Does Guiliani Have A Sound Strategy For Winning?

Yesterday we wondered if Fred Thompson has any strategy at all for his campaign, concluding that he does not.

Today--we guess it's "strategery week" at the Curmudgeon--we ask whether Rudy Giuliani has a sound strategy.

In this morning's Wall Street Journal, Gerald Seib, who edits the Journal's report from Washington, analyzed the Giuliani strategy under the headline "What Giuliani's Lead Really Means."

We couldn't agree more with Seib's analysis. He notes that Rudy's lead in national polls is not analogous to Hillary's lead in national polls because Hillary also leads in all the early caucus/primary states, whereas Rudy does not.

Hillary has clearly made it part of her campaign strategy to contest Iowa, and New Hampshire, and South Carolina, etc.

Giuliani's campaign, however, has decided to focus on the national picture, with a "big state" strategy, which posits that Rudy can lose Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, but still win by carrying the larger states in the mega-primaries that follow close behind the early contests.

We don't think that's a sound strategy. Nor do some neutral observers in the Republican party. Says one strategist quoted by Seib: "They can't just have a Florida strategy and lose four straight races before then."

That's absolutely right. After Iowa and New Hampshire, in particular, the national deck has always gotten shuffled. We don't see it being any different this time around. A so-called front runner can fall very far, very fast, in the turbocharged media environment surrounding those contests. The huge danger for Rudy is that after the early contests, voters in Florida begin to reassess the field, and suddenly he doesn't lead there either.

Let's say Romney comes out blazing, winning Iowa and New Hampshire and coming in second in South Carolina, while Rudy comes in a distant third in Iowa, no better than second in New Hampshire and third--or worse--in SC. Voters in Florida may view Giuliani as damaged goods, especially after a few weeks of intense media scrutiny. Those worried about Romney may coalesce around another candidate.

At that point, even a second place finish in Florida would likely be the end of the road for Giuliani's campaign.

Rudy's campaign acknowledges that they're doing it differently: "This is not necessarily the traditional way," said Giuliani campaign manager Michael DuHaime yesterday. "Conventional wisdom has never guided this campaign."

It's a huge risk for a front-runner. Hillary's campaign toyed with the idea of letting Iowa go, on a similar theory. They wisely re-thought that strategy and now it's Edwards who's struggling to get some kind of momentum.

At this point, we don't think Rudy G's strategery is going to work.