Iowa: Huckabee In Reach

The latest Iowa poll, from American Research Group, shows Mike Huckabee within reach of Mitt Romney on the GOP side, with Romney leading 26% to 24%.

If the Huckster can best Romney in Iowa, all bets are off. Romney has been favored for several months now, and while he'd probably still win in New Hampshire, it would be Huckabee emerging with the big mo'. Indeed, a close second by Huckabee will still be the lead story, unless Obama or Edwards can upset Hillary on the Dem side.

We'd still put our money on Romney--he has built a terrific on the ground organization in Iowa, while Huckabee is playing catch up. Those details matter in a caucus state.

The poll also shows danger for Giuliani and Thompson--both of whom we've been warning are in a strategic quandary because they've ignored Iowa to their great peril. McCain, at 10%, trails Rudy and Fred by just one point. If McCain beats either or both, it's going to be very bad for them going into New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Neither can afford to be in fourth, much less fifth(!) place in the first contest.