Iraqi Death Toll: 655,000 (And Counting)

A new study estimates that an astounding 655,000 Iraqis--more than 2 percent of the population--has died as a result of the war there.

The Bush Administration was quick to dismiss the study.

Not so fast.

A few months ago, the Bushies estimated the Iraqi war casualty toll at 30,000. We know that's a significant undercount because Bush lies about everything. We haven't seen anything that indicates how they arrived at that figure. We suspect they hired a Republican contractor who pulled the number out of thin air after billing the government a couple million to prepare the report. (Ok, call us cynical.)

In any event, the new study, overseen by epidemiologists at Johns Hopkins and funded by MIT's Center for International Studies, is based on a tried and true methodology. A team of Iraqi doctors visited 1849 randomly selected households and asked a household member about deaths within the family before and after the U.S. invasion began.

This methodology has been used throughout the world in other periods of crisis--war, famine, disease and disaster--to estimate lost lives, and it has long been validated scientifically as a reliable means of generating data.

What is particularly noteworthy about the Iraqi study is that in 87 percent of the households that reported one or more deaths, the researchers asked for a death certificate, and in 90 percent of those households the residents were able to produce a death certificate. That means the vast majority of reported deaths were verified, which is unusual for this type of study.

Let's just assume, however, for the sake of argument, that those households that didn't produce death certificates were making things up. That still amounts to roughly 513,000 deaths. (Do the math: 90 percent of 87 percent of 655,000).

Unless the households in which the interviews were conducted were not really random, or not representative of Iraq as a whole (unlikely if the study adhered to the most basic of epidemiological principles), then the survey clearly points to a far grimmer death toll among Iraqi civilians than previously painted.

Indeed, 655,000 deaths in a country the size of Iraq would equate to more than 7 million deaths in the U.S. (with a population roughly 11 times that of Iraq). It exceeds the military death toll in our own bloody civil war, at a time when our nation's population was just a tad larger than Iraq's today.

Put aside the politics for a second. The Hopkins study, based on a widely accepted methodology, raises some serious questions. The President, the Dept. of Defense, Congress, Democrats and the Iraqi government all need to know if things are really that out of control in Iraq. If they are, then the country is fully in civil war and our troops are accomplishing nothing at all other than, possibly making things worse. (Which is exactly what the general in charge of British troops in Iraq said today.)

It would be nice if we could, with a sense of urgency, get agreement on a nonpartisan group to try and replicate the Hopkins study with the backing of our government and that of Iraq. Sadly, it won't happen.

Its The Guns Stupid! Bush's Charade on School Violence

President George W. Bush, First Lady Laura Bush, Secretary of Education Margaret Spellings, and Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez all spent some time yesterday pretending to address the issue of school violence.

Somehow they all managed to get through the charade without bothering to mention guns, although W did state that school violence is "inexplissible."

[Thank goodness Cheney didn't host one of these sessions--someone might've gotten shot!]

So, let's see. What do the most recent horrific episodes of school violence all have in common? Hmm. Could it be that the perpetrators were all armed with semi-automatic or automatic assault rifles?

What are police supposed to do when faced with a maniac in a school armed with automatic weapons? There's not much they can do.

But the good ol' Republican party, beholden to the nut cases at the NRA, wants you to know that they are worried about violence in schools, and that they are going to do something about it. Why, indeed, they are going to have a number of forums about the issue, and they are going to urge school administrators to work harder to "prevent" such episodes.

In fact, President Bush, who is "troubled" by the recent school shootin . . ., er violence, said that what communities need is a list of "best practices" to prevent the kinds of attacks we've had recently.

Well, thank goodness someone is doing something!

Our guess is that those best practices don't include banning assault weapons, closing loopholes in gun enforcement (such as allowing unrestricted sales at gun shows), boosting enforcement of existing laws and allowing negligent gun sellers to be held liable. Just a hunch. 

Marriott Seaview: A Golf Resort Well Past Its Prime

As a continuing service to readers (and googlers) we review various resorts and vacation destinations we happen to stumble into.

This weekend we trekked over to southern New Jersey for a three-night stay at the Marriott Seaview Resort, just across Absecon Bay from Atlantic City. The Seaview, a classic old-style hotel built at the turn of the century, has two golf courses, tennis, hiking, a spa and a number of other activities.

The Fairway Villas--Nice Place to Stay

We stayed in one of the villas located on the Seaview grounds. The villa was fine--two bedrooms, capable of sleeping eight. Nothing special, but no major problems either. The villas are a pretty recent addition, built in the last few years, so they have all the modern amenities. They are called Fairway Villas, but unlike at many golf resorts, these villas really aren't on any fairway.

Across the street from the villas is the Faldo Golf Institute, with a driving range and various putting and chipping greens. We didn't try out any of these. However, a good two thirds of the range was dirt/sand. Not really a pretty sight to tell you the truth.

Next to the Faldo Institute is the Elizabeth Arden spa, along with a large outdoor pool, an indoor pool, an exercise room and other amenities. The women in our group reported favorably and enthusiastically on the spa, including the mineral pool reserved for adults only. The spa and related facilities--all new--were quite attractive. It was a bit chilly for the outdoor pool, but it looked like a great place for a hot day. The indoor pool was quite nice--the kids spent a good deal of time there.

Disappointing Golf Courses

We're sad to report that the golf courses--the centerpiece of the resort--were disappointing. The Pines Course--the more recent of the two--is not much better than your average muni, but a good deal more expensive. The 6700 yard layout is pretty pedestrian, although wayward shots will have to contend with (what else?) pine trees along most fairways.

What shocked us about the Pines course was the miserable conditions of fairways, tees, bunkers and areas around the greens. The greens themselves were ok, but slow and occasionally scruffy. Our recommendation: if you go to the Seaview, don't waste your time on the Pines course.

The premier layout is the Bay Course, home of the LPGA's annual Shop-Rite Classic. A Donald Ross design dating to the 1920's, this course has seen better times, but still has its charms. A short par 71, at only 6250 yards, the course combines longer par 4's and 3's with some short par 5's and a couple very short par 4's to make an interesting layout.

The best part of the Bay Course is the greens, which are in great shape and reasonably fast. The fairways are decent; areas around the greens and fairways suffer from inadequate maintenance. We had trouble finding rakes around many of the numerous bunkers, which of course meant a lot of them hadn't been rakes by the last unlucky chap to plop into them.

The front nine plays out at a par of 37, with two par 5's and only one par 3. The much shorter back nine plays out at a par of 34, with three par 3's and one par 5. (Which makes our back nine round on day one of 7 strokes worse than the front nine very aggravating.)

The staff at the small golf shop were reasonably friendly and efficient, the marshals were helpful and the gals in the snack cart and snack shop were great. (And we do know that friendly, helpful staff can make up for a lot of other problems, and vice verse.)

Good Grill; Not So Good Atlantic City; Really Ugly Delaware Gridlock

We did enjoy the small Grill Room in the Marriott. Located adjacent to a "family play room"--a game room kids will certainly enjoy--the grill is a perfect place for the adults to enjoy their dessert, coffee, aperitifs, etc. while the kids cavort next door.

We ventured into "AC"--Atlantic City--one night for dinner and a bit of gaming. We went to what allegedly is the "best" buffet in town, at the Showboat Casino. Hmm. We're not a fan of dinner buffets in general, and this one proved why. Lots of mediocre food. Of course, the buffet mentality is to try to get more than your money's worth by eating LOTS of food. Judging by the bellies at the bar, quite a few patrons were doing just that.

As for the casino itself, best we could tell it was quite a rip-off. The odds were much worse than in Vegas. Here's an example: on roulette, if you placed a bet on one of the 36 numbers, you'd get a payout of 34. In Vegas, the payout is 36 (the house comes out well ahead since there are 38 slots on the roulette wheel). It appeared that every other game had been engineered to reduce the odds of winning. Maybe that's just the Showboat--we didn't go anywhere else.

A final word: one of the advantages we saw of going to southern Jersey was its proximity to DC--a short drive for a weekend. But leave it to Delaware to ruin that! With two lanes of I-95 closed for construction--in BOTH directions--the Delaware bottleneck is worse than ever. It took us 5 hours to get to our destination on Friday, much of it crawling along through northern Maryland and Delaware in a massive backup.

Bottom line: if you live in Jersey, the Seaview might be worth it. But we don't recommend making a major trip there. 

London Bridge Redux

We've gotten quite a few hits on our piece on popular music, particularly our post about Fergie and London Bridge. Mostly these come from Google queries on "what does 'you make my London Bridge wanna go down' mean"?

Our research suggests that even Fergie doesn't know--or won't tell--leaving it to her large listenership to imagine for themselves what it means. That's reasonable--we have a pretty good idea that it means "you" in the song are "hot". We like our picture here of Fergie letting her London Bridge go up.

Random Thoughts

1. When Bill Clinton had consensual sex with a White House intern, Republicans and the whole right wing machine tried to impeach him.

Now, faced with their own sex scandal, in which Rep. Foley solicited congressional pages--possibly criminally--Republicans are ducking for cover and blaming each other. To us here at the Curmudgeon it's pretty obvious that Hastert should resign.

Of course Hastert "didn't know". That's why you conduct an investigation. If reporters could uncover the facts, surely a decent investigator for one of the Hill's committees could've done likewise.

2. As long as George Allen flatly denies using the N-word he is fair game for journalists to come up with more friends and acquaintances who confirm that he did, indeed, use it, and frequently.

3. We agree the Virginia Senate campaign should focus on issues. Iraq is one, but there are plenty more. Stem cells--Allen opposes research because it will help him in the '08 GOP Presidential primaries. Crass. What about energy? Allen would favor large oil producers and putting a pittance into alternative energy. Get real. What about the environment? Global warming is a fact. It may be too late, but we need to try. Allen's plan? Nothing.

On the BIG issues, Allen is wrong. He tries to paper that over with support for little initiatives over which there's little dispute. Like making it easier to prosecute internet predators. That's nice. What prosecutors really need is more resources, however, and in any event there's no real dispute about the need to curtail internet predation (including by Congressmen).

4. Iraq. A large majority of Iraqis believe Iraq would be safer if the U.S. withdrew. What up with that?

5. Webb and women. One of the Naval Academy grads who criticized Webb in a news conference with Allen has since talked to Webb and decided to endorse him. Webb has apologized. He was wrong. He did promote women, actively, when Secretary of the Navy. Is this Allen's idea of a discussion of issues? [Note: Webb is not running any ads on macaca, N-word use or anything else; Allen is running ads on "how dare you use an unaltered clip of Ronald Reagan" and "horny women". Wow, that's real positive and issue oriented.]

6. Traffic congestion in Northern Virginia. Need to send Republicans in the state legislature a message: you're next.

George Allen Speaks (With Forked Tongue)

Tonight, George Allen addressed Virginians on a two-minute paid television ad at the beginning of prime time.

So, what did he have to say?

He decried the negativity in the campaign, particularly the "baseless allegations." Let's be clear about this one: the allegations have plenty of base. What's baseless are his lame denials.

Perhaps George should've attended Yom Kippur services today, where he could have reflected on his past sins (usually one reflects on the past year, but since George just found out he was Jewish, he'd have to have a catch-up Yom Kippur, including those troublesome college years).

Yom Kippur would have been good for George: he would've atoned for the deer-head in the mailbox, the N-word epithets, macaca, the noose, the confederate flags--all that. He would've recited a prayer in which he forgives everyone who sinned against him over the past year, while also seeking forgiveness from those he sinned against. (On Yom Kippur, Jews are forgiven for sins against God; they don't automatically get atonement for sins against other people.)

What else did George have to say? He spoke about Iraq. "I'm concerned by the war in Iraq. . . . I want them [the troops] to come home in victory."

Oh, that's nice. What a platitudinous remark. We can all say that. Problem is, Allen is a Senator. So what has he actually DONE about it? NOTHING.

If he's so concerned, why not spend two minutes calling George Bush on the phone and saying "hey George, your people have messed this up. Get rid of Rumsfeld and get someone in here who can do the job!!"

I can tell you this much--cheerleading for the troops isn't going to get them to victory.

Think of it this way, George. If the coach sucks, if the offensive play book is flawed and the defense can't stop the run, you don't lead the team to victory by hiring prettier cheerleaders. Instead, you fire the coach, get a new playbook and recruit a couple good defenders. You've had four years to make those recommendations, but you haven't. So you need to go too.

Mason-Dixon Poll: Webb v. Allen Race a Dead Heat

Late breaking news: a new Mason-Dixon poll on the Virginia Senate race has it a dead heat, with Webb and Allen each getting 43 percent, with 12 percent undecided.

In July, Mason-Dixon gave Allen a comfy 16 point lead.

In August, Mason-Dixon gave Allen a small 4 point lead. One of Allen's bloggers explained it away, saying everyone with a telephone in the 'burbs was on vacation, so the poll numbers were anomalous. They must be on extended vacation.

George Allen's California Bred Racism

During Reconstruction, northerners who came south to prey on the locals were called carpetbaggers, while native southerners viewed as collaborators with occupiers from the north were called scalawags.

So what do we call someone from California who brought his racism to Virginia?

One of the sad things about George Allen's latest problem--N-word Gate--is that a lot of folks around the rest of the country will see Allen as just another Southern racist.

But he's not. Allen went to high school in California, where he evidently began his infatuation with the confederate battle flag and somehow formed his racist attitude toward African-Americans. While at Palos Verde High School in California, Allen was suspended in a bizarre incident in which he and other players wrote anti-white graffiti on school walls to incite the football team against blacks on a rival team. He told one of his UVa football teammates that he decided to play football at UVa because blacks "knew their place" in the Commonwealth.

How embarassing for us. Certainly Virginia and the rest of the South have had their share of racists, past and present. But many--perhaps most--white southerners were raised better.

When I was a young child growing up in South Carolina, I once angrily called my brother the N-word, echoing words I'd heard from some older redneck kid in school. My mother, a native Virginian whose family has been in Rockbridge County for many generations, immediately washed my mouth out with soap. I got a long lecture, with a few follow-ups, on why the N-word was horribly offensive, as well as on race relations in general. I'm glad for it.

Over the years I've fought against racism and for equality, but at the same time I've often resented northerners (fyi--in South Carolina, someone from California would be a "northerner") who, ignoring their own more subtle racist institutions, were quick to tsk, tsk the South.

Frankly, it's an embarassment to have Virginia now represented by a fellow with Allen's past who isn't even a native. He may have thought that's how Virginians were when he moved here in the 70's, and certainly he would have found some fellow travelers. But that's not how the majority were. I don't know what the right word is for it (i.e., an outsider bringing his racism to Virginia), but it should be something particularly odious.

It's time for Allen to go.

Allen and the N-word

The chickens are coming home to roost for Senator George Allen.

First it was "macaca" and "welcome to the real Virginia." Then is was "I may be Jewish after all, but I still like a good ham sandwich." And now it's N-wordgate.

The most recent revelation comes from a college football teammate of Allen's at UVa in the 1970's, who says Allen frequently used the word "nigger" and did such nice things as stuff a severed deer head into the mailbox of a black family selected at random. Another UVA acquaintance came forward to say that he, too, heard Allen use the N-word frequently.

Press reports say that at least two other college acquaintances of Allen have, anonymously, so far, confirmed that he frequently used the N-word. And, UVa political science professor Larry Sabato--a frequent go-to guy for the media when it comes to stories on Virginia politics--says he, too, heard Allen use the N-word.

You can bet your sweet bippy, as they used to say on '70's hit comedy show Rowan & Martin's laugh-in, that more stories of Allen's racist past will begin to pour forth. Why? Because they're true. There might also be some stories of Allen's more general party boy days at UVa.

Republicans should just be glad this all happened now, rather than in two years with Allen being a leading contender for the GOP presidential nomination (not gonna happen now). On Sunday, George Will, speaking as a regular panelist on George Stephanopoulos's ABC News talking head program, noted that presidential campaigns are ten times as difficult as Senate races and all but pronounced Allen's national ambitions as dead. And that was BEFORE N-word gate.

So what does Allen have to say about all this? He trotted out hatchetman Chris LaCivita, who evidently has succeeded hatchetman Dick Wadhams, to denounce the men who broke the story--R. Kendall Shelton, a radiologist in N.C., and Christopher Taylor, an antropologist at the University of Alabama.

According to LaCivita, Taylor is a "liberal activist" who "is not credible, period." Hmm. Let's see. LaCivita is clearly a conservative activist who, among other things, engineered the smear campaign against former Georgia Senator Max Cleland, and the Swift Boat campaign against John Kerry. No doubt he is planning something similar against Jim Webb ("bring it on" Chris). Our guess is that LaCivita views John McCain as a "liberal activist" too. LaCivita hasn't an ounce of credibility himself, so don't worry about what he has to say.

The interesting back story is LaCivita's sudden appearance on the scene as a spokesperson for Allen. Last week it was rumored that Allen had shaken up his staff after major supporters questioned the way Wadhams was running things. (Allen is the real problem, tho'--we don't think Wadhams told Allen to say "macaca"). The Allen camp denied the rumors, but now it looks like they're true.

Allen has also pulled together some supporters to say they've never heard him utter the N-word. Kind of like those women who said Clarence Thomas never harassed them.

We like the denials--they are likely to spur more former classmates to step forward with the truth.

Finally, what about the handful of black ministers who've rallied to Allen's support? If they're smart, they'll back off. This is going to get a lot uglier.

Have Some Shame

Occasionally as we're driving around Northern Virginia we'll spot a car--usually a big honking SUV--still sporting a "W '04" or a "Re-elect Bush Cheney" bumper sticker.

Aren't these folks embarassed? Have they no shame?

Bush to Global Warming: Mission Accomplished

Good ol' George Bush. He's on a roll. After winning the war in Iraq in a matter of weeks and then declaring victory, he's been off to other challenges.

One of those is global warming. Well, check off another mission accomplished box, because last week the Bush Administration announced its plan to lick this scourge as well.

The document, a 244 page report from the Department of Energy, titled "Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan" basically says lets use voluntary initiatives and technology to lick global warming.

I guess this guy really is serious about the issue. After all, six years of work and 244 pages--that's a real plan there pardner!

That ain't all--Bush proposes to spend a good $3 billion a year on research to come up with those great new technologies.

The plan suggests that hydrogen cars will be the solution.

In other words, just as we suspected, Bush is paying, at most, lip service to global warming, taking six years to lay out a band-aid approach to a serious problem. He'll probably name as director of the program some crony from one of the phony "scientific" organizations that question global warming.

Don't get us wrong--hydrogen cars are great. But they won't happen for another 30 years unless we adopt government policies that favor their development and adoption. You'll never see this administration, or any other Republican administration--beholden as they are to Big Oil--seriously push such initiatives. (Bush hasn't even followed up on his State of the Union pledge to raise fuel economy requirements for cars.)

While Bush has fiddled for the past 6 years, what has his predecessor, Bill Clinton, been up to?

Last week he got a $3 billion pledge from Richard Branson, of Virgin, to invest in new technologies, adding to another roughly $5 billion in pledges Clinton's initiative has rounded up so far.

Even that, of course, is just a drop in the bucket, but at least it's a start.

What we need is a comprehensive national policy with some clear goals and a set of policy initiatives designed to reach those goals. Don't count on it anytime soon. The next President will have to start at the beginning, at least 8 years behind. What a waste! 

Sunday Headlines: Bill Clinton Speaks Out; Bush Lies Exposed Again; Global Warming $$

A lot happening for a Sunday, of which we'll write more later this week.

Here's the headlines:

1. Bill Clinton gives it to Fox's Chris Wallace on Fox Sunday. About time! Our only question: Bill says he's been careful not to criticize the current administration, because it wouldn't be productive. We disagree--it's been six years; time to criticize!

2. The New York Times exposes a National Intelligence Estimate prepared in April, which flatly states that the war in Iraq is creating terrorists and complicating the war on terrorism. Presumably, Bush read the NIE at some point. But, thinking it was secret, he went out the past few weeks and just lied, lied, lied, lied to the country in a series of speeches where he asserted that the war in Iraq IS the war on terrorism.

3. Little noticed this past week, but the Dept. of Energy came out with a long-delayed, watered down limp noodle of a report outlining how the nation can combat global warming. Mix it with your discarded spinach. Meanwhile, Bill Clinton lands more than $3 billion from Richard Branson to do something real about global warming.

Oh, and lest we forget: a nice l'shana tova for George Allen.

Webb Rakes In the Bucks With Mark Warner

Thursday night Jim Webb held a major fundraiser at the Torpedo Factory in Alexandria, hosted by former Virginia Governor (and putative Presidential candidate) Mark Warner. Several hundred supporters attended the event, which raised roughly $300,000 for the Webb campaign.

We had a great time, seeing many friends and hanging with Jim's growing cadre of supporters.

The event included introductory remarks by Harris Miller, Jim's opponent in the Democratic primary, who was gracious to attend and promote Democratic unity in the campaign against George Allen. Former Lt. Governor Don Beyers, who supported Miller in the primary, also showed up to lend his support to Jim's campaign.

Mark Warner gave a rousing talk to the crowd, followed by Jim with his usual plain-spoken, no-nonsense, common-sense discussion of the issues and importance of this race.

Both Miller, who is Jewish, and Webb, drew laughs with quips about the incumbent Senator's newfound Jewish roots. (Webb's comment was the irony of the Allen campaign attacking Webb's bloggers, who are Jewish, for being anti-semitic.)

What we really enjoyed most was the energy and enthusiasm of the large crowd.

A day later we supped with a right-leaning friend who confided some concern about Allen's campaign. While he thought Allen would pull out a win, his view was that "Allen's presidential ambitions are toast--no one's impressed with how he's handled this campaign."

We can only hope!

Does Your London Bridge Go Down?

How come every time you come around my London, London bridge wanna go down?

If you're our age and don't have any teens or preteens around the house, you're wondering, "what the heck has the Curmudgeon been smoking?"

If you do have teens, then you know that's the refrain from the hit song "London Bridge" by Fergie (a.k.a. Stacie Ferguson), also the lead singer in the mega-group Black-Eyed Peas.

Our 11-year-old suddenly became quite interested in pop music a few months ago and now insists, along with his similarly infected 8-year-old brother, on listening to his favorite music while being shuttled around in the Curmudgeonmobile.

So we ride around, listening to the latest hits in rap, rock and pop on the top-20 channel on XM Radio. We have to say, many of the songs have their charm, which is a good thing as they rattle around in our brains for hours on end.

They also take some explaining. For example, Nelly Furtado's "Promiscuous Girl" (the 11-year-old has quite a crush on Nelly) required an explanation of the meaning of promiscuous. (We said it's someone who has multiple boy or girlfriends.)

Then there's Chamillionaire and their song "Riding Dirty," which is about racial profiling.

We still haven't figured out exactly what it means to have one's London Bridge go down, but we have a sneaking suspicion it's not something we'd want to explain.

A lot of the songs, as with any generation, are pretty fluffy and meaningless, and easily confused. Like "Me 'n U" and "U and Dat." It appears songs have become text messages.

Unfortunately, many of today's songs, especially rap, are filled with profanity. The boys are not allowed to download the "explicit" versions, but they, of course, know the lyrics to them anyway.

And now we find some of these tunes creeping into our everyday conversation. Like Kanye West's "Golddigger". ("Have you met Stan's new girlfriend? I'm not saying she's a golddigger . . ."). Or Fort Minor's "Where'd You Go" (Curmudgeon to child returning from friend's house: "where'd you go? I missed you so.")

Of course, it's only a matter of time--if we continue to show any interest in today's pop music, the boys will soon gravitate to something else. We just hope it's not the Greatest Hits of the '70's!

Women in the Military--How Webb Should Respond; Debate Tidbits

Jim Webb continues to pay a price for a 27-year-old magazine piece saying women can't fight in the military, cleverly resurrected by the George Allen campaign to deflect attention from Allen's macaca moment.

So far, Webb hasn't been particularly effective in responding.

Here's what he needs to do. It's not enough to just "apologize".

Instead Webb needs to say something like this: "It turned out I was WRONG. Dead wrong. Women have made a huge contribution to our military. [Then he should cite some--Marine Colonel Adele Hodges, Commander of Camp LeJeune, would be a good one.] I'm glad that those initial female cadets at the Naval Academy and all their successors proved me wrong, and I do apologize to them for any problems my article caused them." (He could expand a bit on the apology.)

"My friends, it's important to admit when you're wrong, as I have just done. Unfortunately, Sen. Allen has yet to admit that he and the President were wrong on Iraq. They have yet to admit that they misled Americans on Iraq. They have yet to admit that they mismanaged Iraq and are still doing so. You can't fix something that you don't think is broken . . ."

In addition, it would be nice if the Webb campaign could round up some women in the military who do support him--we're sure there are plenty--for a few campaign appearances.

Allen's Grandfather Jewish? Not an Issue

We're with the folks who boo'd a reporter who asked Allen if his mother wasn't really Jewish. Allen is not Jewish folks, and it really doesn't matter whether his mother or grandfather were, or were not.

Allen: Glad to Help Those Who Can Help Themselves

Here's Allen's idea of how the government should help Americans: health savings accounts, support for small businesses and efforts to invest in technology. All of these are upper middle class welfare programs. Most people, for example, don't have the discretionary income to take advantage of the tax advantages of health savings accounts; no big surprise, the richer you are, the bigger benefit you get out them.

When it comes to helping those who need it most, however, Allen turns up his nose. He opposed increasing the minimum wage, which hasn't been raised in years and which doesn't cost the government anything.

Allen is right about one thing: "this isn't a one issue campaign." He's the one out of step with the vast majority of Virginians on a whole host of issues--the economy, taxes, energy, the environment. He's one of those guys who thinks we still need to study global warming (take a look at the money he's gotten from oil companies who spout doubletalk on global warming).

And so it goes. Bring it on, George!

Webb and Allen Debate on Meet the Press

Yesterday morning Jim Webb and George Allen debated on Meet the Press. The central issue between them was the war in Iraq and, more generally, the war on terrorism.

The most telling moment came when Tim Russert asked Allen if more U.S. troops should be sent. Allen completely dodged the question, saying only "we're going to need to do what it takes to succeed."

What, Senator Allen, would constitute "success" in Iraq? If the answer is "avoiding civil war and restoring order" then we clearly need more troops. If the answer is "preventing Iraq from becoming a haven for terrrorists," then we clearly need a new strategy.

This, of course, is where Republicans supporters of George Bush, of which there is no greater rubber stamp than George Allen, are at their most maddening. Having created conditions ripe for civil war by mismanaging the invasion and its aftermath, and having created a terrorism problem where there was none before, they offer no solution to their self-created problems because they know the solution would be so unpopular they'd be booted from office.

Instead, Allen claims that Webb--whose son is a marine fighting in Iraq RIGHT NOW, is in favor of "cut and run."

Most Democrats do not favor "cut and run." They do favor doing something different, including getting rid of the folks who got us in this mess.

While we're on the topic of Iraq, the Washington Post yesterday had a fabulous in-depth article on how the Bush administration insisted on political purity over competence in staffing the Iraq reconstruction program.

The article makes you want to gag: Bush's people made sure that only Bush's people were put in place, going so far as to ask some applicants whether they supported Roe v. Wade! The result, as with many other agency appointments in this screwy administration, was the appointment of unqualified people to taxpayer funded positions. Worse yet, those same people went on to bungle the reconstruction, just as Bush's friends at FEMA bungled Katrina.

If Democrats succeed in taking over at least the House in November, you can bet that more of this crap will come to light in subsequent hearings and investigations. 

Water Conservation: Why Don't Homes Have Urinals?

Here's how you know you have too much time on your hands: you start asking questions like "why don't homes have urinals?"

It seems like a good idea. Today, most newer homes have at least one gigantic master bathroom that certainly would accomodate a urinal in addition to the traditional commode.

Urinals use less water than commodes. While the amount of water savings varies, depending on the type of unit used, a standard urinal typically uses one gallon per flush, while a standard toilet today uses 1.6 gallons per flush.

Let's assume that the roughly 150 million males in America would use a home urinal three times a day (being at work, school or somewhere else part of the day) if they had one. And let's assume that they would save .6 gallons compared to a toilet for each use. That comes out to water savings of 270 million gallons per day. Not bad!

A further benefit of home urinals would be to end to debate over whether it's the man's or the woman's responsibility to put the toilet seat down--it could always be down.

We suspect part of the problem is building codes and plumbing connection fees--in many localities, there is a charge for each toilet connected to the local sewer system. Others limit the number of toilets that can be connected to a septic tank. Perhaps municipalities should experiment with exempting urinals as a means to encourage water conservation.

Tradition may also be part of the problem, but we don't know why--virtually every public men's bathroom in the country has at least one urinal. It's not like it's some new-fangled contraption men aren't used to.

Perhaps this is an issue the urinal ice lobby can get going on! 

Longe Range Weather Forecast II--Still Gloomy

Back at the beginning of summer, the Curmudgeon conducted a little experiment to test the accuracy of long range weather forecasts. Our conclusion, after a brief test of the data, was that the five and ten day forecasts typically found on a weather website such as The Weather Channel's Weather.com amount to no more than a toin coss in terms of accuracy.

We also said we'd extend the experiment and report on the results later. Herewith, a report on the more extended data. We'll make another run at some point in the winter months to see if the long term forecast fares better in colder weather.

(Today, the area's weather forecasters predicted intermittent steady to heavy rain throughout the day. They were wrong. By noon today, the rain will have moved out of the region, leaving us with a cloudy and damp--but not rainy--afternoon. Certainly not the washout that was forecast.)

To recap the experiment, we asked the question: What if I want to plan an outdoor activity in Arlington between 1-6 pm on the day in question? If the forecast was for a 50% or greater chance of rain, we would plan to stay indoors. If less than 50%, we'd plan for outdoors. We also gave Weather.com a generous +/- 5 degrees on the temperature forecast before we'd say the forecast was wrong. (I.e., if the actual temperature was within 5 degrees of the forecast temp., we said the forecast was accurate.)

In our initial experiment, the 10-day forecast was correct only 43% of the time--worse than a coin toss. The five-day forecast was better, being right 61% of the time, which is still not much comfort if you really needed to rely on it.

We extended our observations to roughly six weeks--from June 9 to July 20--and here's how we came out.

Ten Day Forecast

The ten day forecast improved a bit over the longer observation period, but still was just barely better than a coin toss. Out of 35 observation days (some days we had no data), the 10-day forecast was correct 18 times and incorrect 17 times, for a 51.4% accuracy rate. In short, there's really no point publishing a 10-day forecast with the current state of the art.

Five Day Forecast

The five day forecast stayed the same in terms of accuracy. It was correct on 23 out of 37 observation days, for a 62% accuracy rate.

What may be the most interesting observation here is that the five day forecast really wasn't much more accurate than the 10-day forecast. We would've expected that the five additional days would result in a vast improvement in the forecast, but it didn't. In other words, there's really not much point in having a 9-day, or an 8-day, or a 7-day or 6-day forecast either, because the extra days don't help the accuracy meaningfully.

In contrast, our observation was that the one-day forecast--i.e., the forecast for the following day--was generally quite accurate, exceeding 90% (the missed days were almost always due to a short-lived thundershower). Thus, the accuracy rate does improve considerably between the five day and the one day forecast.

We'll see how the experiment goes in the winter months, when weather patterns can be more stable. For now, however, our conclusion is this: weather forecasters are little better than a monkey with a coin when it comes to predicting the weather more than 5 days out. 

What Would George Allen Have Said to Isaac Ho'opi?

Last night, while sitting at Fed-ex Field watching the Redskins bungle the first game of the season, we watched a halftime ceremony to honor those fallen at the Pentagon on 9/11.

The ceremony featured Pentagon police officer Isaac Ho'opi, a dark-skinned native Hawaiian, now resident in Virginia, who on 9/11 rushed into the gaping fiery hole in the side of the shattered building and carried out eight people, while guiding another 15-20 to safety through the smoke with his booming bariton voice. Officer Ho'opi led the 90,000 fans at Fed-ex field in a moving rendition of "God Bless America."

Watching him, we couldn't help but think: what would George Allen say if he encountered this husky dark-skinned man with the unusual last name wearing civilian clothes at some public event? Would he welcome Isaac to America?

Nancy Reagan's Objection

We weren't going to say anything about Nancy Reagan's objection to Jim Webb's first campaign ad, featuring a brief video clip of President Reagan praising Webb's military service in a speech. After thinking about it, however, we can't see why Webb shouldn't use the clip.

By using the actual video from Reagan's speech, Webb avoids distortion or misquotation of what Reagan actually said.

While we understand Ms. Reagan's concerns, we don't think she can validly insist that no one, at no time, can use her husband's image in a political context. Ronald Reagan was a politician, a public figure and a President--his words are part of the public record and they should be available for use.

Bush: All Talk, No Action

Last night W told the country that the war in Iraq is one that must be won, otherwise the country will not be safe from terrorism.

As oft-stated here, we disagree--the war in Iraq is a distraction from the war on terrorism, draining critical resources away and fomenting anti-American anger abroad.

Put that aside for a moment. Let's suppose the President is right. Then what the heck are he, Cheney and Rumsfeld doing? Obviously, we aren't winning that war right now. Indeed, the Washington Post reported yesterday on a classified memo from the Marines' top intelligence officer in the region stating flat-out that Anbar province--the largest Sunni province in Iraq--is hopelessly lost.

Furthermore, in recent weeks troops have been withdrawn from fighting the war in other parts of the country so they can stabilize Baghdad before it falls into irreversible civil war as well.

So, if Bush is really right--that we have to win--then he should be sending in more troops. He should be expanding our military capability so we can cope with the war in Iraq as well as other security threats (such as the real threat from Iran, which openly armed Hizbullah in Lebanon).

Today's Post carries an op-ed piece from conservatives William Kristol and Rich Lowry saying that "more U.S. troops in Iraq would improve our chances of winning a decisive battle at a decisive moment. . . . The president should therefore order a substantial surge in overal troop levels in Iraq . . ."

Problem is, Bush isn't calling for more troops; he isn't doing anything--just staying a course that clearly isn't working.

Sometimes we hear from Republican friends that they admire Bush for being "steadfast," "resolute," blah, blah, blah.

As many Americans are finally figuring out, that's a bunch of BS. Bush doesn't have the courage of his convictions. He knows politically that asking for more troops would further hurt his standing and that of his party. So rather than do what it takes to win this war that supposedly we can't afford to lose, he chooses the path of lesser resistance.

And that, as much as anything else, is why this President will go down in history as one of our nation's worst.

George Allen's Minority Round-up

Yee-ha, Macaca! Head 'em up and move 'em out boys--time to round up the minorities for a photo opp! Get those dark-skinned folk in heah so I can put my arms around 'em, show 'em I like 'em as much as I like Real Virginians.

Yep, good 'ol George Allen hosted a special event over the weekend in Fairfax County to feature his support from various ethnic minorities, just to show that, macaca or not, he's got friends with dark skin too. "Welcome to America, folks . . ."

Problem is, go to one of Georgie Boy's regular campaign events--one where his staff hasn't worked the GOP phone lists, looking for people with strange sounding names--and it's pretty much all white folks.

We at the Curmudgeon don't have anything against white folks, but Jim Webb and other Democrats don't have to hold a special event to showcase their support from ethnic minorities.

More Good Poll Numbers

More macaca fallout: some of Allen's supporters claimed that recent polling showing George in trouble merely reflected that all those suburban white people were on vacation before Labor Day when the pollsters called.

Whoops! A fresh Mason-Dixon poll (conducted after Labor Day) shows Allen's lead having shrunk from 16 percent at the end of July to just four percent (pretty much in the poll's margin of error). Allen leads 46%-42%, with plenty undecideds--which is about where other polls have recently put the race.

9/11: In Memoriam

To all those innocent workers in the World Trade Center towers, to the brave passengers and crews of the four hijacked airliners, to the men and women working in the Pentagon that day, to the hapless guests and staff at the World Trade Center Marriott, to the incredibly courageous first responders, you are in our hearts today, as always. We salute you, we remember you, we will carry on.

And to all those who have since sacrificed their lives and their bodies fighting in Afghanistan and other parts of the world to right this wrong and secure our country, and to those brave soldiers who have sacrificed in Iraq to fix a mess created by misguided leadership, we honor and remember you, we thank you and we're grateful for your service. 

Mad As Hell On 9/11 Anniversary

Here at the Curmudgeon, we try not to get angry. Curmudgeonly, yes; snippy, true. But not angry, if we can help it.

As we approach the fifth anniversary of 9/11, however, we are mad as hell.

It's been five years now, and this moronic incompetent Bush Lite administration continues to bungle the response to 9/11.

We know this: the attack was set in motion by Osama Bin Laden from Afghanistan. Saddam Hussein had nothing to do with it.

So what did the assholes at the White House do? They mounted a nominal response to Osama in Afghanistan, which resulted in temporarily setting back the Taliban and driving Bin Laden into hiding in remote areas of Pakistan. We installed a friendly new government in Kabul and we've kept something less than 25,000 troops in the country. Today, the Taliban is resurgent and Osama continues to direct his terror operation.

Meanwhile, Bush, Cheney and their ilk used 9/11 and the country's outrage as an EXCUSE to start a war they were planning long before 9/11, which they KNEW had nothing to do with 9/11, and which ultimately has created more terrorists than it has destroyed. As a consequence, we have 125,000 of our best troops tied up in Iraq fighting an insurgency we created--it didn't exist before we got there. At the same time, we are powerless against Iran and North Korea as they develop REAL weapons of mass destruction.

Osama must be laughing in his cave.

If anyone would've been able to look into a crystal ball on 9/12 and report that, five years later, we still wouldn't have caught the guy responsible, a crowd would've lynched W on the spot when he gave his speech at ground zero.

But what's really galling is that we're not even trying to get Bin Laden--if we were, we'd have 125,000 troops in Afghanistan, we'd tell Pakistan to take a hike if they didn't like us going across the border, and we'd choke down until we captured this criminal.

Occasionally, like this morning, I'll see someone sporting a "W '04" or "Re-elect Bush Cheney" bumper sticker on their car (usually a gas-guzzling SUV) and I'll wonder: don't these people have any self-respect? Are they idiots? Aren't they the least bit sorry they put these guys back for four more years?

We hope the American people are smart enough to see through the Bush-Rove-Cheney axis's current public relations offensive to convince people they are doing a good job. As a patriot and a Democrat who believes terrorism is a real problem, it makes me mad that these numbskulls are going around suggesting that Democrats would make us less safe. THEY haven't done shit--in fact, THEY have increased our risk by starting a war we didn't need while letting Osama go.

Wake up people! 

Allen Camp Horrified by Webb Ad Featuring Reagan

Not surprisingly, George Allen's campaign has reacted with shock and horror at Jim Webb's first television campaign commercial. No, it's not an attack ad. Indeed, it doesn't even mention Allen. (The mudslinging will come later, probably initiated by Allen.)

Instead, the ad features former President Ronald Reagan heaping praise on Webb--who served as Assistant Secretary of the Navy and Navy Secretary under Reagan--for his valorious service in Viet Nam.

Memo to Allen campaign: quick, gin up a phony group of Viet vets to air ads discrediting Webb's service!

Allen's campaign manager, hatchet man Dick Wadhams, said the ad "reeks of hypocrisy." Well, Wadhams would certainly know something about hypocrisy, that's for sure.

As a Democrat solidly committed to getting Webb elected, the Curmudgeon has to say it is a bit eery to see an ad featuring Reagan. When was the last time you saw that coming from a Democratic candidate? (Probably never!)

Still, if the ad's got Allen's people sputtering--and clearly it does--then we like it.

To see the ad, go to: http://www.webbforsenate.com/ads/

New York Times Myth II--Obesity

As long as we're on myths out of the New York Times Magazine, we might as well comment on a two part series the mag carried this summer on obesity.

One of the parts ("Fat Factors," 8/13/06) purported to plumb scientific research linking obesity to viruses and other micro-organisms.

Here's all we really needed to know out of that article however: the average daily calorie intake of morbidly obese persons--more than 300 pounds--is something like 6700 calories. That's more than 3 times the roughly 2000 calories per day recommended for women, and 2.5 times the daily intake of 2500 calories recommended for men. In short, most really obese people are simply eating way too much food.

Recent research also shows that overweight people (not just those who are morbidly obese) are poor at estimating the number of calories in their diet, i.e., they tend to substantially underestimate the amount of food they are really taking in.

Sadly, nothing in either of the two parts of the Times Magazine stories dealt with the phenomenon of portion size and its impact on obesity rates. Since the 1960's, just about everything in American diets has gotten bigger--salads, appetizers, main courses and desserts. Even plates and bowls are bigger now than 30 years ago, and for gosh sakes glasses and cups truly runneth over.

Suggesting that the obesity epidemic is due to some virus or micro-organism is not really productive, nor is the science described in the Times Magazine article very persuasive. To be sure, there may well be some small percentage of persons who are overweight where an environmental factor at least plays a contributing role; certainly, genetics play a role as well. But genetics and micro-organisms have been around for millenia, and they haven't changed much.

What people really need help with is figuring out the proper AMOUNT to eat, and strategies for limiting themselves to such portions.

One small step forward on that front is so-called "100 calorie" portions--snacks and drinks conveniently presented in a 100-calorie package. These portions are generally much smaller than the mega-portions we've featured on this page in past posts giving out Gluttony Awards to obesity enablers.

While nothing will stop some people from abusing 100-calorie packs--eating too many of them--the economics at least discourage it. For those who are underestimating their intake while trying their best to stay healthy, such packaging is a big step forward.

Our message here continues to be the same: it's not what you eat, it's how much. Eat what you like, but keep your portions small. Especially when eating out, don't be afraid to leave food on your plate. And don't think there is "value" in consuming the largest combo at the lowest price. Factor in the value of your health!

Movie Myths From The New York Times

This weekend's New York Times Magazine brought an unintentionally amusing article about indie actress Vera Farmiga. The thesis of the article was that Hollywood no longer makes dramas with women in leading roles like the good ol' days of Meryl Streep and movies like Sophie's Choice. As a consequence, we are told, we'll never get to see that poor Vera is just as good as Meryl was in her day.

Like most retrospectives on the good ol' days, this one was written with rose-colored glasses on.

Assertion number one: unlike in the 1980's, today women are no longer cast as the stars of "mainstream studio movies." All that's available for women today are romantic comedies and "women-in-peril" films.

Whoops. What about Million Dollar Baby, a terrrific Oscar-winning 2004 flick starring Hilary Swank in the lead role. What about Monster in 2003 with Charlize Theron? Halle Berry in Monster's Ball in 2001--not mentioned either. All these movies received high critical praise and did okay--not spectacular, but okay--at the box office. (As we see below, Sophie's Choice did likewise.)

Then NYT goes on to say that Reese Witherspoon's Oscar-winning performance in Walk The Line doesn't count because, unlike Sissy Spacek in 1981's Coal Miner's Daughter, Witherspoon played second fiddle to Joacquin Phoenix. DUH! Since Walk the Line was about a male singer's life--Johnny Cash--it just figures the movie had a male lead. How do you compare that to a movie about a female singer's (Loretta Lynn) life?

Oh, but there's this: "In 2005, there was not a single female-driven drama that was a financial blockbuster." That's because North Country (with Charlize Theron), Proof, with Gwyneth Paltrow, and Memoirs of a Geisha were not in the top ten at the box office for '05.

Well, so what about those good ol' days of Meryl Streep in Sophie's Choice (1982) and The French Lieutenant's Woman (1981)? No sign in the top 10 for those years, either. In fact, 1982 featured such big hits as Porky's and Poltergeist--not exactly dramas with female leads either.

It is true that today Hollywood doesn't turn out many dramas with female leads. It's not true that in some bygone era Hollywood did turn out scads of dramas with female leads, which went on to become box office smashes.

The good news, however, is that today there are many more indie film companies and producers, as well as more and better vehicles--such as the Sundance Festival--for promoting them. And the indies DO put out quite a few excellent dramas every year, some with female leads.

In the end, it's not clear what this all has to do with Vera Farmiga. She's a talented actress who's played supporting roles in some nice indie films. The proposition that she is Meryl Streep in an age when they don't make movies for Meryl Streep, however, is bogus. 

George Allen's Bogus Engineering Numbers

Good ol' George Allen. By golly if he isn't "doing something" about one of our most pressing issues of the day! No, not Iraq, high gas prices, global warming, rebuilding the Gulf Coast, fair taxes, raising the minimum wage.

What you thought those were the big issues? Well let George tell you: its the engineer gap that's really bedeviling our country. And Senator Allen is there to help out. You see, according to George China is turning out 600,000 engineers per year, India 400,000, but the U.S. only 70,000. We're falling behind, dadgummit. Time to do something!

There's only one problem: Allen's numbers are bogus. The widely cited engineer gap was largely debunked (that means "disproved," George) in a study published by a group of Duke engineers about a year ago. It turns out that the comparison between U.S. engineers and those from China and India was a comparison of apples to oranges and grapefruits.

The 70,000 U.S. engineers per annum are those with engineering degrees from four-year colleges. It does not include many graduates with technical degrees in two and three year programs, nor does it include large numbers of graduates with degrees in the computer and information technology fields. In contrast, the numbers out of China and India include as "engineers" a large number of "graduates" from shorter programs who in the U.S. would be considered "technicians." It also includes computer and information technology workers, who in the U.S. are not classified as engineers.

Reworking the numbers, Duke concluded that the U.S. turns out 222,000 "engineers" per year (using the same operational definition as for China and India), compared to 215,000 for India and 640,000 for China. India has three times the population of the U.S., and also has a lot of catching up to do to reach the level of engineers per capita that we already have in the U.S. China has four times the population of the U.S. and likewise has a lot of catching up to do.

Even those numbers are a bit misleading, because the quality of the engineering programs at the lower, more technical levels in China and India are considered well below U.S. standards.

Bottom line: there is no engineer gap. There is no "problem" to fix. Allen is tilting at windmills, while he tries to cover up his role in the ongoing fiasco that is the Bush Administration.

You go, George!

Declining SAT Scores: Is Is The Washington Post's Fault?

This is priceless--here's the headline on today's Washington Post editorial decrying the widely reported decline in SAT scores:

UnSATisfactory

Is is the test, or the test-takers?

Guess the Post is using some of those recent high school grads who took the SAT to write and proof its headlines!

Webb's Surge Past Allen

In the past two weeks Jim Webb has surged past George Allen in the polls. Here's the timeline:

July 18: Rasmussen Poll--Webb 39%, Allen 50%

Early August: Allen: "MACACA"

August 16: Rasmussen Poll--Webb 42%, Allen 47%

August 21: Survey USA--Webb 45%, Allen 48%

August 28: Zogby/Wall Street Journal--Webb 47.9%, Allen 46.6%

This, of course, is great news for Webb. Yet, at the same time, it means Allen will up the ante and start spending some of his cash horde, enhanced by his recent fat cat fund raiser at Ed Gillespie's home with George Bush.

(Aside: Bush's security team toyed with the idea of closing down the express lanes on I-395 for a few hours so Bush could speed to the fundraiser by car. Too bad they figured out it was a bad idea and went by chopper instead. Had Bush taken the road route, the resultant traffic jam and bad publicity would have cost Allen another five points at a minimum.)

We hope Dems in the rest of the country are taking note and flood Webb's campaign with the moola necessary to counter Allen's expected push. This is a winnable race!

Look for the polls to stay close--within five points or so--for the next few weeks, with a fair amount of fluctuation back and forth.

We figured it would be early October before Webb showed this kind of momentum, so we're clearly ahead of schedule, with a ton of work yet to be done.

Arcadia Bluffs Golf Course: A Unique Golf Experience

It ain't easy to reach Arcadia, Michigan, a tiny hamlet hard on the eastern shore of Lake Michigan and a good four-plus hour drive from Detroit. Yet, as you make the turn into the service road to Arcadia Bluffs Golf Club and spy the red-roofed modern clubhouse sitting on a hill overlooking the lake and 18 gorgeous holes of golf course, you start to think it might just have been worth getting up at 6:00 a.m. to make the long trek.

Arcadia Bluffs is ranked 56th on Golf Digest's current listing of 100 greatest courses, and 10th on its companion listing of greatest public courses.

It deserves the high rankings. The Curmudgeon had the good fortune to play Arcadia Bluffs this week with a buddy and two very good-natured Michigan hosts. (That's the 13th hole, a par three across a ravine, into the wind coming off Lake Michigan, above.)

Standing on any one of the elevated tees, looking out at Lake Michigan pounding the shore nearly 80 feet below, one could easily think he had been transported to the Oregon coast. Had a whale breached the water, the Curmudgeon wouldn't have been at all surprised (although his Michigan playing companions certainly would've been shocked).

We had Oregon weather as well. The pro shop should have been the tip-off. Apart from the usual stock of shirts, balls, gloves and like, Arcadia's pro shop has an extensive line of rain gear, pullovers, special gloves and the like.

As we pulled up to the clubhouse in our white stretch Excursion (a bit of excess, but a great way to travel), it began to drizzle. By the time we got to the quaint driving range--reminiscent of a muni course with its token-operated ball machine--it was sprinkling drops of cold rain. Dark clouds boiled over the horizon on Lake Michigan as mist began to envelope the course. As we teed off on the first hole it rained lightly. By the fifth hole we were battling a driving rain off the lake.

The air was cool--no more than 65 degrees despite it being the middle of an August day. Fortunately, our Michigan hosts had warned us that it might not be exactly like hot, humid Washington, where no one would even think of bringing along a warm pullover in the summer!

Despite the rain, the course held its charm. Built into rolling hills on the bluffs overlooking the lake, Arcadia features narrow green fairways surrounded by steep hillsides covered with brown heather. From some vantage points the brown hills look more like a moonscape than a golf course.

Errant drives from the tee are punished by time-consuming and usually fruitless searches for balls in the brown stuff. A good tee shot, however, usually sets up a fairly open approach shot to the fast, undulating greens at Arcadia. It was not unusual to see a putt struck from one side of the green to a pin in the middle end up on the other side of the green after curving down a big slope, accompanied by a muttering of curse words from the unfortunate golfer who'd made the putt.

By the time we started the back nine, the rain stopped. We even got sunshine for the last few holes, which dried us out and lifted our spirits as we ground through the final holes. With the change in weather it was like playing on two different days.

The final hole starts with an elevated tee, with Lake Michigan to your back. A well struck ball will end up in a valley, with the next shot played up a steep hill toward the clubhouse, where guests can sit on a porch and watch smugly as golfers trudge in for their last couple of putts. We had a small gallery of women who did their best to cheer us on as we uniformly butchered the hole!

Apart from the golf, Arcadia has an attractive, nicely apportioned clubhouse with a good-sized dining room and decent food--a necessity given its isolation.

After finishing up, all we had to do was make the four hour trek back to the environs of Detroit.

So, if you happen to find yourself in northwestern Michigan, make sure to check out Arcadia Bluffs. Dress warmly, and bring your rain gear. 

Katrina Redux: The Colossal Incompetence of the Bush Adminstration

Last night, HBO aired the first two parts of Spike Lee's four part documentary on Hurricane Katrina. It was an excellent and moving account of a shameful episode in American history.

As we watched, we wanted to punch George Bush in the nose. It really reminded us of what a complete asshole he is.

Not that New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin and Lousiana Governor Kathleen Blanco were much better. We don't blame Nagin for what happened after the storm--by that time there was little he could do. But before the storm he aptly illustrated the difference between words and action: Nagin used words to order a "mandatory" evacuation, but he didn't lift a finger to make it work in a city where prior exercises had clearly shown that at least 30 percent of the population WOULD NEED ASSISTANCE to evacuate. You can't just order an evacuation--you have to prepare for and execute one. Sadly, many coastal cities still haven't learned that lesson.

Blanco was pretty pitiful as well, carrying out political grudges and dithering over important decisions.

Still, Bush was the worst, along with his cronies Chertoff and Brownie, because they had the greatest resources available, yet they just failed to grasp the true depth and extent of suffering going on while they moved at a glacial pace to provide relief. (Contrast the Coast Guard, which was ready, sprung into action and threw out all its rules, reasoning, correctly, that the situation was simply too dire).

We have to think what President Clinton would have done if this was on his watch. He would've been in New Orleans by the end of Day One. He would have been on the ground. He would've been handing out food and water. And he probably would've stayed. He would've told his people to get their butts in gear and get it done.

Two great scenes from the documentary: in one, Condoleeza Rice is trying on Ferragamo shoes in New York City while someone relates a story of a white woman who chastised her for buying shoes while New Orleans was drowning. In the second, a middle-aged African-American, referring to Bush, Blanco and Nagin, says "man, these fellows give C students a bad name."

More Great News for Jim Webb--Just 3% Gap In Latest Poll

This just in from CBS affiliate WUSA (Channel 9) in D.C.:

http://wusa9.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=51530


"GOP Allen's Once Large Lead Evaporates: In an election for the United States Senate in Virginia today, 8/21/06, incumbent Republican George Allen edges Democrat challenger James Webb 48% to 45%, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for WUSA-TV Washington DC.

Since an identical SurveyUSA poll released 6/28/06, Allen has lost 8 points and Webb has gained 8 points. Allen's lead has shrunk from 19 points to 3 points.Interviewing for this poll began 8/18/06, 1 week after Allen singled out a Webb campaign worker at an Allen rally.

Allen has lost support across all demographic groups, but in particular, among younger voters, he has gone from Plus 23 to Minus 17, a swing of 40 points. In Southeastern VA, Allen has gone from a 2:1 lead to a tie, a 31-point swing."

The New No Nothings: Allen And Young

Here's a great ticket for a new No Nothing Party: George "Macaca" Allen and Andrew "Jews, Koreans and Arabs" Young.

The No Nothings arose in the mid-1800's as a nativist movement opposed to immigration at a time when a large wave of Irish Catholics were arriving in major eastern cities in the U.S.

Virginia Senator George Allen and former U.N. Ambassador Andrew Young would make a good crossover ticket for a new No Nothing movement. Allen's recent referral of a young Indian-American campaign worker as "macaca" and his "welcome to America" comment to the Fairfax County (which has a large ethnic population) resident qualify him to head the ticket. As a bonus, Allen's unqualified support for every one of Bush's failed policies makes him, literally, qualified as a Know Nothing.

Andrew Young would seem like a more unlikely candidate for the Know Nothings, but his recent comments in support of Walmart have pushed him into contention for the VP slot. For those who missed it, Young applauded Walmart for pushing out the "mom and pop" stores that had served African-American communities for generations. His rationale:

"[T]hose are the people who have been overcharging us, selling us stale bread and bad meat and wilted vegetables. And they sold out and moved to Florida. I think they've ripped off our communities enough. First it was Jews, then it was Koreans and now it's Arabs; very few black people own these stores."

Nice move, Andrew--you managed to offend even more ethnicities than Allen.

The Curmudgeon's (Jewish) grandfather owned a mercantile store in the small town of North, South Carolina, where he served the local African-American community for years, extending credit when no one else would, giving items to needy families and providing jobs to young men and women who otherwise would've been stuck working in cotton fields.

Anyway, Young has been dropped by Walmart, for obvious reasons. So now he has time to get together with Senator Allen.

Sadly, they'd probably get quite a few votes.

Macaca Factor

The race between Jim Webb and incumbent Virginia Senator George Allen has tightened up following Allen's heartfelt "macaca" insult aimed at one of Webb's campaign volunteers.

A Rasmussen poll has the race at 47% for Allen to 42% for Webb, with the rest undecided. While the Curmudgeon expects the poll numbers to fluctuate up and down in the coming weeks, this poll clearly shows that Allen is vulnerable.

We expect that Webb will steadily chip away at Allen's softer support as voters in the middle get to know Webb better as the campaign heats up after Labor Day.

The heavier damage, for Allen, may be in the crowded field of Republicans running for President. Allen has been in damage control mode, but it doesn't take much to eliminate someone from contention such a large field.

We hope Allen will reveal some more of his core inner convictions before its all over.

The True George Allen

Public figures are usually so careful about what they say in public that its difficult to tell what they really think. But when they slip up, we often get a rather ugly glimpse of their true feelings.

Mel Gibson is only one of the more recent and glaring examples. After denying for years that he is anti-semitic, Mel loosed his true feelings in a drunken tirade filled with anti-Jewish remarks. Sure, he apologized, etc., etc., but now we know the real Mel. The alcohol didn't cause him to lie.

Another good case in point is Virginia Senator George Allen, who recently got caught at a fundraiser using a derogatory name for a young man from an Indian family (India, that is--thanks Chris Columbus, for the centuries of confusion on that one).

The man, S.R. Sidarth, is a volunteer for the campaign of Allen's opponent, Jim Webb, who has been videotaping Allen's appearances around the state. (Guess what--it's Republican campaign hacks who pioneered that little trick.) Allen pointed him out during the fundraiser and said "this fellow here, over here with the yellow shirt, macaca, or whatever his name is . . ."

Macaca is a racial slur against African immigrants commonly used in Europe.

Who can doubt that in his more private moments, hanging out and joking around with his close friends and football buddies, George Allen regularly uses such derogatory terms. So, we have a small glimpse into the real George Allen.

Of course, his voting record tells us as much. Here's a guy whose record says "oh sure, I'll support an increase in the minimum wage for the regular working stiff, but ONLY if we also do away with the estate tax for the wealthiest Americans, the fellows funding my campaign." Nice guy.

Now for a minor complaint about the Webb campaign: whenever they refer to Senator Allen, they call him "George Felix Allen." The Curmudgeon reckons that's because Felix is a bit of an ususual name, but really, so what?

We don't like George Allen, but he is a Senator. There's no need to throw in the Felix--it's petty. Let Allen's mouthpieces pull that kind of crap. The last gubernatorial campaign showed that voters don't like all that negativity. Rise above it, Webbies.

Lieberman Deserved To Lose

If the Curmudgeon had been a Connecticut resident, he would've voted for Joe Lieberman yesterday.

Why? Because the charges made by victor Ned Lamont and a covey of liberal bloggers against Lieberman were largely overblown. Lieberman has been a loyal Democrat and an important voice in the party for years. True, he is more conservative than many of his fellow Democratic senators, but that hardly makes him a "Conservative."

Anyway, Lieberman lost, and he deserved to. Lamont and his supporters raised some legitimate questions about Lieberman, especially his strong support for the Iraq war. For reasons we'll never understand, Joe L. chose not to respond to those questions until just a couple days before the primary. When he did, Lamont's lead quickly shrunk, but Lieberman was a day late and a dollar short.

The Curmudgeon would not vote for Lieberman as an independent in November. The guy had his chance and truly bungled it. He shouldn't get a do-over.

In filing as an independent, Lieberman said he is still running "for the sake of our state, our country and my party." Well, if that's the case, Joe, why didn't you take on the issues in the primary?

While the Curmudgeon does not subscribe to the vitriolic posts of many bloggers who attacked Lieberman, we do think he owed the voters of Connecticut a spirited defense of his positions, particularly on Iraq. Geez, Joe, if you're going to support a war that more than 80% of the folks in "your" party have come to despise, you ought to have been able to articulate cogent reasons for doing so. We never saw much on that score.

Sen. Lieberman, thanks for your service. You lost fair and square, so now it's time to endorse Lamont (for the sake of "your" party) and move on. Who knows, as an ex-Senator, you might even become presidential material.

Wiping Out The Center

The latest victim of George Bush and Karl Rove is the political center.

Moderates in both parties are running for cover as voters angry at Bush's hard-right politics, incompetence, and bungling of the Iraq war look for ways to vent their wrath.

Unfortunately, the largest blocs of those angry voters are in blue states, where there are relatively few right wing Republicans to go after. So, instead they are blasting away indiscriminately at Republican and Democratic moderates.

Joe Lieberman in Connecticut is the most obvious example, but there are others. Rep. Christopher Shays in Connecticut and Sen. Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island are endangered moderates on the GOP side. In fact just about every remaining Republican in the northeast is an endangered species--they're a bit like Democrats in the South over the past 10 years, a steadily declining breed indeed.

Among Republicans, a similar phenomenon may be happening, but it appears to be more isolated. The betting today is that Rep. Joe Schwarz, a Republican moderate in Minnesota, will lose the GOP primary today to a far right winger. Since there aren't that many GOP moderates outside the northeast, however, it's hard to say.

The numerous '08 presidential contenders in both parties are taking notice of the trend. It doesn't bode well. If things keep going this way, the '08 races will be huge loyalty contests among each party's more extreme wings, promising a nasty, polarized race.

The true victim, of course, is us--the country as a whole. In today's polarized environment, nothing is getting done at the national level on a whole host of important problems. We can't get going on energy, where we need some important compromises on domestic oil drilling, conservation, nuclear development and renewable sources. We can't even get a discussion going on social security. We can't tackle illegal immigration, which is a problem. We can't even get started on global warming (of course, it would help if the President would have the balls to acknowledge there is problem). The list goes on.

While states can individually try their best to address these problems, most cannot be satisfactorily resolved in such piecemeal fashion.

We don't see things getting any better over the next two years.

Sigh.

Kiawah: The Golf Resort

Yesterday, we covered Kiawah as a family resort; today, we review Kiawah the golf resort.

Kiawah has a well-deserved reputation as one of the top golf resorts in the country, but it is not one without a few warts.

While at Kiawah we played rounds at the island's three top golf courses: Osprey Point, Turtle Point and the resort's big attraction, The Ocean Course (host to the 2007 Senior PGA tournament and the 2012 PGA tournament, as you are mercilessly reminded at every opportunity).

Osprey Point--Great Course, Badly Managed

We played Osprey Point first.

Osprey, designed by famed golf course architect Tom Fazio, is probably Kiawah's prettiest course, winding among the large homes, lagoons and marshes on the back of the island. It is a fun course with lots of water and a few shorter holes that invite you to score if you can hit it accurately.

Osprey does have one significant design defect, which is that the first hole faces directly into the morning sun in summer. It's an annoying way to start the day if you have an early tee time (and you'd better get out early at Kiawah in the summer, to beat the heat).

Management at Osprey was pretty spotty. In fact, the folks running it pretty darn near ruined the round. No one was particularly friendly.

Maybe the local members are why: we started as a foursome, only to have a twosome behind us, a couple who were "sport members". The twosome promptly tailgated us, with the guy in the twosome hitting into us once, and then, incredibly, hitting another shot at the green before we were all the way off (fortunately, he duffed his shot).

We let the obnoxious locals play through on the next hole (as we would have anyway). We were certainly tempted to cheer when the guy--who had an Aussie accent--hit his tee shot into the marsh.

After that, things got downright ugly. Over the next few holes the course marshal told us we needed to speed up, despite the fact that no one was pressing behind us and, of course, we'd had to wait while the "members" played through. At the turn, the marshal again told us we needed to speed up. So I checked my watch and found we were only five minutes behind the recommended time for playing nine holes. Surely we wasted five minutes letting asshole Aussie and his wife play through.

So here's some advice for the folks who run Osprey Point: folks who pay more than $125 a round to play golf on a difficult course really don't want to be harassed by obnoxious staff, especially when there's no back-up on the course. The Curmudgeon is all for eliminating slow play, but that's not the same as rushing people to play fast.

There were other problems reflecting shoddy course management as well, such as large bunkers with no rakes, or just one broken rake. We can get that at the local muni for just $20.

Our recommendation: Osprey is a great course to play, but be prepared for a chilly reception.

Turtle Point: The Great Grind

The last course we played at Kiawah was Turtle Point, a Jack Nicklaus design that winds among the homes closer to the beach and includes three holes right along the beach.

Turtle Point is a very tough challenge. Fairways are pretty narrow, with out-of-bounds along many holes, often on both sides.

The problem with Turtle Point--and we've played it many times over the years--is that it just isn't any fun. The three holes along the beach are pretty, but with the wind usually up and absolutely no room for error on either side they are quite difficult for the average hacker like us.

The rest of the holes aren't much better. Sooner or later, you're going to hit it out of bounds, perhaps several times. The greens are large and fast, resulting in many a long putt and many a three-putt.

Turtle Point was in good shape and we didn't encounter anyone obnoxious during our round (although we did have to load our own carts in the morning--we don't mind doing so, but we do mind having the same guys who ignored our bags in the morning fawning over us for tips when we finish the day).

We did enjoy playing past our beach house and shouting out to the kids playing on the beach as we teed off on number 15.

Bottom line: if you want a real challenge that will probably grind you down, go for it. But try not to make it your last course of the week!

Ocean Course: A True Gem

In contrast to Osprey and Turtle, the Ocean Course was a true delight. (Of course, you pay a premium here--just over $200 for players staying at the resort, more if you stay through an off-island agency.)

The Ocean Course is a Pete Dye design, cut into the sand dunes at the sparsely populated northern end of the island. It is ranked 38th on Golf Digest's list of top 100 courses in the U.S. Many will recall the 1991 Ryder Cup played at the Ocean Course, dubbed the "War by the Shore" and decided on the last putt.

Practically every hole is beautiful to the eye. On many tees you can see the ocean, and often you feel isolated in the dunes. There is no out of bounds at the Ocean Course.

A few homes--most of extraordinary architecture--pop up here and there, but they are nowhere near the course.

There are also no paved cart paths--the paths are sand, and any ball that ends up there is played where it lies. None of the sand--even greenside bunkers--is considered a hazard, so one is allowed to ground his club in the sand. On the other hand, there is a LOT of sand, including enormous waste bunkers on some holes.

When the wind blows--and it usually does--things can get especially challenging, with five or six holes going into the prevailing wind, followed by five or six with the wind at your back.

When we played, the course was in immaculate condition from tee to green.

Better yet, after our experience at Osprey Point, every member of the staff was downright friendly and professional. They had learned how to keep the pace moving while keeping everyone happy. At one point, the marshal came up, chatted with us briefly, asked us what we thought of the course and then said, quite politely and with a smile, "okay guys, you're leading the pack out here, so keep it up." We did have an open hole in front of us, but the group behind us was a hole back. We didn't feel pressured, and we're sure the folks at the Ocean Course know the difficulty can cause folks to take awhile to get through a hole.

Anyway, every hole was a challenge, but it was fun and we had a good time.

Recommendation: Play the Ocean Course!

Other Kiawah Golf

Kiawah does have two other public golf courses (and two private courses we hope to play some day).

One is Cougar Point, a pleasant Gary Player design. Easier than Turtle and Osprey, Cougar is still quite a challenge and features some beautiful holes along the marsh. We've played Cougar many times in the past, but not this year (it was being aerated). Not a bad warm-up for the week.

The other is Oak Point, which is off the island, across the Kiawah River. Play Oak Point only if you're on a budget. There is nothing impressive about it and it tends to be really hot, isolated from the usual sea-breeze on Kiawah. For some reason, the designer decided to ignore the marsh and river and isolate the holes from both rather than integrate them into the design. Small homes crowd many of the fairways. Frankly, you'd be better off driving over to the public courses on nearby Seabrook Island.

Alright, that's it for Kiawah. Next, a few highlights on camping/hiking in the NC mountains (with maybe a political interlude). 

Kiawah: The Perfect Family Resort

Over the next few days the Curmudgeon will review some of the highlights (and lowlights) of our recent travels across the South.

Today is part one of our review of Kiawah Island, South Carolina.

Kiawah bills itself as a golf resort, but really ought to call itself a family resort. True, Kiawah does have a fantastic collection of golf courses (more on that tomorrow), but unlike some golf resorts we've visited there is oh so much more to Kiawah.

Now, in case you're wondering, this was our tenth straight summer with a week at Kiawah, so obviously we were sold long ago. We're pretty sure we'll be back again next year. We have quite a few friends who regularly go back to Kiawah year in and year out as well.

What makes Kiawah so special for families?

To start with, there is the island's well-preserved natural beauty. The whole island is one resort community, so there is consistency throughout. Apart from the usual well-manicured landscaping of any resort community, Kiawah has managed to preserve the natural maritime forest to a large degree. As a result, you will feel like you're staying in a nature preserve.

Kids love seeing all the alligators, the deer at dusk, the various lizards and salamanders, the dolphins, the fiddler crabs and the various seabirds--herons, egrets, pelicans and quite a few others. There is also the excitement of the more occasional finds, such as the bobcat we saw three years ago, the occasional snake (our friend encountered a deadly coral snake on the golf course this year), sea turtles and other critters of the deep. (We weren't fond of the live welks--like a conch, only smaller--lurking in the surf with very sharp shells that cut the curmudgeon's feet three times.)

Getting around is also easy: the entire island is covered with bike paths; everything is flat and you can ride on the beach as well. All one needs to get around is a one-speed beach bike, which is easily rented at a reasonable rate.

Then, there's the beach, which like most beaches in South Carolina is wide and flat with gentle surf and toddler friendly tide pools. We invited some friends this year who'd spent most of their beach vacations at Ocean City in Maryland and Rehoboth/Bethany in Delaware, and they were awed by Kiawah's uncrowded, pristine beach, nearly a hundred yards wide at low tide. The water is warm and most days the kids can cavort in the surf without fear of being swept away.

Kiawah's amenities are also terrific. Like many resorts, Kiawah has a kid's camp where you can dump your kids (not that we ever have), but unlike most resorts it also has a huge range of family friendly activities you can do WITH your kids. In effect, it's like a family camp. (You can also put your kids into activities on an a la carte basis.)

Activities include a range of outdoor programs such as guided family canoeing and kayaking (in the marshes behind the island), family fishing and crabbing, nature walks, and various nature demonstrations. There are also a range of craft activities, such as creating tye-die shirts, and teen activities (no parents, please!) such as a nighttime pool party.

Every evening includes a family-oriented event, usually free or inexpensive, such as a magician/ice cream social (this year, the adults reported the magician was quite good), an oyster roast, the Kiawah Karnival, and a goofy kazoo guy who little kids just adore.

Kiawah has also integrated the family fun into golf with its terrific Family Tee Program. Every night, starting at 6:00 pm (we wish they'd start a tad earlier), four of the golf courses reserve tee times, spaced 15 minutes apart, just for families. Everyone plays from family-friendly tees well forward of the ladies tees, and the cost is low.

Tennis is also a hidden gem at Kiawah, with a terrific facility, great staff, extensive programs and, once again, family-friendly options.

For people in the DC area, Kiawah is pretty accessible--about a 9-10 hour drive by car, or an easy flight to Charleston's tiny airport, followed by a 45 minute drive.

Lodging isn't cheap, but if you check out the various villa options, particularly from off-island rental companies (easily found on the internet), you can find perfectly reasonable accomodations.

Or, do like us: bring a huge family group, rent one of Kiawah's large distinctive oceanfront homes, pay through the nose and have a great time.

On the curmudgeonly side, we don't have much to say (until we get to the golf course, tomorrow). Options for eating out are quite limited. It gets pretty hot and quite humid during the day, but there's always a breeze. It often rains, briefly but intensely, late in the day (but we've never had a rainy week in ten years there). Charleston is a bit of a hike--45 minutes of driving--but certainly worth an evening for a great dinner (or a visit to the minor league River Dogs baseball stadium or Battery soccer venue).

Our biggest complaint is usually that the week ends far too soon.

Tomorrow: Kiawah golf. 

We're Back Home!

The Curmudgeon is home again, after two weeks on the road. We have a lot to report, but not tonight.

For now, just this: the ol' car thermometer (which is pretty darn reliable) hit 106 degrees today while tooling through Richmond.

And this: in South Carolina, if you don't want anyone purchasing the property next to yours, evidently you put signs all over your property saying "Posted: Rifle Range" Just to be on the safe side, you fire your shotgun a couple times a day as well.

We wonder if that would work on our one eighth of an acre in Arlington, Virginia?