Bill Richardson Calls It Quits

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson will announce tomorrow that he is quitting the presidential race, AP reports.

Good for Bill--it's the right thing for him to do. We liked Gov. Bill and endorsed him early on, but despite about a month of movement during the summer he never really caught on, hindered especially by a couple of erratic debate performances.

Look for Richardson to resurface in someone's cabinet, possibly as Secretary of State, and look for him to help out with the Latino community come this Fall, regardless of who the nominee is.

That is, unless he decides to run for the Senate seat in New Mexico being vacated by Pete Domenici--it would be Richardson's for the taking, although he told Democratic Rep. Tom Udall he wouldn't run, and he should probably honor that promise.

Richardson On Move In Iowa

Democratic Presidential candidate Bill Richardson continues to show steady growth, with an Iowa poll putting him at 13 percent of likely caucus participants. When the poll was narrowed to the likeliest caucus voters (those who attended the 2004 caucus, voted in the 2006 primary and say they definitely will attend next year's caucus) Richardson went up to 18 percent, ahead of Barack Obama (at 16%).

There's still a long way to go--seven long months--but so far Richardson is the only candidate on the Democratic side to demonstrate any momentum, gradually moving up from the barely imperceptible 2-3% to now consistently in the double digits.

Barack Obama, meanwhile, cannot afford to come in fourth in Iowa under any circumstances, so look for his campaign to begin some television advertising before long.

Richardson recently went for his pilgrimmage before the editorial board of the Des Moines Register, the largest newspaper in the state, and garnered a nice write-up featuring his good natured sense of humor. See Richardson Packs Jokes, Thick Resume.

If Richardson can finagle himself into a solid third place position in polls in either Iowa or New Hampshire--and especially in both--he can really start to shake up the Democratic race and perhaps show movement in the national polls as well. He's got plenty of time, and there's no need to peak too early.

Richardson On The Upswing

New Mexico Governor and Democratic presidential candidate Bill Richardson continues on the upswing as a result of his good debate performance and stellar fundraising effort.

The most recent New Hampshire poll, from Zogby, has Richardson surging to 10 percent from just 2% a month ago. In his commentary on the poll, John Zogby says: "Of greatest significance is the move of Bill Richardson into double-digits from merely a blip on the screen. He is now a player in all this.”

Gov. Richardson is also on the move in Iowa, jumping to 7% in a Research 2000 poll of likely Iowa caucus attendees.

Clearly, as we predicted a few months ago, Richardson has broken from the lower tier pack and is showing signs of momentum that could propel him into the first tier. For now, his improved poll standing alone will be a story in an otherwise static race, enough to create some buzz and propel him higher.

My Breakfast With Bill

This morning the Curmudgeon had breakfast with Bill Richardson, Governor of New Mexico and serious contender for the Democratic Presidential nomination. It was an intimate group--less than 30--to kick off a big day of Richardson fundraising activities in the area.

For those who missed it, the Curmudgeon recently posted on why Richardson would make a good President.

Our favorable impressions of Governor Bill were reinforced this morning, our first chance to see the candidate in person.

Richardson discussed a wide-range of issues informally, from Iraq to the U.S. Attorneys firings (prominently involving some New Mexico politicos), from energy independence to budget deficits, and much in between.

What impressed us most about Gov. Richardson is the passion with which he talks about the critical need to engage in dialogue, especially with other nations. Richardson served as U.N. Ambassador under President Clinton, spending much of his time in diplomatic discussions with unpopular world leaders, such as the head of North Korea. He was an effective negotiator, and today he pushed hard on the theme that America can't simply ignore leaders and nations it doesn't like.

[The Governor told a revealing story about President Bush, who he ran into at a dinner of the National Governors Conference. After filling the President in on his most recent negotiations with North Korea, which were largely successful, Richardson pressed Bush on the need to engage in dialogue with Iran, Syria and other troublesome states. The President said something like "we don't talk to people we don't like." Richardson replied, "Pretty soon you'll only be talking to the Vatican."]

Richardson also made a similar point about getting things done in New Mexico, where he has been a popular and, by all accounts, effective Governor. One of his favorite tactics, he said, is to assemble a task force of stakeholders who oppose each other on a key issue, forcing them to come together and try to find common ground. The result has often been a better understanding all around, leading to passage of legislation on key issues that otherwise would've been impossible.

The Governor noted, quite correctly, that essentially nothing is getting done in Congress these days on a wide range of major issues, while the states are innovating and moving forward.

The one point we wish he'd made, to tie everything else together, is that his style of negotiating, including confronting his opponents, could be very effective in curing some of the current ills in Congress. One reason Congress has done so poorly of late is that the President shows no interest in engaging with Congressional leaders, on both sides of the aisle, to get things done.

We think the next President needs to be someone who can work with Congress, figuring out how to get legislation passed on the big issues: energy independence, global warming, immigration, health care, tax policy, social security. No matter how good you think an individual candidate's platform, it won't make a hill of beans' difference if he/she can't get it through Congress.

One of our good friends has known Richardson for many years, working with him for part of that time. Our friend reports that Richardson is, indeed, an amazing negotiator, and the best "closer" he has ever seen, having negotiated both with and against Richardson. That's an admirable trait, one we should value in a President, especially after eight years with one who hasn't even tried.

When we endorsed Governor Richardson a few weeks ago, we candidly acknowledged that it would be an uphill battle for him to get the Democratic nomination, but we thought he was well enough positioned. With the Richardson campaign collecting a remarkable $6.5 million in the first quarter, Richardson is even better positioned. He has distanced himself from the other "second tier" candidates--possibly creating his own tier. As the "big three"--Clinton, Obama and Edwards--batter each other, we think Richardson's standing will rise. He certainly has to be viewed as a viable contender.

If you're interested in learning more, helping out, or making a donation, go to: http://www.richardsonforpresident.com/

Bill Richardson For President!

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, who has also served as Secretary of Energy and U.N. Ambassador, is our pick for the Democratic nomination for President.

Before we say why, a few words about the overall field. The Curmudgeon is a moderate progressive Democrat. Polls show that most Democrats are satisfied with the choices they have for the 2008 nomination, whereas many Republicans are unhappy with their choices. We concur--we would be satisfied with and vigourously support any of the major Democratic Party choices for the nomination--Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Gore if he runs. We also wanted former Virginia Governor Mark Warner to run and would have worked our tail off for him, but that didn't happen.

After dispassionately studying the field for the past few months, however, we've concluded that Bill Richardson is the Democrats' best candidate. Here's why:

First, Richardson has broader and more relevant experience than the three Democratic front-runners (Sens. Clinton and Obama and former Sen. Edwards). History has shown that former governors often make good presidents, in part because both are executive positions. Richardson is currently serving in his second term as Governor of New Mexico, but also has headed a major federal agency, the Dept. of Energy. His governmental executive experience far exceeds that of the other candidates.

One of the knocks on governors, however--especially from small states like New Mexico--is their lack of foreign policy experience. That demerit doesn't apply to Richardson, since he served as U.N. Ambassador for two years. (He also has a master's degree from the highly regarded Tufts Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy; worked at the State Department and as a staffer on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee early in his career; and was active on international issues in his 15 years in Congress.) In short, Bill Richardson has the type of sophisticated foreign affairs knowledge and understanding that was notably lacking in a certain recent Governor of Texas who went on to become President and single-handedly destroy America's standing in the world community.

Second, Richardson's resume makes him a natural as a leader on some of the most pressing issues of the coming decade: energy and environment, immigration and restoration of America's international standing. Richardson's background in energy, in particular, puts him in position to articulate a cohesive national energy strategy and to deal with a fractured Congress that largely wants to cater to local energy interests without regard to the national interest.

Third, the New Mexico governor brings a fresh political dimension to the Democratic Party that can only improve the odds of winning what undoubtedly will be a close race in 2008. As governor of a western state, Richardson will have greater appeal to key swing independent voters in the Mountain West, where Democrats have been making gains at the local level. These voters are particularly suspicious of Hillary Clinton, and probably of Obama and Edwards (and Gore) as well. If Democrats can take New Mexico, Colorado and perhaps Arizona and Nevada in 2008, their chances of winning are vastly improved.

Richardson also holds tremendous appeal to Hispanic voters. His mother is Mexican and his father, originally from New England, spent much of his life in Latin America. Richardson was raised in Mexico City until age 13. If Democrats can increase Latino turnout in the 2008 election and swing more of that vote their way they have an excellent chance of carrying Florida and improving their margin in other states. At the same time, Richardson's waspy name and mainstream credentials keep his Hispanic background from scaring off socially conservative independent voters.

(Richardson may have some trouble with Chinese-American voters due to his involvement, while Secretary of Energy, with the Wen Ho Lee scandal. We think he can successfully mend most of those fences, however.)

Despite his broad and sometimes high profile government experience, Richardson is still relatively unknown to most Americans. This is both a blessing and a curse. The blessing is that few voters have any negative image of him, in contrast to Sen. Clinton. The curse, of course, is that even among Democrats, many don't know much about him. With what looks like an increasingly compressed primary schedule, that makes for a very uphill battle for the nomination. On the other hand, if he were to be nominated, he would have plenty of time to let the country at large get to know him before the general election.

Other intangibles favor Richardson as well. He is a good speaker--no one will call him a "rock star" like Obama, and he is not quite as high on the charisma scale, but he generally leaves an audience quite satisfied. At the most recent DNC meeting, at which most of the candidates spoke, many delegates thought Richardson's thoughtful speech was the best.

He's comes across as a political moderate and his personal life appears clean. He's been married for 33 years to his "high school sweetheart"--a nice contrast to Guiliani, McCain and Gingrich. He was also a good athlete, having been scouted as a potential professional baseball player (he decided to go to college, then injured his arm, ending that career). Richardson mingles well with working-class voters and won't make the Kerry-esque mistakes of being photographed wind-surfing, or declining a cheesesteak in Philly.

In the end, Richardson will have greater appeal to independent voters than Clinton, Obama and Edwards (Edwards polls well among independents now; we're not sure that will last since he's articulating the most liberal positions of the major candidates). We believe he would win the general election if nominated, and would become an excellent President, one who would work with and listen to Congressional leaders as well as world leaders, to advance our country's interests.