Obama's Best Shot

A few days ago, we did the math for the remaining Democratic nominating contests, concluding that neither Obama nor Hillary has much chance of even coming close to winning the nomination on pledged delegates alone.

For another take on the math, which will get you to essentially the same conclusion, see Michael Barone's piece in U.S. News, "More On A Hillary Comeback." Barone approaches it from Hillary's side of the legdger and concludes that, even with very optimistic assumptions for winning Wisconsin, Texas and Ohio, she'd still trail Obama in pledged delegates, although it would be pretty close at that point.

Barone also briefly reviews the post-March 4 contests and finds them somewhat more favorable to Hillary than to Obama, but that, of course, is only if Sen. Clinton succeeds on March 4.

Which pretty much leads us to this conclusion: Obama has one chance to put this whole thing away and avoid the trainwreck of a deadlocked convention with disputes over seating delegates and all kinds of other entertainment. That chance is to defeat Hillary in either (or both) of Ohio and Texas.

Based on some polls, we think Obama has a better chance in Texas, but we wouldn't write-off Ohio. Certainly, if Obama won both, the pressure on Clinton to give it up would grow immense. While she's said she needs to win both, if she barely loses Texas, but wins Ohio, she'll probably pledge to forge ahead anyway.

While we're at it, there may be yet another source of delegate challenges at the convention if the condidates remain deadlocked. In addition to Michigan and Florida, and potentially Puerto Rico (if it sticks to a plan to award delegates on a winner-take-all basis), there's Texas.

The issue in Texas is that it awards its delegates on the basis of state Senate districts (rather than congressional districts, like most states). That's no problem standing alone, but not every Senate district in Texas is equal in delegates--the state party gives more delegates to state senate districts that had a high turn-out for Kerry in 2004 and for the most recent Democratic nominee for governor.

It so happens that this formula penalizes some Hispanic senate districts where turnout has been low in general elections, but where Hillary expects to do well on March 4. As a result, Hillary could carry the state, but be about even in delegates. Whether this issue is enough to sustain a delegate challenge is not clear. (Another quirk in the Texas delegate allocation process is that all the statewide delegates will be selected by caucuses, held in the evening on March 4, which may favor Obama.)

As a general rule, we think the close the nomination, the more of these delegate challenges will occur.