Presidential Campaign: Time To Get Serious!

A spate of new polls from Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida shows that voters are getting more serious and the races are tightening.

On the Democratic side, one Iowa poll has Hillary and Obama tied, while a New Hamsphire poll has Obama significantly closing the gap on Hillary. In SC it's close too. Indeed, if you look at the RCP average (this is an average of recent polls in each state, compiled by the website Realclearpolitics.com) for the first six Democratic contests (Iowa, NH, Mich., Nevada, SC, Florida), it is Hillary in first and Obama in second in each state. (Contrast that with the GOP, below.)

This is no big surprise. For some Democrats the choice is Hillary or anyone else. For those Democrats (and we don't think it's a huge percentage) it's becoming increasingly clear that the anti-Hillary choice is Obama, so the Barack-meister is starting to consolidate his position. Edwards has shown little movement, Richardson doesn't appear viable and the other candidates are a waste of a vote.

We fully expect the Democratic race to come down to a contest between Hillary and Obama. And, absent a couple big victories by Obama in the early rounds, we think Hillary's money and organization will do the trick once we get down to the mega-primaries of early February.

Don't count Obama out yet, however. Support could coalesce around him and lead him to victory.

On the Republican side, the polls show a tightening, but in a race that could go any which way. Take a look at the RCP averages in the first six nominating contests and you see that, compared to the consistency of the Democratic polls, the GOP is all over the place. All five leading GOP contenders are in at least the top three in at least one state:

Iowa: Romney Huckabee Giuliani Thompson McCain

NH: Romney Giuliani McCain Paul Huckabee

Michigan: Giuliani Romney Thompson McCain Huckabee

Nevada: Giuliani Romney Thompson McCain Paul

SC: Romney Giuliani Thompson McCain Huckabee

Florida: Giuliani Romney Thompson McCain Huckabee

A few caveats on these averages. The polls have been most frequent in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and so the data from those states is more robust. The data from Michigan and Nevada is a couple weeks old and probably doesn't reflect some increased support for Huckabee.

You could also be fooled into thinking, based on this chart, that Romney is in first, Giuliani in a close second, Thompson in third, McCain fourth and Huckabee fifth. But the first two contests--Iowa and New Hampshire--get so much press that they then alter whats going on in the latter states.

The odd man out in Iowa and New Hampshire is Thompson, running fourth in Iowa and not even on the chart for New Hampshire. That puts him way, way behind by the time you get to the next few contests, especially given that polling data shows support for all these candidates to be very soft.

The other caveat is that the one man on the move is Huckabee, whose numbers are beginning to rise across the board in reaction to his rise in Iowa. The most recent Iowa poll, from Rasmussen, for the first time has Huckabee in the lead there, by three percentage points. Not statistically significant, but consistent with his upward trend in the Hawkeye State.

A Huckabee win in Iowa will be a huge story, and we're starting to believe it may well happen, especially since his support is particularly strong among past caucus goers, who are the most likely to attend again.

On the other hand, all the campaigns are now launching ads and spending money like crazy--those poor Iowans won't get a moment's peace over the holidays! And Huckabee's not got as much money as the others, although Giuliani and McCain are probably going to focus more on New Hampshire, while Thompson camps out in South Carolina.

We expect the GOP race will only get tighter as the undecideds make up their minds. This is anybody's ballgame.