Saturday, May 31, 2008

Michigan & Florida: Don't Worry About Ickes' Threat

The Democratic Party's Rules Committee has decreed that Michigan and Florida will each have all their delegates seated, with each getting a half a vote.

Is half a loaf better than no loaf at all?

Not according to Clintonista campaign poobah Harold Ickes, who "reserved" Hillary's right to take the fight over Michorida all the way to the convention floor in Denver at the end of August.

Relax. Calm down. Don't get all pissed off at Ickes and the Clinton campaign.

All Ickes is doing is what lawyers do. They bluff and bluster. And they do so the loudest just before they cave in and settle. Believe us--we've seen it, and we've done it over a long legal career.

Ickes is the designated bulldog. He has to do this because Hillary hasn't quite yet conceded. She can't play her own barking dog, because then it would be strange indeed for her to concede a few days later.

At this point, the Clinton campaign is holding out one last hope: that it can pull upsets in Montana and South Dakota, proving to superdelegates that Obama has indeed been weakened of late.

We're not saying it won't happen--there's always a chance. But it's not likely. If Hillary doesn't win those states, and can't claim the popular vote title, then look for her to concede by the middle of next week.

[In case you're wondering, the new delegate math is as follows:
Delegates needed to win the nomination: 2117
Obama delegates to date: 2053 Additional needed: 64
Hillary delegates to date: 1877 Additional needed: 240]

No comments: