Could a Saturday miracle be in progress for Mike Huckabee? Before today, he told his supporters he was hoping for a miracle.
It may be occurring! Kansas, Lousiana and Washington have caucuses/primaries today on the GOP side and lo and behold, McCain isn't doing well at all. As of now (10:20 pm EST), Huckabee killed McCain in Kansas, taking all 36 delegates; he is leading by 12 points in a Louisiana beauty contest (the delegates were selected a few weeks ago and somewhat favored McCain, but enough are uncommitted to swing it to Huckabee), and he's within one point in Washington, where McCain has gotten only 27% of the vote (Dr. Paul has 21% and Romney has 17%).
Even if McCain ekes out a "victory" in Washington, no frontrunner can be comfortable scoring under 30% after he's been pronounced the virtual victor.
This is a clear repudiation of McCain, and if repeated in the Potomac Primary (Va., Md., and DC) on Tuesday, will throw the GOP side back into complete chaos.
3 comments:
Unless Huckabee can win all of the remaining states like he won in Kansas, McCain will be the nominee. Although I think Huckabee can probably do pretty well, I don't he will do as well in most states as he did in Kansas.
He doesn't need to win all the states like he did in Kansas. In Kansas he took every single delegate. He can afford to lose 40-45% of the delegates that remain.
What happened in Kansas was a landslide. In fact even though McCain has won many states the vote was never so one sided in any of them.
The typical reality is that the vote was split more or less three ways and he came out on top by just a few percentage points.
It remains to be seen if with Romney out he can maintain his performance.
To be sure, there is no longer very much division with social conservatives.
I meant percentage-wise. Over 50% of the delegates have been awarded, and Huckabee needs twice as many as McCain to win the nomination. Unless Huckabee gets more than 85% of the remaining delegates, he will not win the nomination. That's a far cry from 55-60%. Assuming he got all of Romney's delegates, which most likely won't happen, he'd still need over 60% to win the nomination. Don't forget Huckabee did not do very well in many of the states where Romney won a lot of delegates.
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