Friday, October 12, 2007

Presidential Prognostications: Update

A few things have happened in the past week or so to make us think it's time to update our prognostications for the '08 presidential election.


1. Al Gore won't run. Al has now won the Nobel Peace Prize, and some of his supporters are urging this as the occasion for him to announce his candidacy. Sorry, it won't happen. Gore is happy doing what he's doing--and he's effective at it. If he were to throw his hat into the Democratic ring today, he'd (a) have to start the grueling process of fundraising, and (b) still be fairly far behind Hillary. There's no assurance he would win the nomination. We think Al knows better.

2. Previously, we refused to pick a winner in the Democratic race. But now it's looking like Hillary will lock it up absent some major race-shaking event (for which there is still plenty of time).

3. While we have previously endorsed Bill Richardson, and he has made more movement than anyone else, we don't see him winning it. Frankly, we'd like to see him jump into the race for the open Senate seat from New Mexico. No need to do it yet--he can wait until the filing deadline in February, after a few of the early presidential primaries/caucuses are decided.


4. We previously said Gingrich would run on the GOP side, but we were wrong. Too bad--would've been interesting.

5. We still think the Republican race is wide open and could go to the convention without a nominee. Now that would be FUN!

6. We still think there will be at least one, maybe two, fairly well-known Republicans who run for President on an independent or other party ticket. Both Ron Paul and Tom Tancredo have certainly left that door open. Such a move could tilt some fairly close states to the Democrats.


7. We still think there will be a major independent candidate, probably NY Mayor Bloomberg.

Finally, we leave you with this thought: it's October and Iowa/New Hampshire aren't that far off. After months of everyone running in place, we're about to start the real race. Thank goodness!

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