Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Grim Time For Deeds and Dems

A final spate of polls is out in advance of next week's election here in the Commonwealth and there's nothing but bad news for Creigh Deeds and Democrats, as Bob McDonnell has a double-digit lead heading down the stretch.

Here's the data:

Survey USA:
McDonnell 58%
Deeds 41%

Public Policy Polling:
McDonnell 55%
Deeds 40%

Washington Post:
McDonnell 55%
Deeds 44%

There was on tidbit in the polls that we thought was quite interesting--and telling. Survey USA broke out voters who had already voted. The percentage was small--8% of the sample said they'd already voted (presumably via absentee ballot).

Of those, a significant number split their votes. McDonnell leads among early voters by 52%-45%, close to his overall poll numbers. But for Democrats Jody Wagner (Lt. Gov.) and Steve Shannon (Attorney General) the numbers were flipped: both lead their opponents among early voters, Wagner by 53%-44% and Shannon by 56%-44%.

Although none of the polls show Wagner or Shannon beating their opponents, we'll hold out some hope that ticket splitting will give one or both of them a chance to eke out a win.

The biggest problem appears to be turnout, however. Democrats simply have no enthusiasm for Deeds, so many say they don't intend to vote.

This is a tragedy for the entire Democratic ticket, including legislative seats. It looks like the Deeds drag is going to wipe out several years of steady Democratic gains in Virginia, with losses likely in the House of Delegates.

All of which is really too bad for Northern Virginians, who will continue to suffer from lack of transportation funds at the hands of skinflint Republicans, and who will see little progress on other fronts as well.

We'll close with this plea: if you're a Democrat, or an independent, and not enthused about Deeds, please, still go out and vote. You can still make a difference in the other statewide and local races, even if you don't vote for Deeds.

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