Are we seeing the beginning of the end for Hillary Clinton's campaign? A slew of new polls are out today and yesterday for the "must win" Democratic primaries on March 4.The most significant is in Texas, where a new CNN poll has put Barack Obama in the lead for the first time, 50% to Hillary's 46% (a week ago, Hillary was up by 2 points in this poll). A Rasmussen poll has Hillary up by one point (47-46), but confirms Obama momentum in Texas--two weeks ago, Hillary was up 16 points in this poll, and a week ago she was up 3 points.
At this point, it looks like Obama will either win Texas or make it so close that Hillary will get no delegate advantage.
The news for Senator Clinton is better in Ohio, where two new polls show her maintaining a comfortable lead, at least for now: The Ohio Poll has Hillary up 47%-39%, while Quinnipiac has Clinton leading 51%-40%. In the latter poll, however, Obama had trailed by 19 points a week and half ago.
The other two, less visible, primaries on March 4 look to be a split: in Vermont, the Rasmussen poll has Obama way out in front (as expected there), leading 57%-33%. In Rhode Island, however, Hillary is up by almost as lopsided a margin, 53%-38% according to Rasmussen.
Perhaps the Clinton team should've included Rhode Island, instead of Texas, in it's "firewall."
So what happens if Hillary at least breaks Obama's long winning streak by taking Ohio and RI, but losing Texas and Vermont? In our view, the loss of Texas should mean it's all over--and many "superdelegates" may join in that assessment. But we think the Clinton campaign will hang on for the Pennsylvania primary, which seems like an eon away--not until late April.
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