Leno Should Go

Wow, NBC has really made a mess of its late night schedule, and now no one there is happy.

There's no easy way out of this for the Peacock. However, the right thing to do is to ditch Jay Leno.

Leno is, unfortunately, the primary source of the problem. When NBC decided to move Leno to the 10:00 pm prime time slot, it was not a stupid idea, although it was risky.

Leno's show was supposed to be a comedy hour. When Leno hosted the Tonight Show, we enjoyed it, on those rare nights we could afford to stay up that late. But his show in the 10:00 pm slot was simply NOT FUNNY. Indeed, it was about as lame as could be. We had an inkling of this when NBC was pro-mo'ing the show during the summer--even the ads were lame. Like a movie preview for a comedy, where not even the jokes in the preview are funny. DOA.

We have to assume that it was Leno, not the NBC suits, who managed to screw up his own show.

It was also Leno's refusal, in the first place, to move on as he had agreed five years earlier, that created this whole conundrum in the first place.

So don't penalize Conan, whose own Tonight Show gig was hurt by Leno's poor lead-in. Give Leno the boot. Yes, he'll whine and complain, and probably show up on some other network with a show--but it won't last long, because he's clearly lost his edge and most of his audience. So, NBC, take your medicine, clean house and get on with life as part of Comcast.

Marsden Wins Special Senate Race/GOP Decides To Be Silly

In an important special election yesterday, Democrat Dave Marsden won the state senate seat in the 37th district in Fairfax County, adding to the Democratic majority in the Commonwealth's upper chamber.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post reports today that Virginia Republicans, emboldened by their victories in November, plan to launch an updated version of the 1960's "massive resistance" movement. In the '60's, politicians across the South, trying to out-demagogue each other on race, pursued various measures of "massive resistance" to federal laws dismantling the system of racial segregation that prevailed in states like Virginia.

Now, Virginia Republicans--faced with a gaping $1-2 billion deficit, a transportation crisis, a weak economy and other problems of governance--have decided to . . . introduce a bunch of bills challenging federal authority.

One bill would make it illegal to require people to purchase health insurance; another would "declare" that the feds cannot regulate as interstate commerce any good or service produced or performed entirely in Virginia, and another would take aim at federal regulation of gun transactions in the state.

These are all quite empty symbolic gestures, as they deal with issues that are in the province of the courts--FEDERAL courts.

It's just as well, however. It gives us hope that the GOP, left to its own devices, will quickly give up the gains it made in November by being silly, instead of seriously addressing the Commonwealth's most pressing needs.

The Car of the Future: 2020

Today we're continuing our series on what the future may hold by focusing on the venerable automobile.

By 2020 we should expect some major changes to the family car, which will result in quite a paradigm shift.

One change we can already see coming is the advent of the fully electric car. By 2020 we can expect that the majority of NEW cars will be fully electric as advances in battery, computer and electric motor technology revolutionize this aspect of the auto.

But that's NOT the really big change. After all, the electric car looks and feels pretty much the same as a gasoline powered vehicle, and will be marketed and sold in a similar manner.

What will be truly new will be the robot car. The technology already exists today for a vehicle to drive across the country and on urban roads without a human driver, and it has advanced rapidly in recent years. By roughly 2015 we should be seeing some prototype models of cars capable of driving themselves, and by the end of the decade there should be a few higher end models available for mass purchase.

So what's the big appeal of having a robo-car? Well, over time--in the next decade (the '20's) robo-cars should revolutionize the way we relate to the automobile. Today, there is tremendous waste because people purchase cars for their own use, then have them sit unused for about 90% (or more) of the day.

Suppose, instead, that you belonged to a collective that owned a variety of shapes and sizes of robo-cars (similar to today's car-sharing operations, like Zip-car) that would pick you up at your doorstep when you wanted, and then drop you off at the entrance of wherever you're going, and then go park itself on a remote lot until the next collective member needed it. The result would be fewer vehicles on the roads and less need for buildings to maintain expensive parking facilities. (And for homes to have wasteful 3-car garages.)

Further, you'd be picked up by the type of car you need at the moment. Many American families have a huge SUV for those relatively rare occasions when they go on a family trip, or take a gang of kids to a soccer game. Imagine if your subdivision instead was served by a collective that had a handful of SUV's for when you need them, but otherwise would send you on your work commute in a two-seater (or one-seater for that matter).

The robo-cars would be quite "smart"--they would know where you're going and be sure to be charged with enough juice to make it; they would schedule time to re-charge themselves between assignments, in off-peak driving hours.

Another benefit of robo-cars--down the road, when there are sufficient numbers--would be the ability to take them on restricted highways limited solely to robo-cars, where they could go much faster than human driven cars, because they'd all be communicating with each other and with various traffic signals. Traffic jams could be avoided because the robo's would be able to see much further ahead and adjust speeds accordingly. Indeed, in urban areas, traffic signals might be avoided altogether as robo-cars communicating with each other would adjust speeds to navigate intersections without colliding.

Of course, the biggest benefit of robo-cars is eliminating that nemesis we all face on today's roadways: the OTHER driver, that idiot who is going too fast, or too slow, or not paying attention, or not signalling, or cutting us off, or trying to cut in line. (Of course, we ourselves NEVER do these things--only other drivers.)

And what will humans do while being transported in their robo-cars? Why, they'll be doing the 2020's equivalent of texting (and maybe drinking a beer, to boot).

Inauspicious Beginning To A New Decade

With the advent of a new decade (we'll go with the flow here--technically, the new decade begins next Jan. 1) we thought we'd do a series of posts on what the future will hold.

We'll start today with what's up for this year, which turns out not to be too much, at least if you look at the Wall Street Journal's Top 10 New Gadgets For Home and Away.

January brings us the much vaunted Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, where manufacturers trot out the newest in gadgets. Based on WSJ's sampling of the top 10, we can't get too excited.

None of them is a paradigm mover like the Apple I-phone (much imitated, not yet surpassed) or the Amazon Kindle. Most are, at best, expensive extensions of existing technology. There's an improved digital photo frame. Yawn. A device for the gym to combine your workout stats with your music. along with shouting words of encouragement when it senses you need it. Sorry, but we don't need Coach interacting with our music.

We also have a very expensive flashlight with a battery that will last 20 years. Hmmm. And a portable internet radio device for $350--as if we don't already have enough portable music. And if you're really dying to get internet radio, you can shell out $1200 for a device that will integrate internet radio with your car GPS system--IF you have an i-phone too.

In the computer department, there's a small, netbook looking thingie (the Lenovo Skylight--pictured above) that tries to be a computer and a phone. Maybe this will catch on--it seems to be connected through both wi-fi and 3G networks, so might be useful to those who need full computability all the time everywhere. Chalk it up as a further step down the road to merging of phone, internet, computer and whatever else.

Sony has a touch screen device that you can set up on a counter to keep forever connected to the internet, "displaying the latest online updates for weather, traffic and sports." Have you noticed that there just isn't that much new sports, weather, traffic and stock news through the day?

Kinda cool is a 47-in. flat screen HD-TV that is about one-third of an inch thick. But this is transitional technology. We'll wait for the next holy grail: a 3-D television as thin as paper, that can be rolled up and taken anywhere. (Yes, this will be coming, but it will be a few years.)

In April, Apple--which is known for making cool technological leaps--will introduce a new tablet computer. This might well be worth getting in line for. After using our Kindle for reading, and finding it easy to transport around, we can see the possibility for a tablet that is always connected, has a touch screen, is easily portable and does cool things (kind of a big I-touch).

Soon, we'll do a post about some more interesting things you may well see by the end of the decade, and after that we'll discuss some extraordinary advances predicted to occur before 2040, after reading a book on the potential for a complete transformation of humanity in this century. We'll also do a post on what we'd like to see in a personal robot assistant (it's a lot!)

The Side-Benefit of Crawling Traffic?

In Virginia, traffic deaths reached an historic low in 2009, declining to 750, the least highway fatalities in the Commonwealth since 1966, when records started being kept. While 750 is still too many, it's a big improvement from over 1000 in 2007.

It's also a remarkable figure because the number of drivers and miles driven has obviously increased significantly since 1966!

So why has this happened? A cynic--like us--would say it's because no one in Virginia can now drive fast enough to cause a fatal accident! And, there is some truth in that.

More likely, however, is the improvement in safety design of both cars and highways, and increased seat belt usage. Although innovations such as air bags, anti-lock brakes, reinforced doors, crumple zones and stability and traction control have clearly helped make driving safer, it is still true that the biggest life savers are old-fashioned seat belts.

If you read reports in the local paper of traffic fatalities, you'll often see that the person(s) who died wasn't wearing a safety harness; many times they are ejected from the car. Those wearing seat belts in the same accidents almost always survive.

Virginia is not unique--2008 had the lowest number of traffic deaths nationally since 1961 (still, an appalling 37,261 fatalities), and traffic fatalities per mile travelled (a more accurate statistical measure given increased driving) have steadily declined over the past 40 years.

Interesting, too, that 2009 marked a record low year for homicides across the nation as well.

There's a lot of speculation about the reasons for both declines (i.e., car accidents and homicides), but one we haven't seen is the possibility that medical advances have simply meant that many more people who would have died before are now saved (albeit in a maimed state).

Anyway, 2009 may have been a bad year economically, but at least it was a good year for avoiding sudden, violent death.

Kindle This!

Well, happy new year everyone! After fighting off the snow, indulging in copious holiday treats, dealing with two weeks of having the kids monopolize my computer, and travelling about the region, it's nice to get back into the old routine.

NOT. Getting up at 6:15 a.m. this morning was definitely not fun. Oh well, get used to it.

Anyway, the Curmudgeon did get one new toy over the holidays, a Kindle "e-book" reader from Amazon. A year ago, we would've thought we'd be one of the last to jump aboard the e-reader wagon, but we were wrong. And many of you will have shiny new e-readers before long, too.

Let's face it, books have had a great run, and they'll still be around for a few more years, but it's time to move on.

As a general rule, we really like the Kindle. Even with it's (separately priced) leather case, it has the weight and heft of a medium sized children's paperback book. Yet, it can store hundreds of books. No need to lug around a separate bag of books on a long holiday anymore!

What we like best is the ability to instantly download a book after deciding you want it. The other day we were reading a magazine article, which referenced a book that sounded interesting. After a quick check on the web to make sure it was something we wanted, we purchased it on the Kindle and were reading it 15 minutes later.

This is particularly useful on a trip when you suddenly finish a good book and get that panicked feeling about not having anything else to read.

If you read a lot, the Kindle will pay for itself pretty quickly (at least, if you tend to buy books). Most bestsellers on Kindle are priced at under $10, with many other books selling for less. (You can get Landstrike for $8.99, and quite a few Kindle owners have done just that.) For the Curmudgeon, that means the Kindle should pay for itself in just a few months.

The Kindle is not perfect--it's still an early generation of e-readers of the future. One problem is that it's not easy to navigate around in a non-fiction book where you might want to look at a footnote, table or some other page in an appendix. We also like to jump to the back of a book sometimes just to see how many real pages there are left to read (i.e., excluding footnotes, appendices, etc.), and you just can't do that with the Kindle. For now.

That's mainly because the Kindle is, for now, taking a physical book and tranlating it to an electronic format. In the future, we expect that e-books will be specifically designed for e-readers, with options that make them much more versatile.

A couple other drawbacks: graphics, such as maps, graphs, tables, etc., reproduce poorly on the Kindle. Again, in the future, we'll see big progress on this front. The Kindle is also all black and white, so you don't get much out of photos, but surely color is on the way!

There are some nifty features, however. You can highlight text and make notes, just like on a real book (but without the guilt!).

You can also use the Kindle to read long documents not yet in print. We had a manuscript from a friend, which we'd been slogging through on the computer. But then we learned that we could upload the Word file for it to Amazon, who for a small fee would then download it back to our Kindle in e-book form (you can avoid the fee by taking an extra step and having it sent back to your computer, where you then upload it). Once we'd uploaded the manuscript, it was a cinch to finish reading because we could take it anywhere.

Another nice feature--which we haven't tested yet, however--is the ability to subscribe to various newspapers and magazines (and blogs, but who reads those!) on the Kindle. We can see the benefits, especially when traveling, but the graphical limitations could be more annoying here.

While we expect future versions to have various new features, one of the most appealing aspects of the Kindle is it's simplicity. We were able to get going on it in a matter of minutes, with most of the operations being intuitive. So we hope they don't ruin it by making it everything for everyone. Just give us color and "HD" graphics, and we'll be pretty happy.

So what are you waiting for--go out and get yours, too!

Silly Solution To Virginia's Transportation Woes

On January 12, a handful of Fairfax County voters will go to the polls in a special election to fill the state Senate seat (District 37) vacated by Republican Ken Cucinnelli when he ascended to Attorney General.

The Republican candidate in this special election is Stephen Hunt, who would certainly be an embarassment to Northern Virginia if elected. Hunt served a term on the Fairfax Co. school board, managing to LOSE his race for re-election after making a thorough ass of himself on the Board.

Among other things, Hunt used his position to denounce homosexuality, going so far as to suggest that school principals should make gay students interact with former gays who had renounced their homosexuality. Hunt also gave a speech where he expressed his regrets about giving up his virginity before marriage (but, of course, he did it, didn't he, even though his parents probably gave him the same advice he's giving now).

Anyway, Hunt's latest suggestion--one evidently embraced by other Republicans in the state as well--is that the state's transportation woes can be magically cured by a pot of gold at the end of the offshore oil and gas leasing rainbow.

In other words, don't expect ANYTHING on the transportation front for AT LEAST 10 more years, because that is about the soonest the Commonwealth could expect to see a dime from any such royalties. And those royalties are a big IF.

First, the federal government might not sign off on the proposed leases. Second, the Navy, with its large base at Norfolk--of mighty significance to Va.'s economy--may object, or at least hold things up. Third, we don't know that there IS any significant economically recoverable reserve of oil or gas off the coast of Virginia. If there is, it will be many years before anything starts to flow, hence many years before the state sees any revenue.

[And watch what you wish for; if you've been to beaches on the Gulf Coast--in Louisiana and Texas--you know they can be pretty icky as a result of oil deposits. Just what we need is to ruin Virginia's fine coastal resorts in search of more carbon pollution.]

So, when you hear Virginia Republicans--geniuses like Hunt--say they can solve the transportation crisis without raising taxes, bear in mind that what they really mean is NOT IN OUR LIFETIMES.

Unfortunately, these special elections tend to favor Republicans, so Fairfax may just get a new embarassment in Viriginia's upper chamber.

Arlington Falling Down On Snow Removal

Over the past few years, we were beginning to think that Arlington was getting the hang of decent snow removal. Well, think again!

Above are photos of our street--just four blocks from Arlington's government complex at Courthouse Plaza--a full three days after the storm finished.

It's not for lack of effort--we know that Arlington's road crews have been working 12-hour shifts since the snow began Friday night. Part of the problem, however, is a shortsighted approach to plowing streets during and immediatley after a major storm that then leads to bigger problems down the road.

The basic approach to plowing in Arlington is to create a single lane down the middle of a road, rather than plowing curb to curb. Of course, in many areas it is impossible to plow curb-to-curb because Arlington has no snow emergency regulations that keep cars out of curb lanes. But even where there are now parked cars, the plowing is usually confined to a single lane.

This approach, of course, means that snow is piled up IN THE ROAD on the days after the storm, where it often gets a hard freeze, making later removal much more difficult.

Arlington needs to get serious about snow removal, especially this year. There's an excellent chance that this won't be the last major winter snowstorm of the season--indeed, the Capital Weather Gang blog at the Washington Post had an excellent discussion of the factors that created this blizzard and the likelihood that those conditions will persist for much of the rest of this winter. If that happens, we're going to need a much better response.

Needless to say, there are many cities in the northeastern and midwestern U.S. that are larger and more complex than Arlington, and that are able to deal with snow of this magnitude without closing down for several days.

As for Arlington schools, winter has just begun and they've already eaten up three snow days. It easily could've been more--if the storm had started last Sunday night, instead of on a Friday night, they would have lost an entire week. The schools don't have much of a plan in place either--they could easily assign alternate bus routes that stick to major roads, but they insist on a lowest common denominator approach--if there is one hilly street with ice on it, then it's too dangerous to send the kids to school. A couple more storms like this one and the kids will still be in school come July!

Anyway, it will be nice--we guess--to have a white Christmas. Happy Holidays everyone!!

Imperfect Health Care Bill Is Still Progress

There is little question but that the health care bill about to be passed by Congress is far from perfect. Nonetheless, it is a giant step in the right direction, and will eventually be looked back upon as a significant achievement.

Most human progress occurs incrementally. People are conservative by nature, accepting change in small bites (or, increasingly, bytes). Indeed, it would be impossible to re-make the health care system all at once, and it would be impossible to pass a "perfect" health care bill.

The Democratic party will probably even pay a steep price at the polls in the mid-term elections for the health bill, but it will be worth it as it's the right thing to do.

Over the coming years, Congress will have to tinker further with health care reform as the effects of change and reform become evident and we learn of things that did, or didn't, work out.

As is the case with most legislation that gets this emotional, the opponents of the health bill will soon realize that the roof hasn't caved in--that their health care really hasn't changed that much; likewise, the proponents will discover that many of the changes they had hoped for didn't materialize the way they wanted. But for several million Americans, life will improve significantly as they find themselves with access to adequate medical care. And that's progress.

The Great December Blizzard of 2009

The Curmudgeon home and car, buried in record-breaking DC snowstorm!!

HELP!

We loved this photo, which a friend sent us. Her sister's friend hung a dummy from the roof. She had to take it down after two days for fear of causing a traffic accident and because a few people tried to effect "rescues" (and weren't too happy to learn it was a fake)!

Curmudgeon on Author BUZZ Radio Show

Next week the Curmudgeon will be a guest on Deidre Hughey's Author BUZZ internet radio show, based in Raleigh, NC to discuss Landstrike. The show will run live from 2-3 pm, and the podcast will be available after that. Join us if you can!

Pessimistic About Copenhagen

Today, a vital week of talks begin in Copehagen on the future of the planet. We're not too optimistic, for several reasons.

First, absent dramatic progress in reducing greenhouse emissions, it is probably already too late to stop significant additional warming throughout the rest of this century. The changes necessary to achieve those reductions are likely far greater than the world is willing to agree to.

Second, political support for reigning in carbon emissions has been eroding due to a well-financed campaign to create doubt about the existence and causes of global climate change. The campaign has, of course, been championed by the fossil fuel industry, and lately has been heartily embraced by the political right wing. If the U.S.--the biggest energy hog in the world--doesn't commit to significant changes in its ways, why would anyone else?

Third, the economics of fossil fuels are, unfortunately, such as to make it highly unlikely that the world as a whole will rapidly substitute renewable energy sources. Each time the price of oil and other fossil fuels increases, the incentive to find those resources in less accessible parts of the globe grows. As a result, we are not likely to reach a point of "peak oil"--the point at which overall production begins to decline, anytime soon.

Further, if developed nations reach agreements to limit the use of fossil fuels, that will just make them less expensive (because there will be a greater supply) to the less developed world. As long as there is an abundant supply of inexpensive fossil fuels, it is likely that someone will "cheat" on any accord and continue to use them.

Fourth, as the world population grows, and as the middle class portion of that population grows even faster, the new demand for energy grows at a huge rate. We might be able to satisfy the new demand with renewable sources--although we aren't now--but just keeping up is difficult.

That doesn't mean the world shouldn't try. We're in favor of the Copenhagen meetings and an aggressive plan to reduce emissions. And we're still personally committed to reducing our own carbon footprint, if for no other reason than to tell our grandchildren we tried.

More than likely, however, the world is going to have to get used to the effects of global warming. We doubt they're quite as bad as some alarmists would have us believe (albeit they're trying to effect behavior change, so some alarmism is in order); by the same token, the skeptics who say "no problem" are wrong--there will be significant, adverse changes, many already taking place.

We just hope we don't get so far past the point of no return that the effects really are catastrophic, something we probably wouldn't see until around 2100. Catastrophic would be significant melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps, and attendant other changes.

We suspect that in another 20 years, the skeptics will finally have lost the battle--the trend will be clear, but it may really be too late.

One aside: recently, hackers broke into computers of climate researchers in England and released a large number of emails that skeptics have used to create doubt and confusion about climate science. Based on news reports that other climate researchers have been the subject of computer hacker attempts and outright physical break-ins, there's little doubt that this was part of an orchestrated campaign, probably funded by segments of the fossil fuel industry, to throw mud on the climate science.

Some day, we'll be exposed to the emails from the other side--those seeking to manufacture doubt about the science--and it won't be a pretty sight. It will probably occur in the context of litigation, and perhaps some whistle-blowers, just as it did with the tobacco industry. When that finally happens we'll see who's really manipulating the science--and public opinion.

Seeing Red In Georgia

It's hard to find a redder state than Georgia. (True, Utah is bright red, but Georgia has more rednecks, so it has the upper hand.)

In Georgia, Republicans control the state House and Senate, the governorship, most statewide constitutional offices, both U.S. Senate seats and a majority of the congressional delegation. And these aren't "moderate" Republicans, either--they're mostly from the hard-core social conservative side of the party.

Now Georgia's Republicans are facing yet another sex scandal like those in other states. This time, it's the Speaker of the House, Glenn Richardson (why are so many conservatives named Glenn?), who is resigning in the wake of allegations of a "full-out" affair (his wife's description) with a lobbyist.

Richardson, of course, has been an aggressive "family-values" conservative, so he deserves to fall hard. For some reason, however, he isn't resigning immediately, but rather on Jan. 1. (We think that any politician who vocally espouses "family values" and then gets caught with his or her pants down deserves the media ridicule; in contrast, the frenzy over Tiger Woods is hardly justified.)

Apart from the sex scandal, however, let's look at how Georgia has fared under Republican rule. Surely, with all that freedom, capitalism and patriotism, the state must be doing well relative to less red states.

Well, let's see: Georgia accounts for one out of six bank failures in the U.S. (25 out of 150) in 2008-09. It has the 8th highest new foreclosure rate in the nation. Unemployment was 10.2% there last month, just above the national average. Not exactly a beacon of economic prosperity.

(And Georgia's politicos have been lobbying Washington for additional TARP bailout funds for smaller banks in Georgia--how ironic.)

So much for being "in the Red."

Salacious Salahi

Sorry, but we just can't get enough of Tariq and Michaele Salahi, the White House party crashers.

It seems that Michaele in particular is a Zelig-like figure, appearing with the rich and famous, all who are wondering "who is this brazen blonde, anyway?"

Courtesy of the Washington Post's fine investigative team, we now know this, in addition to the couple's prior fabrications: Michaele showed up--with a television crew in tow, evidently as part of her audition for Bravo's upcoming "Real Housewives of Washington, D.C." series--at a Redskins cheerleader alumni event and even managed to dance (badly, we're told) with them at halftime of a Redskins game. The other cheerleaders all wondered who she was, especially after she couldn't even perform the squad's signature dance for after the 'Skins score a touchdown (a dance not seen too much this season).

Michaele also sent a polo magazine a photo of her with a couple of state beauty pageant queens, indicating that she (Michaele) was, herself, a former Miss America. Of course, there's no such record, unless she meant a former Miss Fraud America.

More stories have emerged of the Salahis penchant for stiffing vendors. One, a company that supplies performers and impersonators for parties, is getting even: they've added a look-alike couple you can hire to "crash your party". (Our bet is that they are a big hit!)

The Salahis have also hired new legal counsel, the NY law firm of Dewey and Lebeouf, to fend off all the lawsuits and other legal entanglements of the faux celebrity couple. We sure hope the lawyers at Dewey got a big upfront retainer, because these are clearly the kind of folks who don't pay their bills!

Sadly, while we still hope Michaele ends up in prison orange, the more likely outcome is that she cashes in with a book deal, TV appearances, a Lifetime movie, and the other tawdry accoutrements of American scandal celebs.

Salahi Sleeze

As the facts trickle out, we're learning a lot more--none of it all too surprising--about Tariq and Michaele Salahi, the so-called White House party crashers.

Based on the emails they've released (which may be selective) they probably didn't quite just brazenly "crash" the party. But they certainly aren't honest, and apparently haven't been for some time.

To say they were "invited" is clearly incorrect. It's quite apparent that the Salahis crave publicity and attention, and desperately wanted into President Obama's first state dinner. Hey, they don't call them "Desperate Housewives" for nothing!

The Salahis sought access through a connection they made with a Pentagon staffer--who evidently had a connection with the Salahis lawyer. After a day of frantic emailing, the staffer left Michaele a phone message saying she was unsuccessful. The Salahis say they didn't get the message, but their credibility on such matters is highly suspect. (They decided just to "drop by" the White House to see if they had made the guest list, as if it was a neighbor's glitzy holiday party.)

So what was this all about, anyway? Just like the "balloon boy" stunt in Arizona, this was all about getting on unreality television. Michaele has been auditioning for Bravo Network's upcoming series, the Desperate Housewives of Washington, D.C. What better way to burnish her credentials than to get into Obama's first state dinner.

Unfortunately for Michaele, the harsh glare of the media spotlight is now revealing a woman whose whole lifestyle is based largely on deception. The Salahis apparently need a high profile lawyer because they've had quite a history of stiffing people. Today's Washington Post has a juicy piece detailing hundreds of thousands of dollars in unpaid claims the Salahis have left in the wake of their celebrity polo "charity" event, which, of course, is much more about them than about any charitable undertaking. Other reports have the Salahis being escorted out of a recent Congressional Black Caucus dinner because they weren't invited to that one either (guess they just dropped by).

The best one we heard, on the radio the other morning (granted, radio is about the most unreliable source of anything factual) was that after spending seven hours in the beauty salon getting ready for her shot at White House stardom, Michaele walked out without so much as a tip for anyone at the salon. Now that's how to treat the little people!

For its part, Bravo will probably drop Michaele from its Housewives series. But it SHOULDN'T do so. There is nothing more Washington, D.C. than someone getting caught up in a scandal, and then running around with lawyers and publicists trying to "manage" the story. So here's Bravo's chance to follow the action in a "real-life" (but kind of make-believe) situation of the sort that has made Washington famous. If only the story would end up with Michaele in standard issue orange prison garb, to give viewers the happy ending we so desperately crave.

How Any Douchebag Can Get A Gun, No Questions Asked

Here's a pretty shocking video from the Brady Campaign To Prevent Gun Violence, which was put together by one of the survivors of the Virginia Tech massacre. He shows you how easy it is for any douchebag in the world to legally purchase a gun--for example, an assault rifle--for cash, with no background check and "no paperwork," at one of the hundreds of gun shows that tour around the country every year.

Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin would be proud!!

Breathing Easy!

Hooray--as of today, Virginia's restaurants are smoke-free!

See The Blind Side

If you haven't seen "The Blind Side," yet, go see it! Blind is the true story (not "based on a true story" or "inspired by a true story") of how NFL pro football player Michael Oher--a very large black man who plays tackle for the Baltimore Ravens--was adopted, for practical purposes, by a wealthy white family in Memphis while he was in high school and living on the streets in a housing project. (That's Michael and his real-life adoptive parents to the right.)

The Curmudgeon got dragged to the movie by the rest of the family over the holiday weekend and is glad of it. It's a terrific story. Sandra Bullock is great as Leigh Ann Tuohy, the real-life petite, blonde, strong-willed mother who took in Michael as a boy and helped nurture him to success.

It's a good movie to drag the kids to as well. Our 14-year-old even conceded that he liked the flick!

The Post Goes Rogue

It's no wonder newspapers are going down the toilet. The Washington Post is covering Sarah Palin's "rogue" book tour like it was the New Hampshire primary, with stories--sometimes multiple--every day.

Dear Post: please get this straight. Book tours are for the purpose of selling books and making money. If Ms. Palin wants coverage in your rag for her book, she (or her publisher--also going down the toilet) should PAY YOU in the form of taking out an ad.

There's nothing newsworthy about her book tour, unless you're also going to include articles about every speech and public appearance made by Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich and the half dozen or so other potential GOP candidates for Prez in 2012.

Please, give it a rest. Who cares if a line of brain-dead Palin adorers lined up at Ft. Bragg--or anywhere else--to have her sign their books. Give us a Palin-free newspaper, at least for a few weeks, and stop promoting her book for her.

Manufacturing Doubt on Global Climate Change

Dr. Jeff Masters, at Weather Underground, has a terrific--if lengthy--piece comparing today's global warming deniers (or "skeptics") to the "scientists" funded by yesteryear's tobacco industry to contest the causal connection between smoking and disease. It's worth a read on a slow day before Thanksgiving:

The Manufactured Doubt Industry

California To Set Television Energy Standard

A few days ago, the California Energy Commission voted to set standards for electricity consumption by large, flat screen televisions. (See HERE.)

The Consumer Electronics Association, which represents television manufacturers, predictably attacked the decision, saying the industry could regulate itself.

Of course, the industry hasn't done so. Thank goodness California is stepping in.

We purchased our nice big flat screen about a year ago. We love the crisp, clear hi-def images, but we're not too keen on the power usage. Since purchasing our new television, our power bill has increased by about 10%. There's no question that our wonderful new television is using electrons like crazy.

Not surprisingly, as more and more households make the switch to more and more of these energy hogs, our efforts to curb carbon emissions, reduce oil imports from politically hostile or unstable regimes, and avoid construction of new power plants are thwarted.

The California standards are likely to be followed for televisions manufactured for sale throughout the U.S., so they will effectively set a national standard.

As for the CEA--well, you've had several years to do something and you didn't. And wouldn't. We're glad someone's stepping up.

Soccer Championships Should Be Decided By Playing Soccer, Not Kicking PK's

If the barons of Major League Soccer want to know why the game isn't more popular in the U.S., all they have to do is look at how the MLS championship was decided yesterday.

After a full season of games and play-offs, the two contenders--Los Angeles Galaxy and Real Salt Lake--battled to a 1-1 tie in regulation. They were still tied after another 30 minutes of extra time. So, rather than continue playing SOCCER until a winner emerged, the entire season came down to a round of penalty kicks.

It would be like deciding the World Series with a home-run derby; the NBA championship with a 3-pt contest; or the Superbowl with a series of ever longer alternating field goal kicks.

Penalty kicks are not soccer. They don't even require all that much skill. Some people think it's a "dramatic" way to finish games (Real Salt Lake made the championship game by winning it's division in yet another PK finish), but if that's so, why not just create a game based around shooting PK's?

The problem, of course, is that modern soccer has evolved into a defensive struggle in which teams seldom dare to take chances in order to score. A ridiculous number of games end in 0-0 and 1-1 ties, and the concept of "sudden death" overtime has never caught on.

Because the game is difficult to resolve within the game format, modern soccer has devolved into PK contests that demean the sport.

MLS should ban the PK as a means of deciding games that require a decision. Such games should be decided on the field, in a sudden death format, with no limit on the time to be played until the game is finished. Those games will have dramatic finishes, you can be sure.

Fun At The Miami Book Fair

We had a great time at the Miami Book Fair International this past weekend. The photo is of our Landstrike booth in the heart of the street fair--a four block area of downtown closed off for nothing but books!

Vendors who'd been there many years said the crowds were down this year. That may be so, but there were plenty of people strolling through, especially Saturday afternoon. And why not--we had three straight days of outstanding weather--sunny, blue sky, low humidity, temps in the upper 70's, low 80's.

We learned a little about Landstrike too. Turns out it's a big hit with teen boys, some of whom evidently were in disaster mode due to the release of the mega-disaster movie "2012." We had plenty of interest from all ages, races, creeds and sexes, but the teen boys were drawn to our booth like flies to honey.

Our favorite was a sixth grade Latino boy who dragged his mom all the way back from the fair exit, as they were leaving, so he could purchase the book. When it turned out mom didn't have any cash--and so had to call dad to come over as well--the boy started reading the book while waiting. By the time the transaction was done, he was well into chapter one and looked like he'd be reading it every step of the way as his family left the fair.

We were pleased to see so many boys interested because it's a difficult group to get to read anything!

So, if you've got a teen boy on your holiday gift list, and he's a reader of action-adventure books, consider Landstrike (the paperback is available on Amazon.com and BN.com for about $15).

[We also found that quite a few adults preferred to download the book to their Kindle readers--they took our card, and sure enough we had a nice little spike in Kindle downloads over the weekend.]

Overall, we enjoyed the fair. Our neighbors, all selling their books, were a terrific group, and helped each other out when they could.

One downer, however, was the five Author Solutions ("ASs") booths around the corner from us. Author Solutions is the parent for a group of self-publishing companies, including our publisher, Xlibris. As we discussed in a prior post, Xlibris (and other ASs companies) pushed some of their authors into ridiculous packages, costing $4000-$10,000, in which they were required to purchase a couple hundred books and then give them away at the fair.

Not only were these packages huge rip-offs for the authors, but they pissed off just about every other legitimate seller at the fair. Many fairgoers suddenly thought they were going to get free books from everyone! Unfortunately, for the most part you got what you paid for at the ASs booths--we picked up some of the free books, and while a couple were not too bad, several were completely unreadable.

If the Miami Book Fair is going to attract quality exhibitors in the future, it will need to make a choice: ban ASs's free book scam that rips off unsuspecting authors, or turn the whole thing into a freebie fest and just forget about the fair's reputation.

Montgomery Co. Gets Smart

Turns out there is some good news out there. Montgomery County has adopted a plan to encourage denser "car-free" growth along it's mass transit corridors, reversing a long-standing policy that has contributed to sprawl and intensified traffic problems there.

As the Washington Post explained in its story on the matter: "Most suburban growth plans--including Montgomery's, until Tuesday--discourage development in congested areas, including those near public transit, and encourage construction in more sparsely populated communities, on the theory that new developments should arise where traffic is still tolerable."

Anyone who's lived in the Washington, D.C. metro area for the past 25 years can tell you how poorly that theory has turned out. Washington is a sprawling city, with developments stretching in all directions over a radius of at least 30 miles. Traffic is worse than ever, with little prospect of improving, and open farmland and forest around the city has all but disappeared.

Arlington County, which has the advantage of being small and having NO large open space to speak of, has pioneered smarter development of denser projects near mass transit hubs. We can't say it's exactly "car-free" over here, but Arlington has grown, and continues to grow, more smartly.

When we moved to the Washington area in 1980, Montgomery County--and Fairfax, too--had quite a bit of open farmland. Now the largest crop in both those counties is townhomes. Much of the development in both those counties has been done in a way that they feed into major highways, without creating the necessary connections for local residents on short trips to by-pass those thorofares, thereby contributing to congestion.

It's interesting to visit Europe, where many cities and towns have very strict zoning regulations that prevent sprawl and preserve the countryside. Those towns and cities seem to end abruptly, unlike American cities, which seem to go on forever, gradually diminishing to smaller developments that sooner or later get absorbed by larger ones. If Europe had American style development laws, there'd be no countryside left.

Montgomery's decision is a good step in the right direction. Washington's outer rim of counties need to consider some similar steps to rein in unmitigated sprawl.

Off To Miami

With the off-year elections over (and depressing), with the days getting shorter, and the weather getting crappy, we haven't been inspired to write much of late.

This weekend, however, we'll be in warm, sunny Miami, promoting our book Landstrike at the Miami Book Fair International.

We'll have a full report when we return, or maybe while we're there. If you're in South Florida, come see us!

Wish we could also report on one or two golf courses down that way, but we'll be working all weekend. Maybe next trip!

Thank You Indeed!

Now GOP Has To Solve Intractable Problems

Republicans in Virginia cruised to a big victory last night after a decade long losing streak. It was a bad night for Democrats, erasing several years of hard fought gains in the House of Delegates and giving Republicans control of the coming reapportionment process.

While part of the blame goes to Creigh Deeds for running a poor campaign, there is plenty of blame to go around. First, history was never on the Democrats' side this time around: not since 1973 has the party in power in the Presidency won the Virginia governor's mansion. Still, that's not enough to explain a landslide 59-41% drubbing.

"Governor" Tim Kaine--who's real job of late has been DNC chairman--can take part of the blame. Democrats have held the governor's mansion for the past 8 years, yet Virginia's main problems have been pretty much the same, especially for the past 4 years. True, those problems are largely in the domain of the legislature, but try telling that to voters.

Another factor is exhaustion after the Obama victory in Virginia. Democrats worked hard for Obama to carry Virginia and give it two Democratic senators and a majority Democratic delegation to the U.S. Congress. With George Bush gone, there just wasn't the enthusiasm among Democratic voters this time around, as reflected by turnout. Meanwhile, conservatives who were lukeward to John McCain last year are now energized, while McDonnell & Co. managed to avoid the kind of divisive campaigns that their predecessors have waged (i.e., appealing to hard core conservatives at the expense of moderate independents).

Nonetheless, Deeds was a big factor, as evidenced by his loss even of Democratic leaning Fairfax County. It was clear throughout the campaign that Deeds had no real understanding of Northern Virginia. He lacked the sophistication of a Mark Warner, or Jim Webb, or Tim Kaine, whereas McDonnell, for all his truly conservative views, still projected that sophistication.

You can blame Terry McAuliffe in part for this. Had he not jumped into the race (and yes, we did support him in the primary, although we always had big reservations) Brian Moran would have won and done much better in NoVa (probably preventing the loss of at least three legislative seats).

There is a silver lining in all this, however. With their sweep of statewide offices and their large majority in the House of Delegates, Republicans now have to prove they can govern. It won't be easy. Their party is still badly divided between myopic small-county cultural conservatives who could give a damn about Northern Virginia's growth problems, and more practically minded pols who realize they have to solve problems if they want to continue in office.

With the far right punishing anyone who even thinks about raising taxes, McDonnell will find his options severely limited. The logical way to fund transportation improvements is to raise gasoline taxes. Those taxes are low in Virginia and have not kept up with the inflation of gas prices. McDonnell says he has a plan to improve roads without raising taxes, but his plan won't work. The bottom line is that it takes revenue to build roads.

Apart from transportation, the Commonwealth faces a dire budget situation that will be painful to resolve. Although an improving economy nationwide will help, McDonnell will again face tough choices with very limited options.

Finally, the culture warriors on the right will no doubt push McDonnell, Cuccinelli and their brethren in the general assembly to enact unpopular laws that will reignite the left.

Unfortunately, Democrats are still faced with the nasty prospect that McDonnell and his cronies will control the upcoming reapportionment process, which will make all that more difficult for Democrats to gain legislative seats in the coming decade.

Democrats now need to find some new leadership at the statewide level. We hope that out of chaos, strong new leaders will emerge!

Terrible Night For Dems In Virginia

Pretty disastrous night for the Democratic Party in Virginia, although it doesn't look like the GOP will pick up as many House of Delegate seats as they might have. More a reflection on the top of the ticket.

Tomorrow: we'll analyze the silver lining in this election.

NFL Should Boost Prostate Cancer Research And Awareness

Now that October's over, we miss all those splotches of pink in NFL football broadcasts.

You see, October is breast cancer awareness month. Pink, of course, is the breast cancer ribbon color, and those breast cancer folks really know how to do up publicity. They had NFL players wearing pink shoes, hats, ribbons, patches; they had refs wearing pink stripes, looking just like the candy-stripers of yore at hospitals. They even had the White House adorned with a huge pink ribbon.

You'd think breast cancer was the only one with a month, ribbon and color. But it's not. It's just that the other cancers haven't caught up in the market for attention.

Now we have nothing against raising awareness of and research on breast cancer. But we think the NFL's priority on pink was a bit misplaced.

You wouldn't know it, but September--also a big month for professional football--was prostate cancer awareness month. Prostate cancer has a ribbon, too--it's sky blue.

You'd think pro football would get on the prostate cancer bandwagon AT LEAST as much as for breast cancer. After all, the NFL is, quite literally, sponsored in large part by the penis. Viagra and Cialis ads compete for attention for men with "erectile dysfunction," which can be caused or contributed to by prostate problems. Then there's all the ads for Flomax, for men who have trouble peeing because of a benign enlarged prostate.

Not to mention that the audience for pro football is just a little skewed toward MEN, and all the players are men.

Prostate cancer is pretty deadly, killing an estimated 28,000 men each year (breast cancer deaths among women are higher, at about 45,000).

So where was all the sky blue and prostate cancer awareness in the NFL in September? There wasn't any (unless you're a Carolina Panthers fan, whose colors include sky blue).

Pink in October is fine. But if the NFL is going to promote breast cancer awareness, it ought to at least put prostate cancer on the same footing!

Xlibris's Shameful Miami Book Fair Promotion

The Curmudgeon will soon be in Miami (Nov. 13-15) to promote his novel, Landstrike, at the Miami Book Fair International. The Miami fair is one of the largest in the world, so it will be a great opportunity to meet readers, not to mention bookstore owners, publishers and the rest of the industry.




We'll have a half-booth all to ourselves at the fair. The cost for the booth is modest--less than $500--plus we'll invest in a few marketing materials to liven the place up.



Pity, then, the poor self-published authors who are shelling out between $4000 and $10,000 to Xlibris Press (with whom we self-published) for the opportunity to "optimize" their book's "exposure to the multi-ethnic community of Miami." The gory details are HERE.

This has got to be the biggest rip-off in the self-publishing industry, and book fair officials aren't too happy about it either.

Xlibris, which can get an entire booth for $650, is charging an outrageous sum to self-published authors who simply don't know better. Our experience with Xlibris is that it is a lot better at promoting itself than promoting its authors.



For $10,000, an Xlibris author will get the privilege of a 2-hour book signing slot at the Xlibris booth. (The Curmudgeon will get three whole days at his little booth.)



For that $10,000, the Xlibris author will have to give away his/her books. They're not allowed to sign them. Fortunately, 150 paperback books come with the package--but those books would cost the author $1500, and cost Xlibris even less. And the author could sell them--for a profit--if he had his own booth, instead of giving them away at the Xlibris booth.



The rest of the package isn't worth much. There's an email marketing campaign that Xlibris normally charges $599 for--and that's pretty inflated as it is (and largely worthless). Xlibris also promises a few bookmarks and posters, as well as an "author video" and press releases before and after the event. None of that is worth much.



For about $3000, the author could easily get his/her own booth, print up some very nice posters and other handouts, shoot a video and then sell his/her books at a profit to offset those costs. The author would still have plenty of money to fly down to Miami and stay in a very nice hotel.



Of course, for Xlibris, this is the deal of the century. They're making several grand on each author they can dupe into signing up for this boondoggle. Maybe they should change their motto to "Xlibris: YOU Write OUR Own Success!"

Arlington's Stance on I-66 Is Killing Democrats

One issue that's killing Democrats in Virginia is Arlington's steadfast opposition to widening I-66.

Because Arlington is a Democratic stronghold, statewide candidates who want to court Arlington voters are required to adhere to the I-66 orthodoxy here. That, in turn, hurts them in the larger--and Democratic leaning--counties outside the beltway (Fairfax, Prince William and Loudoun). Folks in those counties want better roads, and none is more inadequate than I-66.

Our friend Ben at NLS recently posted his reasoning on why widening I-66 would do no good (it's in the context of a rebuttal to the Washington Post's inexplicable endorsement of Arlington delegate Bob Brink's Republican opponent).

We disagree. Ben's reasoning is that putting more people on I-66 will just add to congestion in Tyson's Corner. That ignores the two fundamental bottlenecks on I-66.

Heading westbound, traffic gets jammed where the double lane Glebe Road on-ramp meets double-lane I-66. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that having a two-lane on-ramp merge into two lanes of interstate highway will quickly jam things up. Adding an additional lane from Glebe Rd. to the Dulles Access Rd. (267) would greatly ameliorate the daily traffic tie-up on I-66 in Arlington. The sad thing is that Arlington's elected officials oppose this fix, even though it is mostly people living and working in ARLINGTON (those getting on at Glebe Rd.) who are hurt by the current abysmal design.

On the eastbound side, there is a similar problem, where the Sycamore Street ramp meets I-66. Too much traffic is coming in from this ramp, causing traffic to slow to a crawl. A little over a mile later, much of that traffic gets off at Glebe Rd. (again proving that much of I-66 traffic is people living and working in Arlington, not just pass-through traffic from the outer suburbs). After Glebe Rd. the traffic clears up. An easy solution to this problem is to extend the ramp from Sycamore St. all the way to the Glebe exit ramp.

These fixes won't solve all of I-66's problems, but they would at least resolve most of the particularly aggravating traffic jams that occur outside of rush hours or against rush hour traffic.

Arlington officials are doing no good for the majority of Arlingtonians by opposing these fixes. While we intend to vote for Bob Brink--because we don't think he's really part of that problem--we do think the Post has a point: it may take getting rid of a few Arlington Democrats to save the rest of Northern Virginia's Democrats, and to bring some sanity to the transportation issue.

Grim Time For Deeds and Dems

A final spate of polls is out in advance of next week's election here in the Commonwealth and there's nothing but bad news for Creigh Deeds and Democrats, as Bob McDonnell has a double-digit lead heading down the stretch.

Here's the data:

Survey USA:
McDonnell 58%
Deeds 41%

Public Policy Polling:
McDonnell 55%
Deeds 40%

Washington Post:
McDonnell 55%
Deeds 44%

There was on tidbit in the polls that we thought was quite interesting--and telling. Survey USA broke out voters who had already voted. The percentage was small--8% of the sample said they'd already voted (presumably via absentee ballot).

Of those, a significant number split their votes. McDonnell leads among early voters by 52%-45%, close to his overall poll numbers. But for Democrats Jody Wagner (Lt. Gov.) and Steve Shannon (Attorney General) the numbers were flipped: both lead their opponents among early voters, Wagner by 53%-44% and Shannon by 56%-44%.

Although none of the polls show Wagner or Shannon beating their opponents, we'll hold out some hope that ticket splitting will give one or both of them a chance to eke out a win.

The biggest problem appears to be turnout, however. Democrats simply have no enthusiasm for Deeds, so many say they don't intend to vote.

This is a tragedy for the entire Democratic ticket, including legislative seats. It looks like the Deeds drag is going to wipe out several years of steady Democratic gains in Virginia, with losses likely in the House of Delegates.

All of which is really too bad for Northern Virginians, who will continue to suffer from lack of transportation funds at the hands of skinflint Republicans, and who will see little progress on other fronts as well.

We'll close with this plea: if you're a Democrat, or an independent, and not enthused about Deeds, please, still go out and vote. You can still make a difference in the other statewide and local races, even if you don't vote for Deeds.

No Subsidy For New News Reporting

Today's Washington Post devotes a large story and a central op-ed piece to a proposal to have the federal government, via the FCC, subsidize a "new model for news reporting."

Sorry, bad idea. Really bad idea.

The reason the Post is giving so much press to this is that former Post Executive Editor Len Downie is one of the figures behind the effort.

Downie argues that the type of journalism that "holds accountable those with power and influence" is now "at risk" due to the decline of the profitable daily newspaper. Accordingly, "American society must now take some collective responsibility for supporting news reporting--as society has, at much greater expense, for public education, health care, scientific advancement, and cultural preservation, through varying combinations of philanthropy, subsidy and government policy."

One problem with the argument is that the news industry is already re-inventing itself quite nicely WITHOUT any government subsidy. That's the word from a report authored by Downie and other journalism professors, and featured in the Post's news story today.

Another problem is that the report in any event appears to focus primarily on print media. It is certainly true that traditional print media is in big trouble financially. But the news media in the U.S. is a little bigger than traditional daily newspapers. It includes television and the internet, which have steadily supplanted newspapers and magazines as the primary sources of Americans' "news."

If anything, it appears we are suffering not from too little news, but too much. Just witness how a family in Colorado allegedly manipulated and duped the entire nation's media over the "balloon boy" incident last week. (Even if the story wasn't a hoax, it wasn't really a story in the end.)

We think there's a vital role for newspapers to play, and Downie and company outline a number of steps that would be useful in supporting that role, including encouraging more non-profit news organizations and supporting print media via philanthropies and universities.

What we don't agree with, however, are two proposals. One is to "reform" public radio and television to be more oriented to local news. Why do we need that? In Washington, we have four private local news stations on the air, some of which have several hours per day of "local" "news" (mostly puff pieces). We also have a cable oriented 24-hour per day local news station, along with local cable weather. We're saturated with local "news" already, much of it irrelevant. Why should taxpayers pay for a "public" incarnation of the same?

A better "reform" of public radio and television would be to finish the conversion of them to what they primarily are now: non-profit organizations, relying on viewer/listener contributions to support themselves. There's no need for a continued government subsidy. Indeed, many programs on public radio and television could easily support themselves on advertising, probably using no more air time than they do now for their periodic fund appeals.

The other proposal, which is far worse, is creation of a "national fund for Local News" from "fees the Federal Communications Commission collects from or could impose on telecom users, broadcast licensees or Internet service providers." The resulting fund would issue grants to "local new organizations for innovations in local news reporting and ways to support it."

This, of course, would be a terrific source of funds for journalism professors such as Downie, but other than that it's hard to see any benefit. Local print media can and will re-invent itself--indeed is re-inventing itself now--without such a fund.

More importantly, we're wary of getting the government involved in the news gathering business. Nothing good ever comes of that, even in the most well-intentioned democracy. As Downie points out, one of the major responsibilities of local news organizations is to hold government accountable. Hard to do when the government is holding the purse strings.

We hope that locals news does successfully re-invent itself. We think it will. Just like politics, we think all news is, fundamentally, local, and there will always be a demand for such. Just keep the government out of it. Please.

Raise The Threat Level

The sillier our media get, the more ill at ease we are that something really bad is about to happen.

On that basis, we should raise the threat level.

Yesterday, and today, the media went crazy over a total non-story. For awhile, everyone thought a 5-year-old kid, aptly named Falcon, was up in a crazy helium balloon. Turned out, he was taking a nap in the attic of his home. About as thrilling as "police arrest wrong man, then promptly let him go." No news.

Now, in the old days of once a day 7:00 pm news, this story would've been over before it had time to get reported. We never would've even heard about it--appropriately.

But now, having mistakenly gone crazy over the story yesterday, the media can't let it go.

Meanwhile, we get the distinct impression it was all a publicity stunt by the family, which, it turns out, has a healthy history of self-promotion.

Can we get back to the real news.

Jody Wagner for Lt. Gov.

As we just posted, it looks like Bob McDonnell is going to capture the governor's mansion.

We hope independent minded voters will take a hard look at the Lt. Governor's race, however. Virginians are famous for splitting their tickets in statewide races. While the Lt. Gov's race hasn't gotten all that much attention, the dynamics between Democrat Jody Wagner and Republican Bill Bolling are much different than in the governor's race.

Although Bolling has been Lt. Governor for the past four years, many Virginians have no idea who he is. He hasn't made much of a mark. He didn't challenge McDonnell for the GOP nomination as governor, and that tells you a lot. Really, who in their right mind wants to run for RE-ELECTION as Lt. Governor? That tells you a lot about Bolling right there.

Whatever you think of McDonnell's political and social views, he is charismatic. Bolling isn't. And he's just as conservative--maybe more so--than McDonnell.

In contrast, Jody Wagner is a dynamic candidate, with much more personality than Deeds. She has demonstrated her service to the Commonwealth as state treasurer under governor Warner, and Secretary of Finance under governor Kaine. These are low profile, but very important, administrative posts, which Wagner has filled in a non-partisan professional manner.

The interesting thing when you hear Jody speak, or talk with her, is that you don't get a sense that's she particularly ideological. She's most comfortable talking about the nuts and bolts of government. That's good. Although the Lt. Gov. job is largely ceremonial, it should be a stepping stone for nomination to run for governor, and Wagner would be a good one.

We hope she won't be lost in Deeds' shadow, or tarred for his campaign's lapses. Independent voters gave Tim Kaine a lackluster GOP Lt. Gov. If we have to have McDonnell as governor, let's at least pair him with a dynamic Democratic Lt. Gov. in Jody Wagner.

Deeds Making No Headway

For awhile, it looked like Creigh Deeds had some momentum as voters acquainted themselves with the real Bob McDonnell via his thesis.

But that momentum appears to have evaporated. A spate of recent polls show Deeds stalled about 6-9 percentage points behind McDonnell, who's done a good job of ignoring the jabs, and successfully tagged Deeds for "going negative" in the campaign. Virginia independents have shown a clear penchant in recent years to punish the candidate who goes most negative, so it looks like some of Deeds' recent work is backfiring.

An interesting contrast to Virginia is New Jersey, where incumbent Democratic governor Jon Corzine has steadily closed what had been a huge gap against his challenger, Republican Christopher Christie. The charts below, from Pollster.com, tell the story pretty well:





We said all along that Deeds was going to have to do more than just paint McDonnell as the super-conservative that he is. So far, Deeds hasn't managed to convince some Democrats, and many independents, that there are good reasons to vote FOR him.

Barring some major development in the next couple weeks, it looks like the Governor's mansion in Virginia will switch parties.

It's too bad--we thought all along that both Brian Moran and Terry McAuliffe were more attractive candidates than Deeds. Unfortunately, they beat the crap out of each other in the Democratic primary, making way for Deeds. We hope something will change in the final days of the campaign, but we're not too optimistic.

Smoke From The Health Care Lobby

Someone should put up a "no smoking" sign in front of the health care lobby.

In a last ditch effort to scare Americans from health insurance reform, they've released a "study" purporting to show that universal healthcare will increase premiums for private insurance by $4000, on average, over what they would have been.

Talk about blowing smoke. We got a notice TODAY--note that health reform is not law, yet--telling us that our nanny's health insurance with Blue Cross is going up $100 a month. That's a 27% increase in ONE YEAR. And nothing's changed about her health over the past year or two.

We got news for you. Health insurance premiums are going up no matter what.

We're fortunate that we can afford this outrageous increase for her. But if our nanny was on her own, there's no way she could fork over an additional $1200 in one year. She'd be just another of the tens of millions of Americans literally forced off the rolls of healthcare insurance and required to fend for herself.

Facebook: To Friend or Not To Friend

The other day, we had dinner with one of our "real" friends, who also happens to be a Facebook friend. We got into a discussion about the do's and don't's of "friending."

It is quite a minefield. For example, what about friending your children? Some children don't want their parents friending them, as it makes them feel like they're being spied on. Others don't mind--but please, please don't try to act like a real friend by making comments, etc. on their FB pages! All that does is expose them to ridicule from their adolescent FB friends.

(The Curmudgeon's children have allowed us "in"--we try to be respectful. We can't understand most of the lingo in the comments on their pages anyway.)

Clear taboo: don't friend friends of your children. They'll think it's creepy, and maybe it is.

Other categories get even dicier. Our friend--the real one--is a senior faculty member at a medical university, and he also treats patients. He's gotten friend requests from both students and patients, both of which make him uncomfortable. We agreed that patients are a pretty clear no-no. Students are a closer question--probably depends on what you feel comfortable with. At a minimun, he shouldn't initiate either form of such contact!

What about co-workers? Co-workers fall into all kinds of different categories, the most awkward of which are those you directly supervise. Can you be "friends"? Again, probably depends on what you're comfortable with. (Since the Curmudgeon no longer has co-workers, it's a purely theoretical issue for us; but, we probably would've been ok with FB friending co-workers in the past.)

Of course, there's old boy and girlfriends. But if you can't friend them on FB, then what's the fun? Just make sure you keep them as FB friends only.

Our general rule is that we'll accept a friend request from anyone we actually know. Sometimes it's someone we've met fairly recently, but that's an opportunity to test out a potential new "real" friendship.

We have gotten friend requests--on the rare occasion--from people we don't know. We generally turn those down, unless we can find some valid connection. Sometimes, it's just a case of mistaken identity. Other times, who knows--FB is a friendly place, but there are always a few bad apples out there, FB stalkers.

You can also--with some time and trouble--work out your FB privacy settings to give some friends more access than others. We kind of wish there was a way to subcategorize (maybe there is, for all we know) your FB friends. Like "true friends," "family," "acquaintances," "co-workers," and other.

With a little effort, we've gotten most of our family to join FB, and it's proven a good way to keep up with each other, share photos and exchange information. Still, there are times when we wonder--what does mom think about all this!

McDonnell Should Apologize

At a recent McDonnell rally, one of his supporters, Sheila Johnson, mocked Creigh Deeds by imitating his mild stutter while addressing the McDonnell faithful.

Courtesy of Not Larry Sabato, the video is now widely available:


So far, the McDonnell campaign has refused to apologize. They should.

And Sheila Johnson especially should apologize. An African-American, Johnson is worth several hundred million dollars as the co-founder of the Black Entertainment Network and other business enterprises. She should know better. Imagine if a prominent Deeds supporter had mocked her heritage!!