survey USA also reported results of its survey of those who have already voted, and it was much closer than with Insider Advantage, with Clinton leading 50%-48% (which is smaller than the lead she had among those who had already voted a few days ago in this poll).

Finally, Reuters/Zogby's "tracking" poll has Obama up by 3 points, 49%-46%, which is roughly where he's been in this poll for a few days.

Bottom line: after catching Hillary and passing her in many various polls by mid- to late last week, Obama has stalled and perhaps slipped back a bit in Texas. This one will be very close.

Keep in mind, however, Obama's slight advantage with delegates due to the "Texas two-step"--there is also a caucus tomorrow night in Texas--and the way delegates are allocated that somewhat disfavors the Hispanic southwest part of the state. So Obama could lose the popular vote and still win the delegate count.

Ohio

In Ohio, Hillary is maintaining a small lead in most polls, having stabilized after a brief free-fall from her double digit lead a couple weeks ago. Here's the latest:

Rasmussen has Hillary up 6, 50%-44%.

Suffolk University has Hillary up by 12, 52%-40%.

Public Policy Polling has Hillary up by 9, 51%-42%.

Survey USA has Hillary up by 10, 54%-44%. Among the 16% in the poll sample who had already voted, Hillary was leading 56%-43%.

Quinnipiac gives Hillary a 4 point lead, 49-45%, which is her smallest lead yet in this poll.

Finally, Reuters/Zogby is the only poll giving Obama a lead in Ohio, 47%-45%. If Obama does win in Ohio, give these guys credit. But they've been a bit of an outlier in polls in other primaries, so don't hold your breath.

Based on these polls, Senator Clinton should win a small, but comfortable victory over Senator Obama, but as we've seen this election year, anything can happen!