Presidential Election: Where Are We Now?

The passing of Thanksgiving this year kind of puts us where we'd normally be after Labor Day in a general election: at the beginning of the final sprint, when everyone should finally be getting seriously focused.

So, the Curmudgeon thought it would be useful to take a snapshot of where we are at this critical juncture.

First, how are we doing on the prediction front? In May, we made some fearless prognostications. So far, we're doing ok. We predicted that Gore would not run on the Democratic side and that Thompson would run on the GOP side. But we also said Gingrich would run (and we bet he's wishing he had at this point).

The rest of our crystal ball gazing will have to await future events before we can declare ourselves a political seer. However, we can say this: we're not ready to change any of our remaining predictions, including that Rudy Giuliani won't be the Republican nominee.

Now, where do we stand at this point in time?

Democrats

The Democratic race really hasn't changed much over the past six months. Hillary continues to be the odds-on favorite to get the nomination. She leads in just about every poll in every state, although her lead in Iowa is precariously slim. But then, Hillary has NEVER has a large lead in Iowa--indeed, throughout most of the year she has trailed.

The only candidate who can stop Hillary at this point is Obama. And he is a credible threat. Barack continues to be impressive and to have the aura of something new.

Forget Edwards. He hasn't moved anywhere but sideways or down over the past six months, and now he's sounding shrill. As we've noted many times--and we admired Edwards in '04--there's just no authenticity in the man when he talks about "two Americas" and poverty and all that. The real question is where Edwards' supporters will go--will they gravitate to Obama, simply drop out, or embrace Hillary. All of the above, we think, with somewhat more going to Obama, but too late to help him.

Richardson, who we endorsed early on, has been a disappointment. He climbed into double digits in Iowa and New Hampshire on the strength of his experience, but his debate performances have been inconsistent and his tendency to pander has hurt him. Still, Richardson could be a spoiler, siphoning off just enough Obama/Edwards votes to let Hillary run in the clear. The other, very longshot, scenario for Big Bill is that Barack does well enough in Iowa to blunt Hillary's inevitability, leading to a long campaign of trench warfare in which voters in the later states latch on to Richardson as an alternative. Don't count on it, though.

Bottom line: Hillary gets the nomination, with Obama having a shot. Clinton/Obama as the ticket? For many Dems that would be terrific.

Republicans

The Republican race continues to be more interesting--fascinating really. The very real possibility exists of Republicans getting to their national convention in early September without a nominee--a blogger's dream!

Right now we'd give a slight edge to Mitt Romney, if only because he controls his own destiny--kind of like a college football team at the top of the polls. But then, we've seen how well the #1 football team in the polls has done this year, so expect an "upset."

Here's why we say Romney controls his destiny: at present, he leads in Iowa, although that lead is shrinking. And he leads in New Hampshire, and in South Carolina. Sweep those three, do ok in Florida and probably win Michigan and Romney will be unstoppable.

The chances of Romney pulling off that run, however, are slim, if only because four other guys are doing everything they can to prevent it.

In second place, we'd put Huckabee right now. But he's kind of like an undefeated team with a weak schedule. Now he's in the big leagues--can he still win? If Huckabee can successfully consolidate the Christian right, evangelical Republican base in his corner--as he has done now in Iowa--he will do very well, and at a minimum knock Romney off his game. If Huckabee wins in Iowa, it's a whole new ball game.

In third place, we put Giuliani and McCain in a tie. A TIE you say? "C'mon," you say, "how can you say McCain is anywhere near the Rudester?" As we've been saying, Giuliani's strategy is deeply flawed and his lead in the national poles will evaporate like an arctic iceberg in global warming once he comes in third or worse on both Iowa and New Hampshire. McCain, on the other hand, is on the rebound, and we think a lot of those middle of the road, more traditional, Republicans are going to look at him with a new eye after Giuliani implodes.

So that leaves Fred Thompson in fifth place, unles, of course, he gets passed by Ron Paul, which could happen. Thompson must win SC, but we don't think he realizes that. He has no strategy. Gone in 60 seconds could be the Thompson campaign motto--he'll be gone before February 1.

That's our snapshot, but beware: everyone in this picture is moving around. Any of these GOP candidates, except for Thompson, could come out on top. Or none of them. Perhaps the Republicans will pick Gingrich to break a deadlock at their convention--then he'll look very smart, indeed.

Independents/Third Parties

We won't say much for now. Clearly, Bloomberg is interested. He's just waiting to see how the dust settles. And we still look for a credible right winger (or two) to run under third party labels as the fractured Republican party tries to pull itself together.