March 4 Is Do or Deadlock For Democrats

With Barack Obama's surprisingly lopsided victory in Wisconsin last night, coupled with his expected runaway in Hawaii, the die is cast for a decisive showdown on March 4.

That day will be a bit like the Florida primary was for the Republicans: had anyone but McCain won Florida--whether it had been Romney, Giuliani or Huckabee--the GOP race would have been up in the air for at least another month, maybe longer.

On March 4, Democrats will go to the polls in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont. Barring some major gaffe between now and then, Obama should take Vermont with ease. Hillary has declared Texas and Ohio to be her "firewall," and Rhode Island--looking a lot like Massachusetts--should lean her way as well.

If Hillary wins Texas and Ohio, she will have stopped Obama's increasing momentum--10 straight victories--cold, and she'd probably earn enough delegates from those two large states to close the gap Obama has opened up.

The problem for Democrats is this: if Hillary wins both Texas and Ohio, it doesn't mean she's got the nomination wrapped up. Far from it. Instead, it would be more like what would've happened if Giuliani had won in Florida: it sets up a virtual guarantee of a deadlocked convention.

You see, after March 4, apart from Pennsylvania, many of the remaining contests favor Obama. Neither Hillary nor Obama could come anywhere close to the nomination on pledged delegates alone, and with Hillary's prospects still alive, there'd be no stampede of superdelegates to either candidate. Indeed, the most likely scenario would be a waiting game as approximately 200 undecided superdelegates courted both sides while furious back-room maneuvering occurred all summer.

In contrast, if Obama wins both Texas and Ohio, he's got the nomination. No, he won't be over the top in delegates, anymore-so than McCain was after Florida. But at that point Obama is unstoppable: superdelegates can't afford to pledge to Hillary; her money dries up; and party elders begin the game of trying to get her to gracefully bow out.

What if Obama and Clinton split Ohio and Texas? At that point, Hillary is pretty badly wounded (especially if she also loses Rhode Island), but she probably presses on, at least for awhile, until Pennsylvania. (In the meantime, Obama would likely win the Wyoming caucuses on March 8 and the Mississippi primary on March 11, but after that there's nothing at all until Pennsylvania on April 22). [Note: we would've had Florida and Michigan in this period if they hadn't unwisely moved their contests up; they could've been the decisive contests.]

In short, the only way Obama really becomes the "presumptive" nominee is if he wins both Texas and Ohio. Otherwise, this race is bound to go on into late April, perhaps much longer.

The good news, for Obama fans, is this: polls show both Texas and Ohio tightening considerably, even before Obama's route in Wisconsin. Perhaps more importantly, Obama has two weeks--a luxurious amount of time in the crowded, hectic campaign calendar of this year--to personally stump through both states. So far, the enthusiasm of his rallies has been infectious wherever he's gone. We think he has an excellent chance of winning Texas and a decent chance in Ohio, so Democrats' worst nightmare--a deadlocked convention--may yet be avoided.