Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Richardson On Move In Iowa

Democratic Presidential candidate Bill Richardson continues to show steady growth, with an Iowa poll putting him at 13 percent of likely caucus participants. When the poll was narrowed to the likeliest caucus voters (those who attended the 2004 caucus, voted in the 2006 primary and say they definitely will attend next year's caucus) Richardson went up to 18 percent, ahead of Barack Obama (at 16%).

There's still a long way to go--seven long months--but so far Richardson is the only candidate on the Democratic side to demonstrate any momentum, gradually moving up from the barely imperceptible 2-3% to now consistently in the double digits.

Barack Obama, meanwhile, cannot afford to come in fourth in Iowa under any circumstances, so look for his campaign to begin some television advertising before long.

Richardson recently went for his pilgrimmage before the editorial board of the Des Moines Register, the largest newspaper in the state, and garnered a nice write-up featuring his good natured sense of humor. See Richardson Packs Jokes, Thick Resume.

If Richardson can finagle himself into a solid third place position in polls in either Iowa or New Hampshire--and especially in both--he can really start to shake up the Democratic race and perhaps show movement in the national polls as well. He's got plenty of time, and there's no need to peak too early.


Anonymous said...

Richardson will not be the nominee and will not come in any place higher then fourth, he is only that high because of commercials. He will probably will be someone's VP nominee. His funding is good for fourth place, but will not be able to keep up with the pack who can fundraise and constantly show commericials until the caucus in January.

(same reason Edwards is 'leading' in Iowa first to commericals)

Vivian J. Paige said...

Obama ads are scheduled to start today.

I think Richardson still has time to crack into the top tier.