The Early Line On Super Tuesday

Here's a quick early take on Super Tuesday (updated at 10:00 pm):

McCain is doing about as well as expected, which is good for him. In a couple of states he is clearly benefitting from a split between Romney and Huckabee. In Oklahoma, Romney and Huckabee have 55% of the vote, but McCain is leading with 38%. In Tennessee, Huckabee is tied with McCain (for now), but with Romney taking over 20%, he is keeping McCain in the game there. If McCain wins both those states, it is a very good night for him.

Huckabee is exceeding expectations, with his win in West Virginia, wins in Arkansas and Alabama, likely win in Georgia and so far a strong showing in Missouri and a shot at winning Tennessee, and maybe even Minnesota.

Romney isn't doing very well, with just Massachusetts so far. He'll really need to win California later tonight, and do well in the caucus states: Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, Montana and North Dakota.

And the BIG losers: Limbaugh, Coulter, Buchanan, et al. Obviously, their line that a vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain has not only fallen on deaf ears, it may even have backfired. And it reveals a sharp fault line between the hard core conservatives and evangelicals, the latter of which remain very suspicious of Romney. If they're really that anti-McCain, then maybe they should endorse Huckabee after his performance tonight (but they won't).

On the Democratic side, Hillary is doing a little better than expected, with a lopsided win in Massachusetts despite Obama endorsements by the party hierarchy, and apparent wins in Tennessee and Missouri.

Obama needs to win California. His apparent wins in Connecticut and Delaware, however, are good showings. More polls close right now, so we'll see what's happening and report back.