Continued Romney Strength In SC Means Big Showdown For GOP In The Palmetto State

There's another new poll out from South Carolina, and it shows the potential for the Palmetto State to be THE MOST critical contest on the GOP side.

In this latest poll, from Survey USA, Giuliani leads, with 26%, followed by Romney with 20%, then Thompson, McCain and Huckabee at 18%, 14% and 12%. That's darn close. It also confirms what we've been saying here about Romney surging in SC--if you look at the Real Clear Politics tracking chart for SC, Romney was consistently in fourth place all year, up through the beginning of October. That's about what the pundits expected--everyone (including the Curmudgeon) assumed that Romney's Mormonism would be a bigger problem in evangelical SC than in Iowa or New Hampshire, and that he would hence do poorly there.

But a funny thing happened in October: helped, perhaps, by Bob Jones IV and former Governor Jim Edwards, Romney began moving. In the last three SC polls, he has been first or second, and his numbers have jumped about 10 points.

That could be a very big deal, especially for Giuliani and Thompson. Neither Giuliani nor Thompson can afford to lose three in a row of the first three contests. Yet, as it stands, Thompson has no shot in New Hampshire (he polls sixth (!), behind even Ron Paul), and little chance in Iowa.

Giuliani, too, is well behind in Iowa and New Hampshire. Now, it's easy for everyone to say, "of course Romney won NH, it's his neighbor state." And they can even write off Iowa as a quirky caucus state where all that Mormon organizing can pay off (after all, those Mormons do know how to knock on doors).

But Giuliani and ESPECIALLY Thompson can't use those excuses in South Carolina. IF Romney were to win in SC, it would be BIG (assuming he also wins in Iowa and New Hampshire)--it would really solidify him as the GOP frontrunner before the mega-primaries and demonstrate that he has potential in the South.

All of which means the Palmetto State is shaping up to be a very intense contest. And we don't count out McCain and Huckabee, both of whom could keep going with a decent showing in SC. (Indeed, if Romney won SC and say Huckabee came in second after a strong showing in Iowa, then the Huckster would probably outlast both Rudy and Fred.) We think both Giuliani and Thompson are going to soon realize they can't afford to lose SC, and thus will pour more resources into the state; by the same token, we think Romney will realize it could be a knock-out blow for him to win--just think, he could K'O Giuliani before any of the mega-primaries even begin.

Gentlemen, start your engines.

Here's the scenario: